Introduction
In the first iteration of the Beating the Odds article for the 2020 NFL season, it is important to establish a few key concepts that will come up repeatedly throughout the season. First and foremost, all bets will be recommended with an accompanying unit amount, typically somewhere between 0.5 and 2.0 units. One unit should equate to approximately one-percent of your allotted bankroll that you use for wagering across various sports. Arguably the most important aspect of being a winning sports bettor is proper bankroll management. By wagering in accordance with the recommended unit amounts-- totaling to a small percentage of your bankroll each week- this will ensure that you are never risking more than you can afford to lose. Additionally, the sports betting market is just that, a market. Markets typically tend towards efficiency, especially when the market price- or betting line in this case- is established by many players risking large sums of money to establish the price. Historically, the most accurate estimate of what the true price, or most accurate pregame projection of a game, is determined by the closing line of the game. The betting limits for games increase as more information, in the form of wagers, becomes available to bookmakers later in the week. Subsequently, the betting line movements leading up to kickoff ultimately move the betting line into the most efficient place. Using the closing line, calculating closing line value becomes a fantastic measurement of a sound process in sports betting. Beating the closing line, or betting on a game at a better number than the game closes at, is extremely difficult, but also typically leads to sustainable long-term success. One hypothetical example of beating the closing line would be betting on the Kansas City Chiefs at -4 on Friday afternoon when the line closes at -5.5. Here, the most efficient number is deemed to be -5.5, leaving the bettor with 1.5 points of closing value. Another hypothetical example, conversely, would be betting on the Carolina Panthers at +7 on Friday afternoon when the line closes at +4 at kickoff. In this example, there would be 3 points of closing line value for the wager on Carolina. As previously stated, consistently registering bets with positive closing line value is a great signal of a bettor who should find success in the future. This season, closing line value will be tracked for all recommended wagers, along with the win-loss and profit-loss totals. Now, without further adieu, let’s dive into this slate of games as we welcome the long-awaited return of professional football this weekend.
Las Vegas Raiders (-3, -105) @ Carolina Panthers | Total: 47.5
Pick: Las Vegas Raiders -3 (-105), risk 1.05 units to win 1.0 unit
The Las Vegas Raiders head to Carolina to take on the Panthers to start a 2020 campaign where both teams seek to end multi-year playoff droughts. Unfortunately, however, expectations are low on both sides of this matchup, as Carolina enters this season with a new head coach, Matt Rhule, and the Las Vegas Raiders have yet to sniff success with Jon Gruden at the helm. For the Raiders, however, the immediate future is brighter thanks to stability, veteran leadership, and critical additions at skill positions on their offense. In the 2020 NFL Draft, the Raiders added multiple pass-catchers in the first three rounds, where the vast majority of immediately-impactful players are drafted. The most notable of Las Vegas’ additions is the speedster rookie wide receiver Henry Ruggs III. At the NFL combine, Ruggs III registered one of the fastest 40-yard dash times of all-time at 4.27 seconds. At Alabama, in a loaded receiving corps, Ruggs III registered a total of 24 receiving touchdowns across 3 seasons on a staggering 17.5 yards-per-catch. Ruggs III’s speed should add a much-needed threat on the outside to a passing attack that was desperate for someone to step up alongside tight end Darren Waller, who broke out in 2019 to the tune of over 1,100 receiving yards on 90 receptions. Even in an offense devoid of a second pass-catcher able to clear 700 receiving yards, quarterback Derek Carr flew under the radar during a highly-efficient season throwing the football. Carr ended the 2019 season ranked ninth in the NFL in adjusted-net-yards-per-attempt, a metric that factors touchdowns and turnovers into per-pass-attempt efficiency. In 2020, behind one of the league’s top offensive lines, Carr, and the Raiders’ passing attack as a whole, have the potential for another efficient, and more explosive, season through the air thanks to the inclusion of Henry Ruggs III into the offense, in addition to the expected development of young producers like Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller. On the opposite side of the football, the Carolina Panthers are set to field the youngest defense of any team in the NFL across the last 10 seasons, with an expected average age of about 23.45 years old for their starters. The next-youngest defense throughout the last decade of NFL football was the 2018 Cleveland Browns, whose defense ranked amongst the league’s worst in numerous metrics that season. Expectations for the Panthers on the defensive side of the football are low, to say the least, especially early in the season when they go up against top-tier offensive lines like that of the Las Vegas Raiders.
