The dynasty staffers at Footballguys will have regular Dynasty Roundtables throughout the offseason. This is the third installment with several staffers contributing.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Besides, JuJu Smith-Schuster, who in the Pittsburgh Steelers offense are you targeting to buy in dynasty leagues? Why?
Simpkins
I still have love for James Washington and will buy low on him where I can. I know folks are disappointed he didn't come along as fast as Juju Smith-Schuster but expecting Washington to be that kind of producer in year one was unrealistic. I am not worried about Diontae Johnson in terms of competition because I see Johnson eventually being the split end, Washington being the flanker, and Smith-Schuster playing the slot primarily. I'm counting on Washington being another example of why it's important in dynasty to be patient with player development and not bail on them if they aren't instant hits.
Hicks
Benny Snell is a good cheap buy. The fact that James Conner can be productive in this offense, means that Benny Snell should just slot straight in if required. Both lack top-end speed but have good vision and thrive with more work. Given the turnover at the position and the fact his only competition is Jaylen Samuels, Snell is in an excellent buy-low candidate moving forward.
Wood
As Daniel Simpkins Daniel said, James Washington is the value now. I much prefer him to this year's rookie addition -- Diontae Johnson. Washington had nearly 5,000 receiving yards and 39 touchdowns at Oklahoma State, and just because he didn't pierce the impenetrable ceiling of Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster should not condemn him to mediocrity. He'll have the opportunity to emerge as a high volume target this year, and your window to buy low on him is closing fast.
I'm also a fan of Benny Snell. James Conner was fantastic last year, but we can't be sure of Conner's future in Pittsburgh once he's due for a big extension. Snell has the skill set to thrive in any NFL offense, but we know any capable inside runner can be a fantasy powerhouse in Pittsburgh. Snell could be next in line. I would prioritize Snell over Jaylen Samuels if you're looking to add Steelers assets.
Grant
Like most of the folks above, the obvious choices for me are James Washington and a cheap rookie pick on Benny Snell. I like that Diontae Johnson is already signed and will take part in all camps this summer. I'd much rather have him on my roster than guys like Donte Moncrief or Eli Rogers who seem like frequent underachievers. But I won't break the bank to get any of them.
With Jesse James in Detroit now, Vance McDonald becomes a top-10 fantasy tight end. He's a starting quality guy, and even better as part of a committee. I'd be happy with him on my dynasty roster as well.
Hindery
The Steelers have over 200 targets to replace from last year's roster and were the NFL's most pass-heavy team in 2018 (43 attempts per game), so all of the pass catchers are intriguing trade targets to some extent. Diontae Johnson seems to have both the most upside and lowest price tag of the group. Amongst the Steelers top handful of options, he is clearly the top open-field runner and YAC-threat. Pittsburgh has always used a lot of pick plays near the line to get the ball into the hands of their playmakers in space and Johnson should be the guy who is featured in that role. He could be fantasy relevant in PPR leagues very quickly. Plus, it is hard to ignore the big discount you can get him for due to his lack of pre-draft buzz. He is consistently falling into the late-second and even third rounds of my rookie drafts, which has made him my favorite target in that range. In fact, he has landed on my roster in over half of my rookie drafts so far. I will have more dynasty shares of Diontae Johnson than any other rookie in this class.
Bloom
Diontae Johnson is sometimes falling to the end of the second or third round in rookie drafts and that seems too cheap. The Steelers have a tremendous track record developing receivers of his type and there's obviously a ton of wide receiver targets up for grabs.
Parsons
Strangely, James Washington's dynasty stock has softened post-NFL Draft while Day 2 selection Dionte Johnson is not costly either. It is an interesting adjustment from when Washington was hot post-Antonio Brown trade. The biggest buys are the capable backup running backs Jaylen Samuels and Benny Snell. I like Snell for Round 3 rookie draft price more than Samuels, who is being held in higher regard, but more of a hybrid player while Snell is a 21-year-old rookie with an early college breakout and the James Conner backup to own for the price.
Tefertiller
Like the others, I think Washington and Johnson have a shot to step into a large number of targets. But, the two players I will be investing in – on the cheap – are Vance McDonald and Jaylen Samuels. Each of these two versatile pass-catchers has proven themselves to Ben Roethlisberger and could see their respective roles take a step forward in 2019. I also like Moncrief as a player to watch. He has never put it all together, but is physically gifted enough to emerge.
Todd Gurley
With the report of the Todd Gurley arthritic knee concern, how are you playing it in your dynasty leagues? Are you using it as an opportunity to buy low? Buying Darrell Henderson?
