Combined Rookie Draft Board

Photo: USA Today Sports

The consensus rookie rankings at Footballguys are one of the strongest features we produce each season. However, despite embedded commentary, the consensus rankings can be light on context. If you look carefully, you can see tiers, but it can be difficult to compare players within their position and across multiple positions.

Knowing Player X is the consensus RB3 is clear from the rankings. Knowing how nearly Player X was to being ranked RB2 or RB6, or how Player X compares to the WR5 or TE1 or LB2 is much less clear.

I prefer a more visual approach, one that tiers players by position but also shows the value of one position relative to another across my draft board.

NOTES ON THE DRAFT BOARD

**The first version of this feature is based on limited information. Coaching comments, mini-camp observations, debate within the fantasy community, and the clarity that comes from testing this board in my own drafts will bring changes to future versions.

**I build this draft board with the following league parameters in mind: 12-14 teams, PPR, balanced IDP scoring, and full IDP lineups that include defensive tackles and cornerbacks. The commentary that follows the draft board will sometimes address modifications for leagues that provide bonuses for tight end scoring, big play IDP systems, etc.

**There may be more than 12-14 players listed in a given draft round. That's a function of the tiering approach. It's also a natural reflection of the wide range of ADP valuations we always see as a rookie draft moves into the deeper rounds. In some years, there may be fewer than 10-12 players in a draft round. Drafting trends may change from year-to-year, but it’s important to recognize when to trade for a future pick than to reach for a clearly less valuable talent now.

**This board reflects my personal drafting philosophy. I prioritize upside over floor within tiers. I'm willing to accept a higher bust risk in all rounds. I prefer to draft players who are likely to be successful sooner if other variables are equal. And I'm not afraid to trust my evaluations of defensive players and draft a second tier IDP over a third tier offensive prospect -- regardless of positional scarcity.

**The offensive columns of this draft board are informed by the in-depth process and work of Matt Waldman, Matt Harmon, Sigmund Bloom, Cecil Lammey, as well as Josh Norris, Dane Brugler, Mark Schofield, Emory Hunt, Evan Silva, J.J. Zachariason, Gary Davenport, and many others. I have also relied on the rankings of Bob Henry, John Norton, and Jason Wood at Footballguys for years. If you have other evaluators on your short list and they differ greatly from this board, tweak accordingly.

The draft board is designed to be read top to bottom and left to right. Each position is tiered from top to bottom in its own column. Separations within the columns represent relative tiers and the players are ranked by preference within those tiers. Relative value between positions can be tracked from left to right. The "suggested" draft rounds are based on my view of a player's value, with some consideration given to keeping the number of players with a given draft round grade to a reasonable total.

Positional commentaries can be found after the draft board.

VERSION 1.0

***You can view a cleaner image of the draft board with full player names and teams here. Email me at bramel@footballguys.com and I'll send an Excel file so you can modify this draft board to better fit your player evaluations, draft philosophy, and league parameters.

THE BIG PICTURE

In the general notes section above, I remind you that a draft board may have more than 12-14 players in any given round. However, in all the years I've written this feature, I'm not sure I've ever felt a tier was so compressed and full to list more than 14 players with either a first or second round grade.

But that's the case this year.

It's not that I'm afraid to make a decision and slot one player or position ahead of another. And I'm not arguing this year's draft class is full of mediocre talent. This year's top heavy draft board is a confluence of many factors.

If you look around the industry, you'll see some consensus at the very top of the elite tiers. However, there's debate over just how many running backs belong in the near-elite tier, which wide receivers are most valuable, and where to slot the tight ends. There's also two elite defensive tackle prospects, two stud linebacker values, and a handful of interesting edge possibilities.

Further, the running back classes of the past two years were ridiculously strong. There's little room for 20+ touch backs around the league -- and lots of coordinators don't want them anyway. Spread offenses are taking over on early downs and coordinators are using their receivers in multiple roles. It's getting difficult to project targets on teams with multiple receiving options, and especially so when we're not yet sure how this year's rookie receivers will be used.

I have 19 players I consider worthy of a first round draft pick in balanced 12 team scoring systems. I have 29 with a second round grade. And 43 -- 43!! -- that I wouldn't fault you for drafting with a third round pick.

