Reader's Guide

As you read, you may run into some colors in the text. Blue text is a good matchup for that team's offensive players. Red text is a bad matchup. Some other key items are below:

• All red/blue highlighting in tables is relative to the entire NFL, even when showing a limited number of teams.
• All reference to fantasy points assumes DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
• All stats reference the full 2018 season unless otherwise specified.
• All fantasy points rankings are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks unless otherwise specified.

This week, we'll discuss the following topics:

• Strengths and Weaknesses
• Volume vs. Touchdowns
• Looks Can Be Deceiving
• Now #Trending
• The Weakest Links

Strengths and Weaknesses

This section will dissect how offenses gain their yards and how defenses allow them.

"PaYd%" = the percentage of a team's yards gained or allowed via the pass
"Rank" = the ranking of that percentage among NFL teams
(for offenses, 1 is the highest percentage; for defenses, 32 is the highest percentage)
"Avg. %" = the average of both "PaYd%" figures
(the higher the number, the more passing yardage we can expect for the offense)

Commentary

• Atlanta gains 81.2% of its total yardage via the pass, the second-highest ratio in the NFL.
• The Rams allow 69.6% of their total yardage via the pass, the 13th-highest ratio.
• The Rams face 66.7 defensive plays per game, seventh-most in the NFL.
• Philadelphia allows 79.4% of its total yardage via the pass, the second-highest ratio.
• Philadelphia allows 52.3% of its total points via passing touchdowns, the fourth-highest ratio.
• New England gains 73.7% of its total yardage via the pass, the sixth-highest ratio.
• The Jets allow 73.2% of their total yardage via the pass, the eighth-highest ratio.
• Green Bay gains 70.2% of its total yardage via the pass, the 13th-highest ratio.
• Oakland allows 74.1% of its total yardage via the pass, the sixth-highest ratio.
• Oakland allows 53.7% of its total points via passing touchdowns, the third-highest ratio.
• Green Bay throws a pass on 65.2% of its neutral-script offensive plays, the sixth-highest ratio in the NFL.
• Oakland faces a pass on 69.2% of its neutral-script defensive plays, the second-highest ratio.
• Oakland allows 2.37 points per drive, fifth-most in the NFL.

Action Items

It will be newsworthy if this column ever tells you not to start Matt Ryan and do a deep-dive on Atlanta's receivers. The Rams aren't an easy-to-beat passing defense, but Atlanta will score. And they'll do so via the passing game. The game's project temp only helps matters.

Dallas is a middling passing offense, but lesser attacks have torched Philadelphia this season. Those include 380 yards and 3 touchdowns allowed to Case Keenum and 333 yards and 4 touchdowns allowed to Kirk Cousins last week. With Amari Cooper potentially sidelined, Michael Gallup should take center stage in a great matchup. Gallup is a high-end WR2 in season-long leagues, though he is probably just a GPP play in DFS because his price is high relative to his projections.

It seems that we're overdue for a quintessential "Aaron Rodgers Game." And while the feeling qualifies as #NarrativeStreet, the stars (and, more importantly, the stats) align for it to happen this week. How many times have we seen Rodgers outclass an inferior opponent at Lambeau to the tune of four or more touchdowns? With Oakland and their poor secondary in town, Rodgers has high-end QB1 upside this week. In DFS, he's a GPP play due to "sexier" matchup-based plays surrounding him (Josh Allen and Matt Ryan).

"RuYd%" = the percentage of a team's yards gained or allowed via the rush
"Rank" = the ranking of that percentage among NFL teams
(for offenses, 1 is the highest percentage; for defenses, 32 is the highest percentage)
"Avg. %" = the average of both "RuYd%" figures
(the higher the number, the more rushing yardage we can expect for the offense)

Commentary

• San Francisco gains 44.2% of its total yardage via the run, the second-highest ratio in the NFL.
• Washington allows 34.8% of its total yardage via the run, the ninth-highest ratio.
• Jacksonville gains 34.9% of its total yardage via the run, the 10th-highest ratio.
• Cincinnati allows 43.3% of its total yardage via the run, the highest ratio.
• Cincinnati allows 6.5 yards per play, second-most in the NFL.
• Cincinnati allows 5.3 yards per rush, most in the NFL.
• Cincinnati allows 34.0% of its total points via rushing touchdowns, the eighth-highest ratio in the NFL.
• Buffalo gains 37.5% of its total yardage via the run, the sixth-highest ratio.
• Miami allows 38.6% of its total yardage via the run, the fourth-highest ratio.
• Miami allows 6.7 yards per play, most in the NFL.
• Minnesota gains 42.7% of its total yardage via the run, the third-highest ratio.
• Detroit allows 32.3% of its total yardage via the run, the 13th-highest ratio.

Action Items

San Francisco's defense has been carrying the load, but the offense has a nice on-paper situation this week. Beware the let-down game, though.

Between Cincinnati's terrible run defense and the fact that they'll be without both starting cornerbacks this week, it's hard to say which part of Jacksonville's offense to like most. When in doubt, find the best player who's also seeing the most fantasy-friendly volume. That's Leonard Fournette. There's also some positive touchdown regression in play for Fournette (more on that later). Fournette has overall RB1 upside in season-long leagues and should be at the top of your list in any DFS format this week.

For season-long players, now is the time to buy Devin Singletary. Those who have him on their rosters may have forgotten about his since he last played in Week 2. But he's exactly the kind of player who could be a surprise fantasy factor going forward. And the Buffalo schedule is a cakewalk until late November.

Minnesota went away from the norm and decided to pass the ball in the last couple of weeks. This movement away from the run-first mentality against defenses that struggle to defend the pass suggests that the play-callers in Minnesota might know what they're doing. If that's the case, they'll go back to a ground-heavy approach this week.

[return to top]

Volume vs. Touchdowns

Touchdowns are the biggest factor in fantasy football scoring, but they're also the most unpredictable. Snaps, touches, and yards are more predictive of future value than touchdowns. Therefore, this section will look at players in the top-36 at wide receiver and running back and the top-24 at quarterback and examine what percentage of their fantasy points come from touchdowns.

The intent here is to identify players with positive touchdown regression forthcoming but also to look at the schedules going forward to determine "buy" candidates in season-long leagues.