Welcome to this week's roundtable, where our fearless panel of fantasy pundits dive preemptive playoff stashes, play a game of fantasy true-false, share which NFL players they think are underrated, and share a football-related topic that has humbled them this year.
With this in mind, let's examine what we think about these topics as we head into Week 13:
Let's roll...
Humble Pie
Matt Waldman: Happy Thanksgiving fellas, have a slice of humble pie. Take a piece and pass it around the table. Leave enough for everyone so that each of you can share something during the past 365 days that has humbled you about your knowledge of the game.
Jeff Pasquino: The first bite for me is that Pittsburgh could not survive losing two of the three "B"s in their offense. No Le'Veon Bell and no Antonio Brown left Big Ben a big mess. That led to the third "B", which was a broken Ben Roethlisberger—and a trash heap in the wake that is the Pittsburgh offense.
Not even JuJu could have enough "ju-ju" to survive and perform as an elite receiver. I thought that the Steelers could keep on putting up solid fantasy numbers, but such was not the case this year. Not even the departed Brown and Bell could live up to their lofty rankings entering 2019, and I fell into that trap.
Jason Wood: I've mentioned this previously, but we (myself included) have got to get better at assimilating the offensive line into our projections models. Most don't bother at all, and those who do really are going by feel for how talented a unit is and knocking players up or down a tier depending on changes to the line. Few, if any, are able to effectively address the impact changes have in terms of cohesion and game-to-game impact. Yet, it's a massive facet of what makes offenses succeed or fail.
Sean Settle: I have spent more time this year examining wide receiver-cornerback matchups than ever before. I signed up to write a new article here and it has made me look at things from a whole new direction. I used to just look at receiver matchups against a defense as a whole and not just based on who would be in coverage or how a defense performs against a particular type of receiver.
For example, the Saints defense has been towards the lower end at covering receivers, but Marshon Lattimore has shut down Mike Evans both times the teams have met. He shutout Evans the first time they played in the season and I would have never considered that matchup until this year. Benching Evans would have never crossed my mind until I started looking at specific coverages and matchups and that is something I have done for the first time this year.
Maurile Tremblay: I do player projections each week, and I keep track of how far reality departs from my projections in a range of areas. One area where such divergence is often sizable is in my predicted number of offensive plays a given team will run in a game.
It's hard to predict because it depends on a whole variety of factors, among them: how long the team typically lets the play clock run down before snapping the ball, on average; the team's run-pass ratio; the team's ability to sustain drives; the team's ability, on defense, to prevent the opposing team from sustaining drives; and how each of those factors can change depending on whether the team is ahead or behind, and by how much.
That last factor is often especially important and is complicated by the fact that, unavoidably, game scripts are rather stochastic. I build betting lines and over/under from sportsbooks into my projections model, and while I think they are the best predictors of a game script available, they are regularly pretty far off.
So it's hard. And I'm significantly wrong quite often. But I think it's an area where I can find incremental improvements as I refine my approach ... a task I plan to spend meaningful effort on this offseason.
Justin Howe: I’ve been sucked in—and burned—too often by chasing matchups, as usual. Volume tells the tale, not matchup, far more often than not. A workhorse back facing the Buccaneers’ stout run defense is almost always a better play than praying Matt Breida will light up the Bengals over 8-10 touches. Besides, often the matchup for DeAndre Hopkins or Stefon Diggs is so attractive because their opponent isn’t just a bad pass defense: it’s a bad team in general. That speaks to game flow, which speaks to volume expectation, which can swing a fantasy week wildly, even for names like those.
Waldman: I evaluate skill positions for a living and the wide receiver humbles me annually. There are several reasons why.
The variability of grades that NFL teams assign receivers makes the projection of a receiver's success a difficult job. I've broached this before with readers but every year, there are teams that will assign a receiver a grade as high as a second-round value while the rest of the league has him somewhere between the fourth round and undrafted.
Because draft capital often determines the number of practice reps a player earns and it inherently generates a bias among coaches to be more forgiving of errors and still think the prospect has promise, draft capital may be an inaccurate method of predicting talent but it has merits as an indicator of meaningful opportunities.
Grades for receivers are so variable because there are three different positions within the title "wide receiver" and some receivers will have higher or lower grades based on those positions a team seeks. In addition, teams may value the combinations of roles that a receiver can play differently.
