A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. There is value available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out this value, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should outperform their draft position.
Player Receiving 4 Votes
Vance McDonald, Pittsburgh
Drew Davenport: Despite missing Week 1 and splitting time with Jesse James in 2018, McDonald was impressive. Last year the wasteland that was called the tight end position was unimpressive as a whole, but McDonald posted a top-10 finish even though he ceded 39 targets to James and his snap percentage hovered between 36% to 65% for all but two games. In fact, McDonald played just one snap more than James during the 2018 campaign. With James now gone, and more importantly, with Antonio Brown and his 169 targets gone as well, McDonald is in line for a bump in both snaps and targets just for showing up. Based on his current ADP McDonald should outperform his current slotting by a wide margin.
Dan Hindery: McDonald and Jesse James combined for 80 catches, 1,033 yards, and 6 touchdowns last season splitting time at tight end. With James now in Detroit, it isn’t crazy to think McDonald can take most or all of the 39 targets James vacated. The expected boost in targets could be even bigger with Antonio Brown out of town and his 168 targets from last season also up for grabs. We could easily see McDonald emerge as the #2 target in one of the league’s most pass-heavy offenses. With a current 10th-round ADP, McDonald is an absolute steal.
Dwain McFarland: If healthy, McDonald has a decent chance of matching the production of Hunter Henry and Evan Engram who go earlier than him. Without getting overly optimistic, he also has a chance to knock on the doorstep of the elite tight end tier of Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, and George Kittle. Why? If he only takes on the additional targets left behind by Jesse James he will approach 15% target share. In an offense that will be in the Top 5 in pass attempts that isn’t a bad baseline. If he picks up a few crumbs from Antonio Brown’s leftovers, he could see a 20% target share. In this offense, that would be around 120 targets. At current ADP, he is a steal.
Maurile Tremblay: McDonald should get more targets this season with Antonio Brown and Jesse James both having moved on to other teams. The Steelers aren't known for throwing to their tight ends a lot, so McDonald's upside potential is limited. But he played well last season and should get more opportunities this season, so a decent bump to his fantasy value seems likely.
Players Receiving 3 Votes
Trey Burton, Chicago
Will Grant: Last season Burton was a big part of the Chicago passing offense, and set career totals for receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns. He should be able to build on that for this season as well and maybe even exceed it. He had off-season surgery for a hernia, and the Chicago passing offense isn’t a 4000-yard unit, so Burton’s upside is limited. That being said, I still think he’s going to post decent numbers and is more of a ‘low tier 1 Tight End’ rather than the backup that his current ADP reflects.
Andy Hicks: Trey Burton finished his first season in Chicago as the sixth-ranked fantasy player at his position and now he is being taken outside the starting tight ends in early drafts? It seems an odd combination, especially as there will be little change in the offense in 2019. Sure, third-year man, Adam Shaheen might be fit, but Burton is the clear starter and will produce as such. If anything he could be even better in his second year on his new team and the familiarity on offense should breed even better results this season.
Jeff Pasquino: Trey Burton joined the Bears last season and finished as TE8 with a 54-569-6 stat line. QB Mitch Trubisky loved having a big target over the middle, especially in the red zone. Burton has a high conversion rate, catching 54 of 77 targets (70%) in his first year in Chicago. Not everyone is high on Burton with Adam Shaheen as the second tight end for the Bears, but Burton should be in line for a similar year in Chicago, making him a strong value tight end pick after the Top 8 are long gone. His upside is much higher than most tight ends available towards the bottom of the TE1 list this year.
Jared Cook, New Orleans
Ryan Hester: The wide receiver depth chart in New Orleans after Michael Thomas is an aging veteran and a second-year player who was inconsistent last year. Ted Ginn Jr and Tre-Quan Smith may split WR2 duties, but it’s possible that their targets totals combined don’t add up to Cook’s. Drew Brees has made TE1s in the past, and we don’t need to look any further back in history than last season to show that Cook can be a de facto WR2 for his team. He’s being drafted after less proven tight ends like O.J. Howard, Evan Engram, and Hunter Henry. Plus, he’s the bottom of the TE4-8 tier, and it’s always better to pick at the bottom of a tier than the top.