Obviously, the math doesn't work here. But it's where the intersection of depth of talent and draftable grade leads me.

Strategically, that means:

• The value of high first round picks will be depressed. Do not be afraid to buck ADP and draft a player you want if you are unable trade back and stockpile.
• Don't be afraid to reach for an elite tight end, defensive tackle, or linebacker in the first round. You'll get a look at some running back and wide receiver value in the second and third rounds.
• Ignore NFL draft round in the middle rounds of your draft. There are a ton of UDFAs with equal or better value than those drafted in the 5th round and later this year.

And it means this should be a fun, plant-your-flag, draft. Take the players you feel strongly about and you're excited to watch play.

QUARTERBACK

Kyler Murray is well ahead of every other quarterback on the board. I have him in a relative second tier of late first round prospects. His creativity, running ability, and potential upside in Arizona's Air Raid offense is intriguing. But my enthusiasm is tempered by Murray's size and pocket presence, lack of clarity on how quickly his talented receivers may develop, and the unknowns around Kliff Kingsbury's coaching ability. If you're smitten with Murray's upside, there's room to consider him in the middle of the first round.

I share the consensus view on Daniel Jones; he's essentially undraftable on my board. I prefer Dwayne Haskins over Drew Lock in the second tier. And I won't shy away from looking at Will Grier if the fifth round if the draftable running backs are gone.

RUNNING BACK

Before the draft, I expected to argue strongly for a wide receiver over running back in the early first round. But the Raiders were all-in on Jacobs on Thursday night and had targeted him with their final first round pick. Reports from the Oakland draft room had the always-giddy Jon Gruden appropriately excited to get Jacobs. With Isaiah Crowell out with a torn Achilles, Jacobs is in line for a 250+ touch season. He's talented enough to take advantage. There's RB1 capability if his offensive line and quarterback play is better than last season.

The Bears traded up for David Montgomery and there's opportunity to be seized in the Chicago offense. Miles Sanders is in the same tier and deserves consideration in the mid-first round. I'd like to have Damien Harris higher and will move him up if there's any preseason concern about Sony Michel's durability. And I think Darrell Henderson is worth a high second round pick despite slotting behind Todd Gurley on the Rams' depth chart. Regardless of what Los Angeles claimed about Gurley's health, they chose to restrict his touches in the NFC Championship and Super Bowl, matched an offer for Malcolm Brown in free agency, then traded up for Henderson.

I'm not high on Devin Singletary or Justice Hill. Bryce Love may not be ready until 2020. If you draft from this board, you'll have no chance at any of them. If you feel strongly about any of the three, move them into the second round running back tier.

The fourth round grades on Rodney Anderson, Ryquell Armstead, and Benny Snell represent their upside as 15+ touch players should their respective depth charts blow up due to injury. Darwin Thompson and Dexter Williams are interesting players in explosive offenses who could stumble into 10+ touch upside. Half the players listed in the 6th-FA tier are UDFAs with talent or a soft depth chart. Expect more than one of them to move into a higher tier after mini-camps end.

WIDE RECEIVER

Plant your flag. I can make an argument for any of the eight receivers in the top tier to be listed first -- or eighth. Had it been legible, I'd probably have typed all eight names on top of each other.

Right now, I'd lean toward drafting either N'Keal Harry or Hakeem Butler over the others. But Harry may not be a comfortable fit in Tom Brady's offense and Butler has to assimilate into the NFL, develop with Kyler Murray, and not drop passes thrown to him. I'm partial to A.J. Brown, Deebo Samuel, and Parris Campbell over D.K. Metcalf and Mecole Hardman -- but not enough to stand on the table. I'm struggling with Marquise Brown. He's a mold-breaker -- but he's also 160 pounds, recovering from a Lisfranc injury, and dependent on the continued development of Lamar Jackson.

The second tier of receivers have their own mix of upside and blemishes. I'm likely drafting a defensive talent over that group in the second round then happily drafting Miles Boykin or Jalen Hurd in the third round if either is still on the board.

I don't see much upside in anyone in the fourth round and later tiers right now. The Raiders traded up for Hunter Renfrow. He might be a late round value in PPR leagues but I don't see top 20 wide receiver upside.

