#Trendspotting: Week 2

Ryan Hester's #Trendspotting: Week 2 Ryan Hester Published 09/12/2019

Last week, we listed numerous sections that will be featured throughout the season. Despite that exhaustive list, we still have a new one! And since we're short on season-long data and need time to explain this new concept, much of the column this week will be devoted to this section.

This week, we'll discuss the following topics:

Running Back Buy Lows

This section will identify the running backs with the most opportunity-driven fantasy potential. And we'll compare that potential with actual fantasy points scored so far. The intent is to identify buy-low candidates for season-long leagues and positive touchdown regression candidates for DFS purposes.

The Methodology

This section will focus on Expected Fantasy Points per Game. The idea is to separate high-value opportunities from ordinary "between-the-20s" carries. Carries near the goal line matter more than those from midfield. Since we're assuming PPR leagues, targets matter much more than carries. Here is the breakdown of the calculation:

  • 1.59 fantasy points per target
  • 0.58 fantasy points per carry outside the 5 yard-line
  • 2.37 fantasy points per carry inside the 5 yard-line

These figures were determined by looking at the last five years of data and how much each target and carry was worth for running backs across the league. As you can see, even in PPR leagues, touchdowns are king.

The breakdown of the "inside-the-five" number is as follows: from 2014-2018, teams combined for 2,626 running back carries inside the 5. League-wide, they converted 1,038 (39.5%) of those.

39.5% (conversion rate) x 6 (points for a rushing touchdown) = 2.37 fantasy points

The Data (Through Week 1)

Player Targets Carries 5 and In Actual FPs/Gm Expected FPs/Gm Expected vs. Actual
Christian McCaffrey 11 19 2 45.9 32.1 -30.1%
LeVeon Bell 9 17 0 21.2 24.2 14.0%
Chris Carson 7 15 1 25.1 21.6 -13.9%
David Johnson 7 18 0 25.7 21.6 -16.1%
Alvin Kamara 8 13 0 23.9 20.3 -15.2%
Damien Williams 6 13 1 18.5 18.9 2.0%
Josh Jacobs 1 23 2 24.3 18.5 -23.8%
Austin Ekeler 7 12 0 39.4 18.1 -54.1%
Saquon Barkley 6 11 1 20.9 17.7 -15.3%
Chris Thompson 10 3 0 14.8 17.6 19.2%
Rex Burkhead 8 8 0 13.5 17.4 28.6%
Dalvin Cook 2 21 1 29.0 17.2 -40.9%
Leonard Fournette 6 13 0 12.4 17.1 37.7%
Derrick Henry 2 19 1 28.9 16.0 -44.7%
Tarik Cohen 10 0 0 12.9 15.9 23.3%
Marlon Mack 0 25 0 26.4 14.5 -45.1%
James White 7 4 0 13.2 13.5 1.9%
Duke Johnson Jr 5 9 0 13.0 13.2 1.3%
Devin Singletary 6 4 0 14.8 11.9 -19.9%
Ezekiel Elliott 2 13 0 13.3 10.7 -19.4%
Malcolm Brown 0 11 2 17.3 10.0 -42.4%
Latavius Murray 3 6 0 12.7 8.3 -35.0%
Mark Ingram 0 14 0 25.7 8.1 -68.4%
Wayne Gallman 3 2 1 13.1 7.7 -41.1% 
This table includes the top 24 running backs and is sorted by the "Expected FPs/Gm" column.
"5 and In" = the total number of carries from the 5 yard-line and closer
"FPs/Gm" = DraftKings fantasy points per game played
"Exp. FPs/Gm" = (Targets x 1.59) + ((Total Carries - 5 and In) x 0.58) + (5 and In x 2.37)
"Expected vs. Actual" = a comparison of FPs/Gm and Exp. FPs/Gm calculated as follows (Exp. FPs/Gm - FPs/Gm) / FPs/Gm
Here, a positive number indicates a player with more Expected Fantasy Points than actual Fantasy Points. These players have high-value opportunities that indicate they could outperform year-to-date performance.