On the opposite side of the football, even bigger changes are in store for the Carolina Panthers’ offense. The Panthers welcome in a new head coach, offensive coordinator, and quarterback this season. Given the lack of normalcy to the offseason preceding the 2020 season, it is reasonable to expect a steep learning curve for an offense attempting to install an entirely new offense with a new signal-caller in the huddle. Down the line, going from Kyle Allen to Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback and from Scott Turner to Joe Brady at offensive coordinator will almost certainly lead to improved results on the offensive side of the football for Carolina. However, immediate results are likely to lag behind league-average marks. One note that surely falls on the “pros” side of any pros and cons list for Carolina’s offense is the return of Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey signed a well-earned contract extension over the offseason that is slated to earn him an average of $16-million over the course of the 4 seasons following the expiration of his rookie deal. Unfortunately, his contributions have provided very little by way of winning football games, as he posted unprecedented numbers throughout the 2019 season en-route to just a five-win season. Although he is undoubtedly amongst the best, and most impactful, players in the NFL at the running back position, modern football games typically are not won on the back of a potent rushing attack. For the Raiders, their 2019 defense was an exceptionally young unit, much like the 2020 Panthers. This weekend, the Raiders are projected to start four players that enter their second NFL season, and although the results were underwhelming last season, it is reasonable to expect improvement on that side of the football from these early draft picks. Overall, the Raiders ranked as a bottom-ten unit in the NFL last season in terms of scoring defense. This year, while their expectations should be tempered, as a unit that is still young and developing, they project to trend towards league-average numbers on that side of the football.
In sum, the spread on this game should be about Las Vegas -5.5, which means a 1.0-unit wager on the Raiders is in store here for Week 1 at -3 (-105) at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints (-3.5, -110) | Total: 48
Pick: New Orleans Saints -3.5 (-110), risk 1.25 units to win 1.14 units
One of the hottest storylines of the offseason, and rightfully so, has been the retooled Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense after adding the likes of Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, and others ahead of the 2020 season. The impact of these additions, however, may be overstated at the current point in each player’s respective career, and expectations for the Buccaneers have likely outgrown what reason and logic would suggest. While Tom Brady is certainly an all-time great at the quarterback position, skepticism surrounding his production in his age-43 season as he enters a new offensive system on a new team for the first time in his career is warranted. Last year, Brady ranked 17th out of 33 qualified NFL quarterbacks in adjusted-net-yards-per-attempt, almost exactly league average. Now, Brady enters this season with an entirely new corps of pass-catchers in a new offensive system, and this is a situation primed for father time, who remains undefeated, to make his presence felt. Additionally, on the outside, Mike Evans apparently appeared on the injury report earlier this week with a hamstring injury he picked up in practice that may potentially keep him sidelined for the season opener. With only Chris Godwin as an established threat on the outside, expect Tampa Bay’s Week 1 offense to be much less dynamic and exciting than it may be at its peak this year. Next, looking at New Orleans’ defense, the bulk of the impact players from their 2019 unit that ranked in the top third of the league in many team defensive metrics will return to start for the team in 2020. While defense, on the whole, is exceptionally difficult to predict year-to-year given the nuance and context required to evaluate that side of the football, it is tough to imagine a world where this unit with top-end talent in the trenches, linebacking corps, and secondary, flops and ends up a below-average defense. Specifically, looking at the defensive line with an established stud like Cameron Jordan and an up-and-coming star like Marcus Davenport, the Saints should consistently win the battle in the trenches, which is arguably the most impactful piece of the pie that makes up a football game.