TIGHT END

If you're in a tight end premium scoring system, T.J. Hockenson is a mid-first round target. Noah Fant and Irv Smith also get bumps in value. If you're not in a premium scoring league, all three are considerations at the end of the round. I may have Sternberger too low. He's a second tier option for me but has both short and long term upside. I'd rather take the flier on the fifth round tight end targets than any of the late round wide receivers.

DEFENSIVE TACKLE

In most years, I'll identify one defensive tackle prospect worthy of a 5th round pick. I gave Aaron Donald a second round grade, essentially arguing he was a must-draft player in DT-required leagues. Quinnen Williams and Ed Oliver are not Donald-level talents but both have 40 solo - 10 sack upside. If you're in a DT-required league, I'd consider Williams and Oliver at the end of the first round. The floor is extremely high with both players. If Nick Bosa and Devin Bush and Devin White weren't so attractive, the two defensive tackles would have no competition as my top IDP targets in 2019.

After the draftable running back and tight end targets come off the board, Jeffery Simmons enters consideration as a stash-and-wait pick. Christian Wilkins and Jerry Tillery should be drafted in most DT-required leagues.

Edge Rusher

I expect positional designations to change. For now, I've listed edge players at the position announced on draft night.

In sack-heavy scoring or leagues that designate edge rushers separately, I'd tier these players as follows:

TIER 1 (Late 1st - Mid 2nd Rounds)

• Nick Bosa
• Montez Sweat
• Josh Allen
• Brian Burns
• Clelin Ferrell

Tier 2 (3rd - 5th Round)

• Jachai Polite
• Ben Banogu
• Rashan Gary
• Maxx Crosby
• Oshane Ximines
• Chase Winovich

Tier 3 (Draftable)

• Anthony Nelson
• Zach Allen
• D'Andre Walker
• L.J. Collier

Tier 4 (Watch List)

• Jaylon Ferguson
• Christian Miller
• Charles Omenihu
• (Sutton Smith)

DEFENSIVE END

Nick Bosa will play a similar role to his brother Joey. Though Joey had elite pass rush success as a rookie, he took the usual development time before he became an all-around statistical stud. The same is likely with Nick. If he's listed as a defensive end, Montez Sweat will have similar statistical upside in time.

I have Josh Allen, Brian Burns, and Clelin Ferrell in the same tier. All project to 800+ snaps by their sophomore season and all have 40-10 or better upside. I have them ranked in order of preference within the tier.

LINEBACKER

Devin White and Devin Bush are first round talents. Both should play immediately and both should have an immediate every-down role. I prefer White over Bush narrowly but you'll not go wrong with either. They are high floor, elite LB1 upside options. As noted with Quinnen Williams and Ed Oliver, both White and Bush are worthy of consideration over the back end elite wide receiver talents in league that value defensive players as highly as offensive players.

There's room on the Cincinnati depth chart for Germaine Pratt to find an every-down role soon. It's a favorable stat crew and an opportunity-rich environment. I'm not buying Jahlani Tavai yet. I'm not convinced he's good enough in coverage for a statistically productive every-down role. Contrast that with my love for Bobby Okereke, who I watched fluidly stay with backs and receivers in one-on-one drills at the Senior Bowl. He'd be higher on my draft board if he didn't have his upside capped by his elite teammate Darius Leonard.

I'm not sure what the Browns see in Sione Takitaki or Mack Wilson. One of them may push for an every-down role at some point. If they're successful, they'll have some statistical upside. But I don't see years of LB2 production in either's future.

Watch UDFA Te'von Coney (OAK) and late round picks Dre Greenlaw (SF) and David Long (TEN). Coney might be more than a two-down thumper. Greenlaw and Long have every-down upside if the scheme and opportunity break well for them.

CORNERBACK

There are no standout cornerbacks on the board. I've listed the options with the best mix of run support and ball skills. Move on one if they're named a starter -- especially if they're moved into the slot in subpackages -- during training camp.

SAFETY

The Raiders targeted Jonathan Abram. He's a box safety with ball skills. Neither Brandon Marshall or Vontaze Burfict can be trusted to stay healthy or play with range. Abram will start immediately and have high tackle opportunity every week. I like Darnell Savage and Marquise Blair ahead of the rest of a long list of rookies with 600+ snap potential in time. I'll upgrade Blair further if he looks likely to earn a large role by Week 1.

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