Trades have ripple effects around the NFL because they change the dynamics of the team giving up the player as well as those receiving him. This is especially true for the two teams involved in the trade for receiver Emmanuel Sanders. This week's Gut Check will explore the potential short-term and long-term impact of these deals on the player dealt as well as the receivers on the depth charts where they're arriving as well as whom they left behind.
THE EMMANUEL SANDERS DEAL—49ERS
The rationale behind the deal: Sanders has been unhappy in Denver prior to his Achilles tear. Much like C.J. Anderson, Sanders felt that Denver's reluctance to negotiate a new deal was a sign that they didn't value his past and present contributions. Considering that Denver wasted three years on Devontae Booker and dickered around with wholesale scheme changes to the offensive line so it could prove John Elway correct about investing highly in Booker, a below-average runner at reading leverage of blocks, it's understandable that Sanders would be displeased with the organization.
The 49ers have entered a window of contention thanks to its defense and running game. The unit requiring the greatest improvement is the passing game. Jimmy Garoppolo has several years of NFL tenure but he's essentially a second-year player in terms of game experience and he's still experiencing ups and downs that come with the learning curve of a young quarterback.
Compounding this issue is a depth chart filled with receivers who are either inexperienced and/or lacking versatility. Marquise Goodwin is a vertical threat with inconsistent hands and 1-2 routes that he runs well between the numbers. Kyle Shanahan believes that Dante Pettis can become a great NFL receiver but summer injuries slowed his progression and his methods are a little unconventional because he wins later in routes than some quarterbacks are comfortable with targeting without gaining a strong rapport with him.
Although Pettis can play split end (X) and flanker (Z), Shanahan has Pettis mostly in the slot (F). Because Trent Taylor and Richie James are essentially slot receivers, they're only earning bit parts despite promising skills in this role.
Deebo Samuel has the excellent athletic ability of a future star but if you're watching closely enough, you'll notice that he has issues working free of press coverage and his route running is still a work in progress. Shanahan uses Samuel in high-leverage situations—often as a gadget player—but the reasons I just stated are why demands for him to see more of the field weren't going to happen this year.
Jalen Hurd has promising route skills, great athletic ability, and the versatility to play the slot, outside, H-Back, or even running back (he was a five-star recruit at the position and, when healthy, a pretty good starter at Tennessee. Hurd's back injury has slowed his acclimation and as with every receiver on the depth chart who isn't one-dimensional Goodwin, he lacks experience.
Sanders gives Shanahan an experienced and versatile receiver who can play every position, run every route, and he understands the precision required of a great passing game thanks to his years with Peyton Manning. Sanders's work with Ben Roethlisberger also gives him experience playing with a masterful improviser and Garappolo's mobility is something that the receivers must maximize.
Short-term: Sanders' transition from Denver to San Francisco should be a short one because Broncos' offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello was the 49ers quarterback coach last year and brought Kyle Shanahan's offense to Denver. There may be differences in terminology and Shanahan has different wrinkles in his playbook, but the foundation of the offenses is similar enough that, worst case, Sanders should be up to full speed within 2-3 weeks and even capable of seeing significant time on the field immediately.
Sanders takes the pressure off Goodwin, who is not a primary receiver and doesn't generate a lot of every-down respect. Sanders will generate that respect more often. His presence will force opposing defenses into a conundrum with which of the two receivers earns the safety help.
Sanders's versatility also allows Shanahan to have his corp play in different positions more often, which is not only why he values Sanders but also a big reason why he drafted Pettis and Hurd. This will create more mismatches for Sanders, Goodwin, and Pettis.
This analysis isn't forgetting George Kittle. He's the reason why we know that the current receivers aren't making opponents pay for the attention Kittle requires.
Kittle is the team's most productive aerial component in a passing offense that has earned two quality fantasy games in seven weeks—against Cincinnati and Cleveland. The other top aerial producers in those games were Goodwin, Samuel, and Raheem Moster (vs. Cincinnati) and Matt Brieda (vs. Cleveland).
No 49ers receiver has earned 90 yards in a game this year and the unit has only scored 4 touchdowns in 7 games. Kittle has the only 100-yard effort and he only has 1 touchdown this year.
If the 49ers want to win in the playoffs against quality defenses, it will need more diversification and consistency with its offensive attack, which is where Sanders can help immediately. With Joe Flacco, Sanders has earned 86-yard, 98-yard, and 104-yard weeks and two touchdowns as the second fiddle to Courtland Sutton. His 30-367-2 season box score doubles Samuel's team-leading production prior to the trade.
Expect Sanders to earn the primary role and become Garappolo's go-to option. Look for Goodwin's targets to decrease but his efficiency to increase—if he can hold onto the ball AND stay healthy, which has been no small feat for him.
