The lesson coming out of Week 5 is to expect the unexpected. It sounds generic, but then again, Tuesday Night Football and multiple schedule adjustments for a single week of postponements wasn’t on everyone’s radar at the start of the season. The pandemic has forced us all into considering secondary and tertiary options, but none of us are immune to a promising projection followed by a disappointing result. Week 5 was filled with drama, injuries, and high scores from start to finish but I found some of the worst performances of the week the lessons we can learn going into Week 6.
Quarterback: Matt Ryan, Falcons
Week 5 Results: 21.7 (Projected), 6.9 (Actual)
Matt Ryan’s fantasy outlook appears to be tied to the health of his receivers. Julio Jones was expected out for Week 5, but the offense still had some semblance of functionality. Calvin Ridley was healthy and Atlanta’s ancillary skill players (e.g. Olamide Zaccheaus, Russell Gage) had at least shown flashes of relevance in previous weeks. But Ryan’s output had taken a dramatic hit over the previous two weeks. He had taken 6 sacks in his contests against the Bears and Packers and only thrown a single touchdown. But the fantasy community considered his risk to be minimized as the Falcons were set to host the Panthers. Heading into Week 5, the Panthers were 30th in adjusted sack rate (4.0%) and had generated a single interception prior to facing Atlanta. Carolina’s defensive secondary had surrendered 3 passing touchdowns to Kyler Murray in Week 4 and 330 passing yards to Justin Herbert in Week 3. Ryan’s game environment set up for at least a floor performance, but the results were an anchor to fantasy rosters. He’s averaged 10.2 fantasy points over his last three games so this isn’t a one-game disappointment. The fall from grace from one of the perennial QB1s warranted a deeper dive and if Ryan should be on in our starting lineups moving forward.
Advice Moving Forward:
Ryan can’t be reliably rostered in 1QB leagues until the offense stabilizes. Julio is the obvious piece, but the issues extend past the health of their primary receiver. Ryan’s been on target for 69.6% of his attempts (24th amongst all starters) and has a -0.5% Completion Percentage over Expected through five weeks. He’s been even worse under pressure with an on-target rate of just 50.9% of his attempts with Julio out. But the Falcons’ playcalling shares some of the blame, too. Last season, Atlanta passed on 60% of their plays on second down. This year that same rate is down to 52.6% and it’s dropped to 47.3% over the last three weeks. Their third-down conversion rate is 6th-worst in the league (34.2%) which has limited their offensive drives to just 34.7 (18th). It’s possible the removal of Dan Quinn resets the offense, but Ryan doesn’t offer any fantasy utility outside of his passing. He’ll typically project well from a volume standpoint as Atlanta has maintained the third-highest passing rate in neutral situations (61.6%), but the results tell us otherwise. The Falcons face Minnesota, Detroit, and Carolina over the next three weeks which are viable for matchups for Ryan to get back on track. If you have the roster space, he can be held on your bench for a viable streamer. If not, it’s time to look at other options available on the wire.
Running Back: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chiefs
Week 5 Results: 19.7 (Projected), 11.0 (Actual)
Week 1 almost feels like it never happened. After his 138-yard debut, Edwards-Helaire needed two and a half games to get back to his Week 1 rushing yardage total. His 16.0% target share has kept his value afloat, but the touchdown column remains empty on his stat sheet for the last month of games. We can forgive some of his performances based on their opponents. The Chargers, Ravens, and Patriots are in the Top 12 for schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to running backs. We lowered our expectations each week while waiting for the targets to come his way. But Week 5 set up well for Edward-Helaire. Las Vegas is 29th in aFPA. They had allowed either a 100-yard rusher or multiple rushing touchdowns to every team this season. Kansas City was heavily favored. It was Edwards-Helaire's best chance to get back into the endzone since Week 1. The Chiefs, and most of the fantasy community, wasn’t ready for the Raiders. Edwards matched his season-low in touches and was kept out of the paint for the fourth week in a row. His declining output has us all wondering what to expect from the rookie and the Chiefs’ offense after their first loss. I dug into it a bit with some takeaways.
Advice Moving Forward:
If you can cheaply trade for Edwards-Helaire, send the offer. Otherwise, Edwards-Helaire falls to a low-end RB1. Fantasy managers will find it difficult to identify another running back with Edwards-Helaire’s volume profile. His 108 total touches are tied for fourth amongst all starters, but his opportunity gets even better when you get down to the team level. He’s earned 82.7% of the rushing attempts with a 14.0% target share in one of the best offenses in the league. The only other player with a similar workload is Ezekiel Elliott (87.3% rushing share, 13.2% target share). However, Elliott is the RB3 after Week 5 while Edwards-Helaire sits at RB12. The clear differentiator is the rookie’s red zone opportunity and effectiveness. Just 2 of his 27 targets have come from within the 20-yard line. Demarcus Robinson has 3. With Kansas City’s multitude of options, it’s expected the rookie may not be Patrick Mahomes II’ favorite target when needed. But, Edwards-Helaire has to do better on his running when the team is in scoring position. He’s had 16 attempts inside the 20 and 10 of those attempts were run inside the 10-yard line. He’s yet to convert a score from this area of the field. For context, Edwards-Helaire is the only running back in the league with 10 attempts from within the 10-yard line to not score a touchdown. Positive regression should be coming for Edwards-Helaire if his opportunity remains consistent moving forward. There is some concern regarding Kansas City’s offensive line, but Edwards-Helaire should continue to be a valuable asset moving forward.
Wide Receiver: JuJu Smith-Schuster, Steelers
Week 5 Results: 13.3 (Projected), 6.8 (Actual)
Smith-Schuster looked like he was set to re-enter the WR1 conversation from Week 1. His 24.9 points and 2 touchdowns were exactly what fantasy managers need to see to confirm our offseason prior of his connection to Ben Roethlisberger. But his peripheral numbers were a concern. He was second in target share (19%) to Diontae Johnson, fifth in air yard market share (14%), and his aDOT was also fifth (5.2). His usage out of the slot dictated his aDOT, but the additional pass catchers had an immediate impact on Smith-Schuster’s opportunity within the Pittsburgh offense. His target share has reached 20% just once and his air yard share has fallen to 12%. Smith-Schuster was a draft target for most managers given his team situation (61.1% neutral passing rate) and perceived opportunity within the offense. Now, we’re left wondering what to do with Smith-Schuster after another disappointing performance in Week 5. Even in a game where Diontae Johnson left early with an injury, Juju still didn’t earn more work in favor of featuring Chase Claypool. Even worse, the Steelers shifted their plays to get Claypool (not Smith-Schuster) on a weaker interior defender for one of his touchdowns. Pittsburgh’s offense has a much more diverse attach than anticipated so we need to reassess Smith-Schuster’s value and what he can bring to our squads moving forward.
Advice Moving Forward:
A trade involving JuJu and a mid-level RB2 is worth considering. Otherwise, Juju should be considered a WR2 moving forward. JuJu Smith-Schuster’s usage isn’t that much different than last year. He had a 17.1% target share through the first eleven weeks of 2019 as the Steelers featured three different starting quarterbacks. The problem is that we believed Ben Roethlisberger’s return would elevate Smith-Schuster back to his 2017 status given his slot rate and Ben coming off of surgery. Diontae Johnson’s emergence along with the additions of Claypool and Eric Ebron relegate Smith-Schuster to WR2 status. But, there is some hope. Smith-Schuster does lead the team in red-zone targets despite getting half of them in Week 1. The Steelers are still above average in neutral passing and at the league average for passing while in scoring position. His volume should return to normal in the following weeks, but scoring opportunities may be capped given his competition for touches in that offense.