Chad Parsons: Cook is coming off a career year in Oakland, a rarity for a 30-plus tight end who has been a fantasy tease compared to his athletic potential over the years. Cook's 2019 cost has not risen much considering his landing with the Saints, an offense with WR2 question marks and fantasy optimizers Drew Brees and Sean Payton. Cook has a good chance to set a new career-high in touchdowns (just six to-date) and roam free down the stretch and on deep over routes as defenses justifiably cling to Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara.
Matt Waldman: Cook has matured enough to become a more consistent player. That's great news for Drew Brees and the Saints, and they intend to dust off the Jimmy Graham Section of the playbook for Cook. There's elite fantasy upside for Cook if this is true. There should be little concern for Cook’s competition on the depth chart. Rookie Alize Mack has great hands, but he is not a well-developed route runner. He might push for the third spot on the depth chart this year. Cook performed well last year in Oakland and for spurts with the Packers prior. Neither team offers the combination of quarterback and system fit that Cook will have in New Orleans.
Austin Hooper, Atlanta
Drew Davenport: The Falcons offense in 2019 is set up for success. Their defense looks like it will continue to be mediocre, they play more dome games than anyone in the league, and they have a lot of weapons. Acknowledging the fact that Hooper will be fighting with all of those weapons for targets, things haven't changed drastically from 2018. Dirk Koetter comes back to run the offense, but the last time he was in Atlanta he had no problem featuring a good tight end by the name of Tony Gonzalez. Likewise in Tampa Bay, Koetter utilized his tight ends frequently. Hooper has nothing to fear from the coaching change, and as one of the mouths to feed on a good offense Hooper quietly put up a Top 6 season last year. His ADP looks more like his floor at this point, so draft him happily after all the trendy picks have been made and he'll be in a great spot to deliver.
Jeff Haseley: After Week 10, Austin Hooper was ranked 7th among all tight ends in PPR scoring. His 35 receptions in that span were fourth among the group. He may be the 3rd or 4th option in the Falcons offense, but he's a popular target for Matt Ryan with 10 receptions inside the 25-yard line. By comparison, George Kittle had 11.
Justin Howe: Hooper is anything but a glamorous fantasy pick. He’s fighting the pack for targets behind Julio Jones, and even with 71 receptions last year, he fell short of 700 yards. He looks locked into a safe, sanitized role as a Matt Ryan check down (only two drops last year), and it’s hard to project him beyond the neighborhood of 70-700-5. Still, tight end is a shakier position than usual in 2019, and sure things are hard to come by. Hooper may not bring much upside to the table, but many of his ADP-mates enter the season with big questions of volume, target share, and efficiency. They’re flashier ceiling plays, but most have lower floors with much tougher paths to 70 receptions than Hooper. Drafters looking to load up elsewhere and chase value at tight end are wise to sit tight for Hooper, who can stabilize a difficult position to fill.
Delanie Walker, Tennessee
Jeff Pasquino: Delanie Walker suffered an unfortunate ankle fracture in Week 1 last year, costing the Titans and QB Marcus Mariota one of their top receiving options. Since Mariota became the starter for Tennessee in 2015, Walker was a Top 6 tight end for three years before losing 2018 to injury. Walker averaged over 77 receptions, 898 yards and five touchdowns with Mariota across 2015-2017, and that average would have been good enough for a Top 5 tight end finish last season. Tennessee is still thin at the wide receiver position, with only Corey Davis projected to catch more than 50 passes for the Titans at wideout this year. The team is hoping rookie A.J. Brown can improve the group, but Walker is far more likely to finish 1-2 with Davis as the leading receivers for the Titans this season, making Walker a strong TE1 candidate and a great value pick.
Daniel Simpkins: Walker is a vital part of the offense and was sorely missed when he went down last year in week one with a broken right ankle. The offense should be better now that he is back in the mix. The additions of slot option Adam Humphries and flanker A.J. Brown should also help Walker to see more single-coverage opportunities. Walker will jump back into the top ten fantasy tight end conversation he seemed to perennially be in up until last year.
Matt Waldman: Walker has the best rapport with Marcus Mariota and he'll be healthy enough to start enough season as one of the Titans' most important receiving options. The addition of Adam Humphries and A.J. Brown should help Walker remain a recipient of high-leverage targets and mismatches that result in big plays. His age will scare fantasy players off, but it also presents potential value.