On the offensive side of the football for the New Orleans Saints, they are primed to remain a top-end scoring unit that threatens to light up the scoreboard on a weekly basis. Many of the established stars in this offense, like Drew Brees, Michael Thomas, and Alvin Kamara are known commodities. However, the upside for this unit is undeniably higher in 2020 than it was last year, given the addition of veteran wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders. Sanders adds a second potent receiving threat on the outside to compliment Michael Thomas, unlike anything that has been featured in this offense in recent years. Sanders’ impact on San Francisco’s offense last season, when he was acquired via midseason trade, was evident, as he finished the season ranked third on the team in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns while only playing in parts of 10 games for the team. Sanders’ ability to run the entire route tree effectively will force teams to respect a secondary receiving target on the outside, potentially opening up the field for improved efficiency for Michael Thomas and Drew Brees. While age was noted above as a cause for concern with Tom Brady, the worries for his counterpart in this game, Drew Brees, are far smaller. Brees’ efficiency under-center has not dwindled to this point in his career, as he finished the 2019 season as the third-best quarterback in the NFL in adjusted-net-yards-per-attempt. Additionally, the stability of a consistent offensive scheme and coaching staff for the Saints’ offense offer significantly less downside for the Saints’ passing attack than that of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Lastly, for the Saints’ offense, their offensive line ranked amongst the league’s best units in 2019, as they fielded five above-average starters for the vast majority of the season. This year, they return four players from that starting unit, while they usher in Cesar Ruiz, a first-round selection out of Michigan, as their new projected starter at right guard. Expect this unit to keep Drew Brees clean in the pocket and open up sizable rushing lanes for Alvin Kamara as this Saints offense posts top-end efficiency numbers in all phases of the game. Opposite New Orleans’ offense, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ defense started the 2019 season as a surprisingly-strong unit that ranked amongst the league’s best units for the first half of the year. Then, reality set in as the defense regressed closer to the league-average levels that many would have reasonably expected. The Bucs will return the bulk of their impact players in their front-seven, however, this was the exact unit that was the driving force behind their early-season overperformance last year. Looking at Shaquil Barrett, the team’s top edge-rusher, while his 2019 season was undeniably impressive, as he led the NFL with 19.5 sacks, his underlying numbers signal an overperforming and highly-opportunistic edge rusher. On the year, Barrett registered a total of 44 hurries on opposing quarterbacks, of which he converted nearly half into sacks. This ratio is highly unsustainable, and it would not come as a surprise to anybody to see his sack tally come down to earth this year and settle in the low-to-mid teens. Elsewhere in the defense, the Buccaneers will incorporate rookie safety Antoine Winfield, Jr. into their secondary. Expectations for Winfield, Jr., a rookie first-round draft pick out of Minnesota are high, and there is no reason to expect him to be a liability, but he also does not project to make the Buccaneers’ overall pass defense immediately better in Week 1 of the 2020 season. On the whole, the known strength of the New Orleans Saints’ offense trumps the approximately-league-average projection for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ defense.
In total, the New Orleans Saints project to be closer seven-point favorites in this clash between NFC South rivals as they play host (without a crowd) to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who dominated offseason headlines by adding big, and likely overrated, names to their offense. A 1.25 unit wager on the New Orleans Saints at -3 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook is the play on this matchup.
Seattle Seahawks (-3, -103) @ Atlanta Falcons | Total: 49
Pick: Atlanta Falcons +3 (-120), risk 1.2 units to win 1.0 unit
The Atlanta Falcons enter this season as one of the highest-upside offenses thanks to their combination of established studs and high-upside talents throughout the unit. The Matt Ryan-Julio Jones connection is undeniably one of the best quarterback-wide receiver pairings in the NFL, and there is no reason to think their top-end production will slow this year. Additionally, opposite Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley emerged late in the 2019 season as a player primed for a full-blown breakout here in his third season in the NFL. Across the final four games of the season last year, which is a notable window because it also aligns with when he assumed a full-time role following the trade of Mohamed Sanu to the Patriots, Ridley averaged 6.75 receptions-per-game on 9.25 targets-per-game, which he converted into 98.75 yards-per-game and 3 total scores. This emergence adds a much-needed threat opposite Julio Jones to command attention from defenses and open up the field for the passing game to thrive as a whole. Also, the Falcons’ offensive line lacked consistency and was unable to stay healthy. After a full offseason, which included the selection of Matt Hennessy, an offensive lineman, in the third round of the 2020 NFL Draft, this unit should be expected to improve and keep Matt Ryan upright in the pocket far more often. Opposite this offense, the Seattle Seahawks’ defense is an aging unit in the front-seven. The team attempted to solve this issue by drafting a linebacker in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft. However, the team whiffed on all accounts by selecting Jordyn Brooks out of Texas Tech, a player widely projected to be a talent worthy of selection in the third round or later. Brooks appears as a backup on Seattle’s first, and unofficial, depth chart, but the fact that he has yet to crack the starting lineup is a bad sign for a unit that is losing Jadeveon Clowney, one of the league’s top pass-rushers when healthy, up-front. While the addition of Jamal Adams is certainly an impactful one, asking him to take this defense from bottom-10 to top-10 in the league in total defense or passing defense is unreasonable. On the whole, the edge in this battle of offense-versus-defense slants in favor of the Atlanta Falcons by a fair margin.