Samuel should continue earning high-leverage, gadget, and glorified running-back-in-space targets. His efficiency should also climb but his weekly production will remain as unpredictable Goodwin's. Both Goodwin and Samuel will have an enhanced opportunity to deliver fantasy value against reactive and undisciplined defenses like Arizona (twice), Seattle (its secondary, not its linebackers) and Atlanta.
Kittle should see a significant bump in production that could lead to bigger plays because of Sanders's ability to stretch the field vertically and horizontally, which will run off coverage that would otherwise reach Kittle earlier when he transitions upfield after the catch. Look for Kittle to have big weeks against the Cardinals, Packers, Ravens, Saints, Falcons, and Rams.
Pettis is the wildcard. The attention that Sanders and Kittle command should give Pettis a lot of winnable matchups from the slot or against No.2 corners from the outside. At the same time, Sanders's presence and the 49ers' reliance on 21 personnel (two receivers, two backs, and one tight end) with the run game won't elevate Pettis's volume unless Kyle Shanahan's rationale for the acquisition is to use more three-receiver sets of 11 personnel.
If the 49ers increase its usage of 11 personnel, Pettis becomes a good flex-play in fantasy. If it doesn't, he's a bye-week or match-up play if the rest of the depth chart remains healthy.
For all of you skimmers out there, here's the re-draft outlook:
- Garappolo: An enhanced shot at earning top-15 production for the rest of the year but consider him on the low-end of that spectrum as a match-up play.
- Kittle: Sanders's presence bumps Kittle from low-end TE1 production to elite TE1 production.
- Sanders: He has top-15 WR potential in PPR leagues the rest of the way.
- Pettis: Top-48 WR potential in PPR leagues if 49ers maintain alignment patterns with 21 personnel vs. 11 personnel. He has top-36 potential if the 49ers use more 11 personnel after the trade.
- Goodwin, Samuel, and Kendrick Bourne: Strictly bye-week matchup plays versus reactive and undisciplined defenses.
Long-Term: Because Sanders is 32 years old, it's best advised to consider his viability on a year-to-year basis from this point forward. As Adam Harstad has shared with his research, the cliff doesn't arrive at a certain age and decline isn't gradual as much as it is sudden.
The 49ers acquired Sanders for the short-term production and the potential long-term impact of his mentoring this young group of talented receivers as well as indirectly influencing the inexperienced Garoppolo. He's the influence that can help bridge the gap between talent and inexperience.
His skills and experience should help Pettis and Garoppolo enhance their rapport and influence Samuel and Hurd's development against press coverage. Richie James is an underrated talent who has untapped skill on the perimeter and he might also benefit.
Consider Sanders's acquisition a long-term, net positive for its quarterback and receivers with no more than two years of experience.
THE EMMANUEL SANDERS DEAL—BRONCOS
The rationale behind the deal: The Broncos are essentially out of contention and in rebuild mode because, among other important factors, John Elway's ability to select specific talent is appearing inversely proportional to his skill as a player. Because of Sanders's age, he's a year-to-year player approaching the cliff at some point, so getting draft picks for a player who probably didn't want to be in Denver due to past comments about his contract is a solid decision.
If the Broncos truly expected Joe Flacco to elevate this offense with his experience, then consider the decision a failure at this point. He's efficient with completion percentage but his six touchdowns and five interceptions are an indication that he's not making a difference where it matters most.
Rookie Drew Lock will likely earn playing time as soon as the Broncos are mathematically eliminated from contention. If I were them, I'd also elevate Brett Rypien from the practice squad because he's arguably a better prospect than Lock despite the mass media assessments to the contrary.
Think I'm nuts? Look back at Paxton Lynch-Chad Kelly. On the field, Kelly was way more promising.
With Lock in the lineup, Denver will also get a chance to assess its youth at receiver—specifically DaeSean Hamilton and Juwann Winfree.
Short-term: Courtland Sutton's improvement this year is a promising storyline for a receiver with elite athletic skills. Entering the NFL, Sutton possessed rudimentary route skills and awful techniques with his hands.
Imagine the Florida Gator fans clapping when the team scores a touchdown and it's a somewhat (and I mean somewhat) exaggerated version of the way Sutton attacked and dropped the football at SMU and last year in Denver. Even when Sutton used the correct hands' position for the attack fo the ball, he often caught the ball with his palms instead of his fingertips, which generates greater recoil when his mitts make contact with the target.
Sutton's gator-clapping tendencies are diminishing and so is his rate of egregious drops. Although he's catching the ball more often, he's still fighting the ball a little more than you'd like to see from a primary receiver. As long as Sutton continues working at his craft, he's heading in the right direction.
