Quarterback
Nick Foles, JAX (vs Tampa Bay) - Foles is two steps out on the plank going into the matchup with the Bucs, and there might not be room for another. The hope is that Foles, who seems to play his best with his back against the wall, will perk up against a very beatable Bucs pass defense. Even if Jacksonville wants to use a lot of Leonard Fournette, the Bucs stiff run defense will funnel the Jaguars offense to pass more, which will at least give Foles the chance to hit this week.
Carson Wentz, PHI (at Miami) - Only Brian Hoyer and Sam Darnold failed to post multiple scores against Miami, and their teams lost. Unless you think the Eagles are going down to Miami to lose, Wentz is a solid play this week despite his recent slump. Three quarterbacks have scored on the ground against the Dolphins, and the last two have at least three total scores.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, MIA (vs Philadelphia) - Fitzpatrick has accounted for multiple scores in four of his last six starts. In the two that he didn’t he posted a rushing score in one and a 300 yard passing game in the other. He has also scored on the ground in three of his last six starts and thrown for multiple scores in three of his last six starts. There a lot of paths to production for Fitzpatrick in a game that should see him play from behind against a defense that encourages opponents to pass.
Jared Goff, LAR (at Arizona) - Goff went ofer November in the passing touchdowns column, but he should get right against a Cardinals pass defense that has allowed more than half of the quarterbacks they have faced to throw for three or more touchdowns. Goff has been reliable in good matchups this year, with 517 passing yards and two scores against Tampa, 395 yards and a score against Seattle, 268 passing yards, two passing scores and one on the ground against Atlanta, and 372 passing yards and two scores against Cincinnati.
Running Back
Jalen Richard, OAK (at Kansas City) - The Raiders lost Hunter Renfrow to a broken rib and punctured lung last week, so it appears it is time for Jalen Richard to resume his role as the reliable short range target for Derek Carr. He had the same number of snaps as Josh Jacobs last week, and if the Raiders fall behind at Kansas City he could eclipse Jacobs participation this week. The Chiefs have given up five receiving scores to backs since Week 6 and two 100-yard receiving games to backs since Week 8.
Jay Ajayi, PHI (at Miami) - Jordan Howard could get cleared for contact and play in this one, ruining Ajayi’s sleeper status, but if he doesn’t Ajayi is set up for 15+ carries and goal line chances in a game the Eagles should win comfortably. The Dolphins have faced 26 or more running back rush attempts in each of the last three games, and multiple scores to opposing backs in four games this year.
Nyheim Hines, IND (vs Tennessee) - This one requires some rational coaching, but Frank Reich is usually on point and the Colts offense needs an infusion of speed and playmaking ability. The Titans are strong against the straight ahead run, but they have given up three receiving scores to running backs in the last five games. Hines season high in touches and total yards came last week, in the first game that the team gameplanned for without Marlon Mack this year.
Tarik Cohen, CHI (at Detroit) **Thanksgiving** - Cohen has his two highest touch totals of the season in the last two weeks and has scored in two of the last three weeks. His passing game involvement has gone up each of the last three weeks, and this week he faces a Lions defense that has already given up seven receiving scores to opposing backs this year, and three in the last three games. Only Washington failed to post at least 50 running back receiving yards or a running back receiving score against them this year.
Benny Snell, PIT (vs Cleveland) - It doesn’t look like James Conner will be back this week, so Snell will get another chance to carry the load against Cleveland. He has at least 75 total yards in both games that he has touched the ball at least 15 times this year, including new starter Devlin Hodges’ first start, when the Steelers backs ran the ball 33 times and caught eight of Hodges 15 completions. Snell wasn’t available in the first matchup with Cleveland, but a Steelers scored the only touchdown for the team in the loss.
Ronald Jones II, TB (at Jacksonville) - Jones is still in a committee with Peyton Barber, but he has the better half of it now and has scored in three of the last four games. The Jaguars run defense is crumbling, giving up five running back scores in the last three games, and at least 173 rushing yards to opposing backs in all three games. Running backs have even averaged over 14 yards a catch over the span. Jones should be able to take advantage of a very weary run defense.