Simpkins
I'm not really worried about Todd Gurley in the way that other folks are. The kind of historic usage that Gurley was enjoying was bound to end, but it doesn't mean that he will not still be one of the more productive backs on a limited workload. Yes, his career may be shorter with this diagnosis, but to say it's coming to a close at 25 years old (he turns 25 in season) feels reactionary and premature. As for Darrell Henderson, I'm fine with securing him as backup for Gurley at an affordable price. The problem is, I'm seeing him go ridiculously high in drafts. He was taken at 1.13 and 2.01 in my most recent dynasty drafts. That's pricey when you consider that guys like Irv Smith Jr., Hakeem Butler, Myles Boykin, and others were still available in one or both of those drafts at the time. I see Henderson as a wonderful change-of-pace option, but not one that will supplant Gurley any time soon.
Hicks
Like Daniel, I am not that concerned about Todd Gurley in the short term. You must trust that the team knows what it is doing with one of their key players and by investing in a solid back to help, Gurley should be able to do more with less. I agree that Darrell Henderson is going way too high in dynasty leagues. On his contract, Gurley is pretty much locked in for three more years. Unless Gurley really has a significant issue going forward, which I doubt, Henderson is just getting five to 10 touches a game. I am not in the position where I have Gurley in any league, nor am I willing to pay the price required to get Henderson, but if I had Gurley, I would be happy to keep him.
Wood
This is much ado about nothing. Very few NFL stars are without long-term degenerative issues, it's just that Gurley's slowdown in the second half of 2018 raised his health concerns to the forefront. He'll be fine for 2019 and a few seasons beyond. Let's not forget he was still among the NFL's most productive backs last year and the Rams have an immense financial commitment to Gurley that doesn't end for another few seasons.
Grant
I'd have no problem buying low on Todd Gurley in a dynasty league. Current reports are that he's recovering well and doesn't expect there to be any long-term impact from his 2018 injury. That being said, the Rams should dial back his production from the 260+ carries he's had over his first four seasons. He's still a quality running back, just not the 'lock' into the top 5 that he was the last two years.
I like Darrel Henderson as a nice backup/safety option in case of a setback or re-injury next year, but Henderson is being over-drafted right now in dynasty and redraft / best ball leagues. In a rookie draft, you're going to have to spend a 1st rounder to nab him. Given the quality talent at rookie wide receiver, unless I'm sitting in the 1.10-1.12 range with a need at running back, I won't have Henderson on my team this season.
Hindery
I'm not a buyer of Gurley at this point for two reasons. First, there is obvious reason for concern about the health of his knee. He didn't look right in the playoffs and nothing we have heard in the offseason has been particularly reassuring. Plus, even if Gurley is basically fine in the short-term, the injury could still seriously impact his longevity. The risk is significant. Second, the potential reward might be as high as thought either. Darrell Henderson is a talented young back who should be able to carve out some role in the backfield. Even if Henderson is just the Austin Ekeler to Gurley's Melvin Gordon, he probably takes away enough touches and receptions from Gurley to limit his ceiling to something more in the mid-RB1 range than overall RB1. Due to the risk and reward profile, I would only buy if the price falls further. For example, I have declined trade proposals offering Gurley straight up for Joe Mixon.
Bloom
Gurley doesn't sound too optimistic about how he'll feel this season and at this point I'm afraid the issue is mental as much as physical, which makes me wish he had some sort of procedure in the offseason if only as a placebo. Henderson has as high a long-term fantasy ceiling as anyone in the rookie class, and he is extremely undervalued in early rookie drafts when he falls to the second round.
Parsons
If I own Todd Gurley, now is not the time to sell. A few quality games from Gurley in September and his dynasty teams are off to a good start and his market value returns to the pre-hand-wringing level. Darrell Henderson was a concerning level of investment on Day 2 for Gurley, but Malcolm Brown is coming off injury, on a one-year deal, and the Rams needed a pipeline option who can fill in as a starter or potentially be the 1A back if Gurley is not a long-term option.
Tefertiller
Most of Gurley's fantasy owners still want full value so I have been out of the market for him. I do see Gurley having two or three more quality – maybe short of elite – seasons left, but the price is too high given the risk. Bringing Brown back, and drafting the talented Henderson, should tell fantasy owners how the Rams feel about the longevity of their star. Also, it is difficult to put out of mind how C.J. Anderson was used late in the postseason. Obviously, something is/was wrong and we still do not have clarity months later.
Tyreek Hill
Are you buying, selling, or holding Tyreek Hill? If buying, what is your expected purchase price? Price for selling?
Simpkins
We don't always know what's going on behind the scenes with players and we shouldn't be as quick to judge them as we sometimes are. That said, I've never in the recent past been a Hill proponent because he's one of the clearer cases of a man who has character problems. I don't own him across any of my leagues, but if I did, I would be looking to get out. Can you get a mid-second rounder or a future second for him at this point? If so, I would consider it.
