TipAndPick's: Tips and Picks, Week #3

John Lee's TipAndPick's: Tips and Picks, Week #3 John Lee Published 09/21/2019

For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.

Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.

TIPS...

In order to help you build winning rosters, let's walk through some of the observations that I have made while doing my research for DraftKings this week. As you build out your lineups on DraftKings, try to consider the following commentary, which revolves around game strategy and how we will want to take advantage of what the masses are doing when they construct their own lineups.

ADVICE FOR TOURNAMENT LINEUPS: As I briefly discussed on this week's edition of the PowerGrid, the shark method to generating contrarian, high-upside lineups for GPPs this week is to start your roster builds by slotting in a couple $6K+ wide receivers, which will force you to do something unique at running back. As you have probably already seen, there are seven different teams who are favored to win by at least a touchdown, which results in a lot of confidence around running backs on those respective teams. Ezekiel Elliott, Austin Ekeler, Dalvin Cook, and Chris Carson all fit the mold of home favorite while being 10+% owned by the masses and merit serious consideration in all game types. But you know contrarian lineup builds are the secret to high-end scores in tournaments, which is why grabbling a few high-dollar receivers will force you to look at lower-owned, alternative running backs. On that less notable list, you might consider Peyton Barber at $4.6K, Sony Michel at $6.0K, or LeSean McCoy at $5.0K, all of whom bring upside to your lineups with < 5% public ownership. This is not to advise you to totally avoid all high-dollar running backs, but more about guidance as to how you can differentiate your lineups merely by building them "backwards." Best of luck on Sunday!

NEW FORMAT!

NAME OPP. SALARY PROJ. % CASH? GPP STARS NOTES
Warren Moon @CAR $6,400 11% Yes «««« 4 stars = Best GPP selections.
Joe Montana KC $8,000 18% - ««« 3 stars = Better GPP selections.
Dan Marino NYG $4,400 3% Yes «« 2 stars = Good GPP selections.
Jim Kelly @OAK $5,100 7% - « 1 star = Average GPP selections.

A new year brings a new format. In an effort to condense and enhance the value of the article, the text of Tips and Picks will be less than in years' past, but the upside is that you will now gain access to my full GPP player pool for DraftKings each and every week! For each position, I will provide Footballguys' subscribers with every player that I consider to be viable for cash games, while providing a ranking for every player that I will be drafting in my tournament lineups. The above table is an example of what you will see in the "Picks" section of this article. See below for some important bullet points regarding the new format:

  • The "CROWD EXPOSURE" column is based on Steve Buzzard's Ownership Projections each week.
  • The "CASH VIABLE?" column reveals to the reader which players can be considered for cash games (50/50's, double-ups, and head-to-head contests).
  • The "GPP STARS" column rates players according to how I rank them in my large-field GPP contests each week:
    • 4 stars: The players in which I will be most overweight on the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are my most confident plays.
    • 3 stars: The players in which I like more than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are plays that I feel strongly could deliver.
    • 2 stars: The players in which I will be close to the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these players reflect those that I think the public percentages are most accurate.
    • 1 star: The players in which I will be exposed at rates lower than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column) OR at rates generally lower than 5% overall; these are players who merit consideration in your overall approach, but will be limited in my player pool due to game strategy reasons.
  • If you have any questions on the new format, please email me at john.lee@footballguys.com.

...AND PICKS

Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. A short summary follows each respective table to fill in the gaps that led to the respective recommendations; that text represents only an overview of the methodology and rationale that goes into each recommendation.

QUARTERBACKS

NAME OPP. SALARY PROJ. % CASH? GPP STARS NOTES
Kyle Allen @ARZ $4,000 2% Yes «««« Lots of factors in his favor. Read below for more.
Jimmy Garoppolo PIT $6,200 2% - «««« Crowd exposure is too low. Pair him with Kittle.
Kyler Murray CAR $5,800 8% Yes «««« Pace of offense drives production. Still cheap.
Patrick Mahomes II BAL $7,600 10% Yes ««« Mr. Everything. There is no limit to his upside.
Tom Brady NYJ $6,600 4% - ««« Only 4% owned despite 33-point team total?
Aaron Rodgers DEN $6,100 3% - ««« Looked much improved in last. Too low-owned here.
Matthew Stafford @PHL $5,500 3% - ««« If Bevell releases the brakes, Stafford could dice PHL.
Philip Rivers HOU $5,800 3% - «« Potential shootout in LA. Surprised at ownership # here.
Carson Wentz DET $5,600 6% - «« Rushing game in PHL is abyssmal. Wentz to rescue.
Russell Wilson NO $6,300 2% - «« Lockett & Metcalf are too talented to fade entirely.
Deshaun Watson @LAC $6,400 5% - «« Game has sneaky shootout potential. Weapons galore.
Matt Ryan @IND $5,700 4% - « Underweight on field, but a small piece just in case.
Kirk Cousins OAK $5,100 2% - « Get more than field. Thielen/Diggs could thrive here.
Mason Rudolph @SF $4,800 1% - « Gamescript favors PIT passing. Price is right.
Josh Allen CIN $5,900 7% - « Limited options beyond J.Brown. Slight under field.
Jameis Winston NYG $5,400 Photos provided by Imagn Images
Tags:
Daily FF DraftKings Davante Adams Nelson Agholor Josh Allen Keenan Allen Kyle Allen Robbie Chosen Mark Andrews Peyton Barber Saquon Barkley Cole Beasley Le'Veon Bell Miles Boykin Tom Brady Teddy Bridgewater Antonio Brown John Brown Marquise Brown Rex Burkhead Damiere Byrd Derek Carr Chris Carson Jadeveon Clowney Randall Cobb James Conner Dalvin Cook Jared Cook Amari Cooper Kirk Cousins Keke Coutee Jamison Crowder Stefon Diggs Will Dissly Phillip Dorsett Kenyan Drake Eric Ebron Austin Ekeler Ezekiel Elliott Evan Engram Zach Ertz Mike Evans Noah Fant Joe Flacco Devonta Freeman Will Fuller V Jimmy Garoppolo Chris Godwin Kenny Golladay Josh Gordon Jimmy Graham Mecole Hardman Jr. Casey Hayward Taysom Hill T.J. Hockenson Mack Hollins Austin Hooper DeAndre Hopkins O.J. Howard Carlos Hyde Mark Ingram II DeSean Jackson Lamar Jackson Josh Jacobs David Johnson Diontae Johnson Kerryon Johnson Aaron Jones Julio Jones Marvin Jones Jr Alvin Kamara Travis Kelce Christian Kirk George Kittle Tyler Lockett Marlon Mack Patrick Mahomes II Christian McCaffrey DK Metcalf Sony Michel DJ Moore Kyler Murray Cam Newton DeVante Parker Dak Prescott Calvin Ridley Demarcus Robinson Bradley Roby Aaron Rodgers Josh Rosen John Ross Mason Rudolph Matt Ryan Curtis Samuel Emmanuel Sanders Miles Sanders Sterling Shepard Richard Sherman Trevor Siemian Devin Smith Ito Smith JuJu Smith-Schuster Matthew Stafford Courtland Sutton Adam Thielen Darwin Thompson Michael Thomas Mitch Trubisky Marquez Valdes-Scantling Darren Waller James Washington Sammy Watkins Deshaun Watson Carson Wentz James White Damien Williams K'Waun Williams P.J. Williams Preston Williams Tyrell Williams Russell Wilson Jameis Winston

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