Observations

  • Christian McCaffrey is a cheat code. Only one running back (Austin Ekeler) scored more actual fantasy points than McCaffrey's total of Expected Fantasy Points. When a player's actual production outnumbers the expected production by 30% or more, they're a negative regression candidate. But McCaffrey's "regression" could see him score in the upper-20's instead of the 40's. If you have him and that happens, cry me a river.
  • LeVeon Bell jumps out. Not only did he finish the week as the RB11, but he has room for improvement. A goal line carry or two combined with the opportunity he's projected to receive every week would raise his ceiling.
  • Context is everything. The chart suggests that David Johnson is a negative regression candidate because he "only" had seven targets and zero carries inside the five. However, that's faulty logic by multiple measures.
    • First, Johnson's targets are more valuable than any running back. His 45 air yards were most among running backs despite him being tied for seventh among backs in targets.
    • Second, Johnson had zero carries inside the five. But that's because Arizona as a team had zero carries inside the five. When they do, Johnson will get the lion's share of them.
    • Consider also that Johnson played 87% of the snaps, had 18 of 19 running back carries, and accounted for 17.9% of the team's targets. Johnson is the best "jack-of-all-trades" competition to McCaffrey.
  • LeSean McCoy has folks cooling down their Damien Williams love affair. McCoy looked spry on his carries, but as long as he's the chief (pun alert) pass-catcher and goal-line back, Williams is the player we want in Kansas City.
  • Houston's situation is similar to Kansas City's, which is ironic given the fact that Carlos Hyde was cut by Kansas City. Despite being picked up off the street, he's apparently good enough to see 10 of the team's 19 running back carries. But Hyde didn't make the top-24 in Week 1, mostly because he saw just one target and zero goal line carries. Even considering the not-promising usage, Hyde's Expected Fantasy Points were still below his actuals. Duke Johnson Jr is the Houston back that smart fantasy GMs want.
  • Ekeler was fantastic, and his usage will continue to be high. But three touchdowns every week isn't happening.
  • Rex Burkhead jumps off the page here. He finished as the week's RB17 but actually could have had more based on the way he was used.
  • Malcolm Brown is receiving all the buzz this week (mostly because of Todd Gurley's outlook), but buyer beware. Two rushes inside the five are nice, but that volume (and converting both) is hard to sustain.
  • Marlon Mack's line illustrates the gap between targets and carries in PPR leagues. Mack's 25 carries led the entire league, but his Expected Fantasy Points was just 15th among the week's top-24 backs.
  • Chris Thompson and Tarik Cohen are two more "context matters" players. Cohen was a slot receiver Thursday night, a role that should change when Chicago gets Anthony Miller back. And Thompson saw 6 of his 10 targets in the final 2:39 of the game. It's hard to rely on garbage time.
  • Keep an eye on Leonard Fournette. It was a pedestrian performance, but six targets in the passing game is a great sign.

Action Items

  • Bell should be near the top of every DFS list at running back. Until his price gets closer to the "big four" or until the matchup is so prohibitive he's not worth the headache, keep taking the opportunity at a discount.
  • Johnson's matchup (at Baltimore) is dreadful, but he's an RB1 in PPR and a viable GPP candidate in DFS.
  • Williams is the RB1 in Kansas City. Take advantage of the fact that you know it and others don't by using him in GPPs this week. He's a nice price pivot from players like Austin Ekeler and Mark Ingram, who could appear on more rosters.
  • Burkhead is a GPP candidate and a strong PPR flex at Miami.

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Tweets of the Week

Commentary

Young offense-driven minds were all the rage this offseason, yet one prominent hire was ridiculed. Kliff Kingsbury ignored the naysayers and stayed very much #onbrand not only with his four-wide formations (55 play with four wide receivers, compared to 53 for the rest of the league combined) but also with his uptempo pace. Consider the following:

Action Items

  • All Cardinals are risky in a matchup at Baltimore, but Murray is a GPP candidate in DFS.
  • Speaking of air yards, don't be fooled by Christian Kirk's poor Week 1 line. He saw 12 targets and 139 air yards. Kirk is a potential stack partner for Murray in deeper tournaments.
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