Hicks
In the staff dynasty league, Hill is on my roster. I have no choice, but to keep him until his situation is resolved, one way or another. I am not a proponent of punishing players outside what the law dictates. If the law deals inadequately with issues, that is another topic. If others deal with the team or player in a different way, that is their prerogative. Given the league's recent history, Hill is likely to miss half or a full season and then just needs to be on an NFL roster to continue his high production. Nothing is a given in this situation, so if a player wants to get Tyreek Hill on their roster or get rid of him, the prices will fluctuate wildly given what changes from day to day.
Wood
I don't have Tyreek Hill on any dynasty rosters because life's too short to root for someone with his history. This latest news about abusing his 3-year old son is both horrifying and unsurprising. We already knew Hill was a violent person with major issues. He assaulted his pregnant girlfriend in college. If you happen to have HIll on a roster, now is the time to take 40 cents on the dollar because he'll be worth next to nothing soon.
Grant
As you can tell from previous answers, this really comes down to a personal decision. Being cold and factual for a couple of seconds:
- Hill produces big numbers when he plays.
- The NFL may punish players for conduct off the field for a time, but as long as #1 is happening, there will be a place for them to play.
So - back to your roster. If you have an issue with Hill as a person and don't want to have him on your roster anymore, you'll sell him for whatever you can get. Uncertainty about his future will mean no one will give you a like for like trade (would you give up DeAndre Hopkins or Davante Adams for Hill today? Probably not). As Jason points out, you'll probably get less than half of what he's capable of in a trade right now. Assuming you can find someone who even wants to assume the risk.
Hindery
In leagues my wide receiver depth is strong enough to take the hit should Hill never play again, I am buying if the price is right. At this point, the right price for me is a mid-late second round rookie pick. For example, I traded the 2.10 and 3.11 for him in one league. The risk is high enough with Hill that I prefer rookie wide receivers like D.K. Metcalf, Parris Campbell, Deebo Samuel, Marquise Brown, A.J. Brown, and Mecole Hardman over him. Once that tier of wide receivers is gone, the reward starts to justify the risk for me.
Bloom
I solid him John Ross, a late 2020 2nd and an early 2019 4th in a 14 team PPR league with 3 starting wide receivers and two flex positions. The most likely outcome for this year is the commissioner's exempt list, and he has probably played his last game for Kansas City. There's always a chance that more will come out and effectively end his career and the risk of a future incident. Hill will take up an end of the roster spot while we wait this out, which adds value to trading him. I'm fine with getting a dart in this year's Top 20 or next year's first two rounds for him to be free of the drama after a tumultuous offseason.
Rookie Tight Ends
Which rookie tight end has the best chance for a Pro Bowl appearance and why?
Simpkins
T.J. Hockenson and Irv Smith Jr. would both be excellent choices, but I'm going to go with Jace Sternberger here. Packers head coach Matt LaFleur favors tight end-centric offenses that can run 11- and 12-personnel looks. He would have implemented this last year in Tennessee if Delanie Walker had not been lost for the year in week one. I expect that Sternberger is also the least likely of those three to be expected to do significant blocking work early in his career. That could free him up for extra pass-catching opportunities that Hockenson and Irv Smith Jr. may not enjoy initially. Late-career Jimmy Graham is relatively little to overcome in terms of depth chart competition, so I expect to see Sternberger catching balls sooner than some might think.
Hicks
An NFL roster having an idea of how to utilize the position correctly and then also having the offense required to get a player to a pro bowl is a short list. Of the guys most likely, players drafted in the first three rounds, Drew Sample, Noah Fant, and Jace Sternberger all land on teams with a first-year head coach. That could be good or bad and therefore unpredictable. Dawson Knox and Kahale Warring land on teams not known for high-end production from the position, which leaves us with T.J. Hockenson in Detroit, Irv Smith in Minnesota and Josh Oliver in Jacksonville. All are unlikely to blow it up in their first year and therefore to answer the question we need to play the long game. Will Detroit persist with Matt Patricia for another season if the team struggles in 2019? Same with Jacksonville. Same could occur to Mike Zimmer in Minnesota as well, but Irv Smith probably lands in the best situation where he can learn from a pro in Kyle Rudolph for a year. Situation and stability are everything in the NFL.
Wood
If you're asking about a Pro Bowl appearance in 2019, it's Irv Smith Jr. There is a lot of noise about Minnesota parting ways with Kyle Rudolph soon, which would insert Smith into a vitally important role on an offense with a top-10 quarterback. If you're asking about the rookie tight end with the greatest career potential, it's T.J. Hockenson and it's not close. Hockenson is a once in a generation talent and will make an impact as both a blocker and receiver. He's the second coming of Jason Witten with an extra dose of red zone explosiveness.