On the offensive side of the ball for the Seattle Seahawks, the 2019 season featured levels of timely efficiency that can only be described as “likely unsustainable” going forward. Russell Wilson turned in a season that in a non-Lamar Jackson/Patrick Mahomes II world, likely would have earned him the MVP award. Wilson posted a remarkable 31-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio on the year, and while that in and of itself may not be particularly unsustainable for a player of his caliber, after peeling back the layers of how he got there, there’s cause for concern. Wilson’s efficiency, specifically on third-downs, was so incredibly high that regression is practically inevitable. In every previous case of such efficiency, even in the case of similarly-elite quarterbacks, the player has come back down to earth in subsequent seasons. Although he is equipped with two top-end pass-catchers on the outside with D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, the lack of a competent offensive line and notably poor play-calling may limit the production for the Seattle aerial attack in the 2020 season. In the trenches, the Seahawks, who struggled with pass-protection last year, will replace three-fifths of their starting unit along the offensive line without making any definitive improvements at any position in the group. Lastly, for Seattle, their offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer has become notorious for mind-boggling play-calls that consistently take the ball out of their best player’s hands and lean on a rushing attack whose efficiency pales in comparison to the team’s passing game. Overall, this is a unit that is far too run-heavy for what anybody would hope for with a perennial MVP candidate at quarterback. For Atlanta, on the defensive side of the football, they appear to have essential additions to a unit that ranked bottom-10 in the league almost across the board last year. The two most notable acquisitions for the Falcons ahead of the 2020 season for this team are edge-rusher Dante Fowler, Jr., whom they signed as a free agent following about 1.5 seasons with the Rams as a productive disruptor along the outside, and A.J. Terrell, a rookie cornerback out of Clemson whom the Falcons drafted in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft. Fowler slots into the void left by the departure of Vic Beasley Jr, Jr. along the defensive line, where he projects to be far more impactful than Beasley, Jr. was during the latter part of his tenure with the Falcons. In the secondary, Terrell joins a unit that was decimated by injuries and picked apart by opposing quarterbacks throughout the 2020 season. On the whole, this is a unit that is likely to hover between slightly-below-average and league-average, but with the upside to improve upon their bottom-tier rankings from yesteryear.
In sum, the respective edge that each offense has over the opposing defense should approximately cancel out, giving each team approximately a 50-percent chance to win this game. With the game projecting as a near-pick’em, there is value betting on the Atlanta Falcons to cover the spread of +3 (-120) at DraftKings Sportsbook, risking 1.2 units to win 1.0 unit.
Summary of Picks
-Las Vegas Raiders -3 (-105), risk 1.05 units to win 1.0 unit
-New Orleans Saints -3.5 (-110), risk 1.25 units to win 1.13 units
-Atlanta Falcons +3 (-120), risk 1.2 units to win 1.0 unit
Survivor Pool Rankings
Use these rankings to make your selections in any survivor pools that allow you to alter picks that don’t include the Thursday Night Football matchup. The following picks are ranked in order of confidence, ranging from most-likely to win to least-likely to win outright- not cover the spread.
Top 10 Survivor Picks
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Buffalo Bills (vs. New York Jets)
The Bills established themselves as a potential force in the AFC for years to come in 2019. Ultimately, they will go as far as quarterback Josh Allen takes them, but in the immediate future, Stefon Diggs will add a possession wide receiver to an offense that thrived on chunk-plays through the air last year. The chaos surrounding Adam Gase and the New York Jets does not inspire confidence, and the Bills are likely to handle this game from start-to-finish.