Wide Receiver
Chris Conley, JAX (vs Tampa Bay) - Let’s give this one more spin. Conley has 8 and 9 targets in Nick Foles two games since returning, and he’s facing a secondary that has allowed 15 wide receiver scores since Week 6, surrendering multiple wide receiver scores in four of the last five games. Nine wide receivers have gone for 68 or more receiving yards against the Bucs in the last four games and eight have at least five catches.
Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, NYG (vs Green Bay) - Golden Tate is in concussion protocol and the team made a roster move to sign a punt returner in a sign that they don’t expect him to be available for Sunday’s game. Shepard should get back in the slot with Tate out and rack up catches. He had at least 99 total yards and seven receptions in the two games with Daniel Jones that Golden Tate missed this year. Slayton has been a big hit two of the last four weeks and was still a respectable 4-67 last week while Jones was struggling to throw downfield. The Packers secondary is vulnerable, allowing 92 yards and a score on only five wide receiver receptions in a blowout at San Francisco last week and at least 150 receiving yards to opposing wideouts in the two previous games, with a per reception average of over 16 yards.
Mecole Hardman, KC (vs Oakland) - Tyreek Hill should be back this week, but even if he is, Hardman should remain involved and there’s always the potential for Hill to aggravate his hamstring injury. Hill being out there for the whole game isn’t necessarily bad for Hardman, as he’ll draw one-on-one matchups he can burn all day. Hardman scored in the first meeting with the Raiders, and he has scored in the last two games he played with a healthy Hill and Patrick Mahomes II.
Anthony Miller, CHI (at Detroit) **Thanksgiving** - Miller is coming off of back-to-back games with six receptions, and he should dodge Darius Slay in this one. Slay might discourage Mitchell Trubisky from targeting Allen Robinson, and the Bears have no receiving tight end to speak of and will be without Taylor Gabriel this week. Gabriel put up a 4-39-1 line in the first matchup between these teams and Mitchell Trubisky is playing much better than he was going into that game, when he threw for a season-high three scores.
Mike Williams, LAC (at Denver) - Williams has been hit and miss (mostly miss) this year, but this week he has a shot at redemption with Chris Harris locking up Keenan Allen. He had his highest reception total (6) of the year in the first matchup (when Allen posted a measly 4-18) and a solid 74 yards. Cole Beasley, Olabisi Johnson, and Jarvis Landry have all had six receptions as the #2 wide receiver target in the last three Denver games, and Landry and Beasley scored.
Kelvin Harmon, WAS (at Carolina) - Paul Richardson Jr should miss Week 13 after aggravating a hamstring injury last week, which leaves Harmon freed up for starter snaps against Carolina. He posted a 5-53 two weeks ago when Richardson was out, and the Panthers gave up three wide receiver scores in the last two games and at least 150 receiving yards to opposing wideouts in each of the last four games, including 244 to the juggernaut Titans passing game.
Tight End
Tyler Higbee, LAR (at Arizona) - Gerald Everett came out of Week 12 with a knee injury that might open the door for Higbee to stay at 70 or more percent of snap participation for the third straight week. This is no ordinary week, as the Rams face the Cardinals, who have allowed 12 touchdowns to opposing tight ends this year. Ross Dwelley, OJ Howard, Rhett Ellison and TJ Hockenson have all scored against Arizona this year.
Jack Doyle, IND (vs Tennessee) - Doyle has new opportunity now that Eric Ebron is on injured reserve and it should be enhanced by TY Hilton still not being 100% coming back from a calf injury. The Titans have given up five scores to opposing tight ends this year, including one to Ebron in the first matchup between the teams.
David Njoku, CLE (at Pittsburgh) - Check to make sure Njoku is active for the game before starting him, but if you are desperate, he could be your answer. The Steelers gave up a score to tight end Stephen Carlson in the first matchup between the teams, and 12 receptions to Rams tight ends in the game before that. Hunter Henry and Will Dissly each scored twice against the Steelers and Jack Doyle also scored against them this season. Njoku also scored the only receiving touchdown in his only game this year.
Mike Gesicki, MIA (vs Philadelphia) - Gesicki is on a streak of four straight games with at least six targets, which is about all you can ask for from a streamer. He has scored (last week) and posted a 6-95 game in that span. This week he gets an Eagles defense that left Jacob Hollister wide open at the goal line only for Russell Wilson to overthrow him last week, and allowed Ben Watson to get over 50 receiving yards two weeks ago. Even Jimmy Graham and Vernon Davis have scored against the Eagles this year.