Players Receiving 2 Votes
Evan Engram, NY Giants
Andy Hicks: Evan Engram is more than likely the most dynamic receiver the Giants have this year following the departure of Odell Beckham. Now in his third year, he should be one of the first names you consider at tight end in 2019. Saquon Barkley can’t do everything in New York and Engram proved in his tough, injury-affected second season that he is a future star. After average early and mid-season performances, around his injuries, he came alive in the final four games of the season with at least 75 yards in every game and he averaged almost six receptions a game during this time span. That is elite production.
Maurile Tremblay: Engram showed his impressive receiving skills as a rookie in 2017, and he significantly reduced his drops while improving as a blocker in 2018. Odell Beckham's departure works to Engram's benefit in 2019. For a preview of what to expect without Beckham, look to the last four games of 2018 when Beckham was sidelined with a quadriceps injury. During those four games, Engram had receiving totals of 77, 75, 87, and 81 yards -- consistent production as the team's best receiver over that period. He'll be a big part of the offense again this season.
Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota
James Brimacombe: The Vikings gave Rudolph a hefty new contract this offseason as a reward to him playing a healthy 16 game season in each of the last four years. Once an injury-prone TE, now Rudolph is one of the more reliable TE's. In his 5 seasons where he has played a full 16 games, he has finished as the TE11, TE3, TE7, and TE9. At his current ADP, those type of production numbers is not even close to being on par.
Jason Wood: Kyle Rudolph was expected to be a cap casualty if the Vikings couldn’t trade him. Either way, he seemed destined for New England as Rob Gronkowski’s replacement. Things didn’t turn out that way as the Vikings instead signed Rudolph to a multi-year extension. That ensures he’ll maintain the role he’s held down for years. While Rudolph doesn’t have the upside to challenge Travis Kelce or Zach Ertz, he has finished 3rd, 7th, and 9th in the last three seasons. That’s a valuable commodity at his price tag.
Players Receiving 1 Vote
Eric Ebron, Indianapolis
Jeff Haseley: People are shying away from Eric Ebron this season, perhaps due to his offseason groin surgery, or maybe due to the return of teammate Jack Doyle. Going a step further, it could also be the presence of newly acquired Devin Funchess who looks to be a big red zone presence for Andrew Luck. The Colts had 21 touchdown passes to tight ends last year with Ebron's 13 leading the way. Even with a healthy Doyle, Ebron should once again be a key factor in the red zone. If he falls far enough in drafts, he's worth it to a tune of 6-8 touchdowns and 50-60 receptions.
Hunter Henry, LA Chargers
Jason Wood: Philip Rivers was a top-10 fantasy quarterback for years thanks to Antonio Gates. The Chargers smartly drafted Gates’ replacement in Henry, to ensure Rivers could maintain his excellence in spite of Gates’ advancing age. Things went astray when Henry tore his ACL last offseason, which would’ve been his breakout season with Gates out of the way. Henry managed back-to-back top-12 seasons splitting time with Gates, and now finally gets the role to himself. Rivers has shown no signs of decline, and the Chargers lost Tyrell Williams in the offseason ensuring Henry will see a target uptick and plenty of red-zone work. As long as Henry is a full go in training camp, he projects as the best value at the position.
Travis Kelce, Kansas City
Ryan Hester: It’s hard to say the top-ranked player at a position is a value play, but Kelce’s place here spans across positions. A rational argument can be made for Kelce to be a first-round pick in PPR leagues – especially those that allow a tight end to be flex-eligible. He’s essentially the WR1 for Patrick Mahomes II, and if Tyreek Hill is suspended for any chunk of the season, Kelce’s target share will be monstrous. I’m typically an advocate for positional scarcity and rarely draft quarterbacks or tight ends before the double-digit rounds, but Kelce is worth an early-round selection this year, especially if he falls outside of the first 15 picks in PPR leagues.
David Njoku, Cleveland
James Brimacombe: The ADP prices of the Browns players are pricey right now but if you are looking to invest in the offense at a discounted price it might be Njoku that is the answer. Njoku finished as the TE8 last season and although it looks like targets might be harder to come by this year with the addition of Odell Beckham, it could mean a higher quality of targets.