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Baltimore Ravens (vs. Cleveland Browns)
Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens dominated the 2019 regular season, unlike any other team. While they flopped come playoff time, analytically-sound in-game decision-making and shrewd offseason moves adding depth throughout the offense and defense should keep this team atop the AFC North standings, a rung above their Week 1 counterparts, the Cleveland Browns.
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Indianapolis Colts (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)
An upgrade at quarterback, signing Philip Rivers in free agency to replace Jacoby Brissett should ultimate increase both the floor and ceiling outcomes for the Indianapolis Colts this year. Conversely, the Jacksonville Jaguars cleaned house this offseason, unloading talented players on both sides of the football with one eye on the future. Expectations are low in Jacksonville and the Colts should have no trouble starting the season with a victory.
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New England Patriots (vs. Miami Dolphins)
Although there is a changing of the guard on the field for New England, with Cam Newton starting under-center following the departure of Tom Brady, the Patriots are still expected to compete for an AFC East championship in 2020, as they have done with various replacement quarterbacks in the past. While the Dolphins likely have their quarterback-of-the-future in the building entering this season, Tua Tagovailoa is not yet the starting quarterback and expectations should be tempered for this team early in the season.
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Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. New York Giants)
The Pittsburgh Steelers get Ben Roethlisberger back this season for a definitive upgrade at the quarterback position compared to their 2019 production under-center, and with emerging young pass-catchers, they project to be a much stronger offensive unit than they were last year. On New York’s side of the ball, head coach Joe Judge has done little, if anything, to earn the confidence of analysts through the handling of his first training camp as the head coach of a football team. Expect little from the New York Giants overall this year as they attempt to build around Daniel Jones, a young quarterback who proved he was not ready for the limelight during his rookie season.
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San Francisco 49ers (vs. Arizona Cardinals)
The San Francisco 49ers proved to be amongst the league’s elite last season en-route to a Super Bowl appearance where they ultimately came up short. There is little reason to expect them to fall off in 2020, as they return key producers on both sides of the football with elite play-callers on the sidelines for both units. On Arizona’s side of the football, Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray enter their second professional season together, and while the sky is the limit for this team in the long-run, immediately contending against the class of the NFC West is too much to ask.
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New Orleans Saints (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
The Saints finished the 2019 season as one of the league’s most-impressive teams on both sides of the football. They should not miss a beat this season following the addition of Emmanuel Sanders to an already-explosive offense to pair with a top-10 defense. Much has been made of the Buccaneers’ offseason acquisitions, but there is much more bark than bite backing these moves up. An aging Tom Brady and a potentially-depleted receiving corps should pose little threat to the Saints here in Week 1.
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Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Washington Football Team)
The Philadelphia Eagles struggled to stay healthy throughout the 2019 season on both sides of the football. Now, following an offseason to get back close to full-strength and strengthen a notably poor receiving corps, they are primed to contend for an NFC East title once again. Conversely, the Washington Football Team lagged behind the rest of the division in 2019, and are likely to do so once again as they find out whether or not Dwayne Haskins truly is the future under-center for the franchise now with Ron Rivera hired to take over their head coaching duties.
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Las Vegas Raiders (vs. Carolina Panthers)
The Las Vegas Raiders posted a subtly efficient season on the offensive side of the football in 2019, and with the addition of dynamic playmakers like Henry Ruggs III, the ceiling for this unit is far higher than in the past. Opposite them, the Panthers will field a historically young defense while simultaneously attempting to get going on the offensive side of the football with a new head coach, offensive coordinator, and quarterback. Expect the Panthers to start slow this year and improve as the season goes along, while the Raiders come out firing.
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Tennessee Titans (vs. Denver Broncos)
News came down earlier this week that edge-rusher Von Miller was lost for the season due to a freak ankle injury he sustained in practice. Without Miller to lead what was expected to be a strong pass-rush, the Broncos’ defense is likely to struggle to apply pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Expect Ryan Tannehill and the Tennessee Titans to prey on this weakness en-route to a comfortable Week 1 victory as they attempt to build upon an unexpected playoff run in 2019.
Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any comments or questions ahead of this weekend's slate of games @ThaGreatZambino