Grant
He still has Jimmy Graham to content with, but I drafted Jace Sternberger in the staff league because I like his upside and long-term potential. The Packers are going through a transformation, but as long as Aaron Rodgers has at least one good leg, he's going to move the ball and the Packers are going to be dangerous. Without a quality No. 2 behind Davante Adams, Sternberger has good red zone potential and a new offense might also mean new opportunities for this guy. Plus, you can nab him in the second round of many rookie drafts.
Hindery
I'm a believer in T.J. Hockenson. He should instantly step into an every-down role and the Lions badly need a trustworthy underneath pass catcher to emerge to complement outside receivers Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones. I'm targeting him in the mid-late first round in TE-premium leagues and late first or early second in leagues without premium scoring.
Bloom
T.J. Hockenson is the easy call because he'll play the most and contribute the most on the bottom line (i.e. including his blocking ability), but Jace Sternberger has as much fantasy potential as anyone in this group because of the quality of his quarterback and lack of strong competition at wide receiver for targets outside of Davante Adams.
Parsons
With a Pro Bowl objective, I will side with T.J. Hockenson as a two-way option and potentially dominant blocker. The Lions are quietly building an elite run game with their offensive line, Hockenson adding to their front line, and Kerryon Johnson returning from injury. I fully expect Noah Fant to be the more dynamic and productive receiver, but Hockenson is the highest floor tight end in the class.
Tefertiller
I am fully entrenched on the Irv Smith, Jr bandwagon but think Fant and Hockenson have a shot, too. Given the depth of the class, there are three third-round tight ends who are an afterthought in rookie drafts. Each of Josh Oliver, Dawson Knox, and Kahale Warring could make the Pro Bowl. All are in a great situation to succeed on teams without receiver talent and depth.
5. How large of a drop in production are you projecting for Antonio Brown now that he is in Oakland? Is he enough to propel Derek Carr to fantasy relevance?
Simpkins
The Raiders want to be a run-first offense that limits Derek Carr to being a game manager. Oakland showed that intent when they drafted Josh Jacobs in the first round. Also, the quality of Brown's quarterback, the offensive line protecting his quarterback, and the complementary receiving options are not as good as they were in Pittsburgh. That being said, it's easy to project a significant decrease in production that will knock him out of the top ten at the position. Less than 1,000 yards and less than eight touchdowns seem to be a foregone conclusion.
Hicks
With Jon Gruden in charge, it will be very difficult for Derek Carr to be anything more than a borderline fantasy prospect for 2019. Even with Antonio Brown at his peak, the run game and defense are where this team wants to excel. With Brown hitting 31 before the start of the season, I would also be concerned how any kind of drop off from his previous form will be handled by the player himself who has shown himself to be the modern-day diva at the position. Managing Brown will be a full-time job in relation to keeping him happy, without jeopardizing the game plan. Opposing defenses are going to torment Brown, which given his volatile recent nature should be an explosive mix. Brown will have his good days, but his years of 100 plus receptions are likely to be well gone.
Wood
Brown's days as the best fantasy receiver are over. He'll be lucky to gain 1,100+ yards and 7-8 touchdowns from here. His talent and a high-volume passing offense will keep Brown from being a disaster, but he's now a low-end fantasy No. 1 after a career as a transcendent, Hall of Fame caliber producer.
Grant
In re-draft leagues, I have Antonio Brown on the overvalued list. Right now, people expect almost a one-to-one comparison and I just don't see that happening in Oakland. He'll put up WR2 type numbers in most 1- team PPR leagues (top 25), maybe even push into the bottom of the 'top 12' tier, but I see that as a best case scenario for him. As for Carr, he's the bottom half of a quarterback by committee situation now. I don't see him as a starter now. More of a situation starter/ bye week play at best. In a dynasty league, I have him on 'avoid/sell'.
Hindery
I'm not projecting much of a drop compared to Brown's 2018 numbers. He is still going to see a ton of targets and Derek Carr is capable enough to expect another WR1 fantasy season from Brown. While I expect Carr's numbers to improve, the bar for fantasy relevancy in single quarterback leagues is extremely high right now and I can't see Carr having much fantasy value in the format. Even established guys like Philip Rivers, Kirk Cousins, and Tom Brady are being drafted as QB2s currently, which just highlights how many strong options there are at the position heading into 2019.
Bloom
Quarterback is bloated with starters for fantasy, so Carr won't get above that line with Brown, but he might be a more viable streamer in good matchups. Brown might not drop much in catches, but his yards and touchdowns will fall off with a quarterback who loves to throw short, high percentage passes. He's more of a third-round consideration than first, even in PPR.