Expect him to continue leading this team in targets but his efficiency will likely drop without Sanders occasionally commanding the top cornerback on the opposing defense. With Sanders gone, it's more likely that opponents will feel comfortable with the idea of shadowing Sutton with its best option if it lacks two quality defensive backs.
When discussing players to acquire or avoid during the second-half fo the season, I listed Sutton as an "avoid" despite his current top-15 production. One of the salient reasons I didn't state at the time was Denver's downward trajectory of an organization, which could lead to Flacco giving way to Lock.
With this switch appearing to have a greater likelihood with each passing week, expect Sutton's efficiency to drop even more. The only way this doesn't happen is if Noah Fant stops fighting the ball, Hamilton shows more separation when used outside or facing single coverage from the slot, and/or Winfree builds on his preseason success in a big way.
Fant is a big-time athlete with Sutton's rookie issues as a route runner and pass-catcher. He wows on occasion but I would not bet on him as a consistent producer this year and remain wary enough of his long-term outlook that I wouldn't go trading for him as a potential breakout player despite his athletic skills putting him on a slew of breakout lists by formulaic and myopic football media who still subscribe to the magical theory of athlete maturing into technician via osmosis.
Hamilton could generate volume as a PPR bye-week option because he's a smart route runner who can work underneath. However, beyond the occasional play-action deep crossing route or a corner route paired with a linebacker, he's not going to generate big plays so his yardage efficiency will remain low.
Winfree is the best bet at surprising. He's big, strong, quick, possesses an excellent catch radius, and he's a true student of the game who has impressed Denver's defense early on because of what he knows, how he works, and how he performed. However, he's paired with a mediocre starting quarterback and potentially a rookie passer who is known for undisciplined play.
Winfree can win 50/50 routes and he has some yards-after-the-catch skills. Consider him a desperation bye-week matchup if he earns enough volume for roster consideration. If you take him before he earns this consideration as a preemptive pickup, you're seeking at least 4-6 targets per game within the next 2-3 weeks to justify hanging onto him as anything more than an end-of-roster lottery/luxury pick.
Once again, the skimmer re-draft outlook:
- Flacco: He's at best, a match-up play. In other words, nothing new.
- Lock: Maybe a garbage-time, desperation bye-week bet.
- Sutton: With Flacco, expect a decrease in efficiency without Sanders and a decline to top-20 or top-24 production, at best. With Lock, that drop could go as low as fantasy WR3 value.
- Winfree: With Flacco, Winfree has a WR3 ceiling but it will require a surprising amount of rapport and fast acclimation from a rookie. The rational projection for his ceiling is WR4-WR5. If Sutton gets hurt, Winfree could become a default WR3-WR4 due to enhanced volume. If Lock earns playing time, Winfree becomes a wildcard with WR3 upside but it's much smarter to expect a lot less, which means dropping him if the first two weeks don't merit promising volume.
- Hamilton: Even when he's earning 4-6 targets, he's caching no more than a couple of passes per game with the exception of a 3-57 performance in Week 4 against the Jaguars. What you see is likely what you're going to get—a good college player who performed well in all-star practices but either tips-off his routes during games or isn't on the same page with his quarterback. He earns renewed potential to connect with a new quarterback if Lock earns a shot.
- Fant: Elway wants his first-round pick to succeed, so he'll continue earning 4-6 targets and catching maybe a third of them with the possibility of a big play every 3-5 weeks.
Long-Term: We can lock-in Sutton as Denver's desired primary option for the next 2-3 seasons, even with a potential change at GM and/or head coach. Elway will likely force-feed Fant on this coaching staff for as long as he remains GM in the same way he did with Booker and Lynch.
Fant might be the most promising of these three big-time athletes who lack top-end conceptual and technical skills for the game but it's still appropriate to lump him into this group. If you have Fant, ride it out and hope for the best unless someone offers you a first-round or second-round pick in rookie drafts.
Winfree has the potential to become a fantasy WR2 but he'll need and offense and quarterback who believe in him. The fact that the defense liked him early on is a good first step. The Sanders trade is a promising second step. Now, Winfree must generate trust in his quarterback(s), which means great communication, consistent route running, and catching the football on at least the easy, timing routes.
I stress the easy timing routes where he's open. If you watch young NFL receivers closely, you know that fantasy players get excited about the big-time athletic displays on 50/50 balls and add these receivers in an enthusiastic rush for gold only to discover they can't get open consistently and/or drop the easy targets. If Winfree can remain consistent with the little details, he will increasingly earn trust with the bigger opportunities.
I would buy-low on Winfree (4th or 5th pick in rookie drafts and perhaps a 3rd if he converts at a solid rate while earning 4-6 targets per week after 2-3 weeks).
I would wait 4-5 weeks just in case something changes, but if you still have Hamilton, I would ditch him. I think Denver will be drafting receivers in 2020 and it's a promising draft class to do so.