Then there are the technical skills of the position and determining which skills are the easiest to learn and which are the most difficult to master if not already refined during college. The deeper I got into the wide receiver position, the more subtleties I learn that have significance for evaluating the position.
Although I've had my share of successes with evaluating the position, I've been far from satisfied with my process. This fall, I've researched the work of some experienced wide receiver coaches and have an entire wall of notes in my offense that will be applied to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio's evaluation process for the position.
Because I choose to evaluate talent rather than predict draft spot, my grades will always have stark differences than many NFL teams. I'm ok with this despite it meaning some players I like more or less will have easier or more difficult paths to playing time for the bias I mentioned. The thing I want to improve is refining my understanding of the subtleties of the position to the point that I can do a better job of outlining a range of possibilities for individual players that transcend a grade.
I believe I do this well with running backs and quarterbacks. I want to do this better with receivers.
PReemptive Playoff Stashes
Waldman: Name a player you believe has a shot of becoming a worthwhile playoff contributor that you should preemptively stash. You cannot name a current NFL starter or established contributors like Bo Scarbrough or Jonathan Williams.
Howe: Fantasy folk headed to the playoffs need to cut loose a backup kicker (or A.J. Green) to add Gus Edwards. Talk about a handcuff with league-winning potential. Nobody runs the ball more than the Ravens (39 times a game), nor as effectively (5.7 yards per rush). We already saw what Edwards can do in this run-centric offense and behind this stout run-blocking Baltimore line. He’s a career 5.2-yard rusher, and as the starter down the 2018 stretch, he put up 93 per start. He was also the league’s most effective short-yardage runner last year, converting on 11 of 13 such attempts. If Mark Ingram or Lamar Jackson were to go down, Edwards would find himself in a central role for the league’s best team. That’s deep-fried fantasy gold.
Waldman: This may be the one thing you state today about running backs where we'll be in agreement. Edwards earns a steady workload for a second-string back, runs hard, runs smart, and plays for a team that may have have a shot at resting its starters in Weeks 15-16 and against some favorable run defenses.
Tremblay: Alexander Mattison is the player with the highest upside who is currently available in many fantasy leagues. If Dalvin Cook were to miss any time down the stretch, I believe Mattison would step right in and hardly miss a beat. He'd be a fantasy RB1, which I would not say about the other top handcuffs (other than Rashaad Penny, who is already rostered for the most part).
Pasquino: I very much like the call of Alex Mattison, and it cannot be ignored that some teams may look for spots to rest players in Weeks 15-17 as teams get ready for the postseason. If the Vikings do find themselves locked into the Wild Card spot, Mattison could easily see more time. Look for teams that may be locked into a playoff spot and seed entering fantasy championship week (NFL Week 16) for second-stringers to get more opportunities.
I'm going to re-direct my pick a bit given that Philadelphia just shuffled their wide receiving depth chart. Alshon Jeffery and rookie JJ Arcega-Whiteside are the likely starters down the stretch, with Nelson Agholor as their third option. That pushes Greg Ward back down the depth chart, but the focus now is Arcega-Whiteside.
He was a second-round selection (57th overall) by the Eagles in April, and now is the time where he can step up and deliver for an offense that needs a playmaker at the position. He's well-built (6'2", 225)—similar to DK Metcalf (6'3", 228) with slightly less speed than Metcalf (Arcega-Whiteside ran a 4.49, Metcalf a 4.33). The opportunity is here for the rookie to step up against the likes of Miami, the Giants (twice), Dallas and Washington (Week 17) down the stretch.
Settle: There is not a lot that has gone right in Pittsburgh this season and it does not look like it is going to finish any better. They somehow have a winning record and are in the hunt for a wild card spot but that will quickly sour if they lose to the Browns this week.
That brings me to my stash player. Benny Snell has emerged as the best running option in that offense right now. James Conner is banged up and there is no reason to try and push him in what may quickly turn into a lost season.
Jaylen Samuels has proved to be nothing more than a pass catcher and the Steelers are now on their third-string quarterback. Snell has a chance to lead that backfield down the stretch and contribute to any team in their playoffs.
Wood: N'Keal Harry comes to mind. The Patriots are 10-1 yet the offense feels like smoke and mirrors. New England activated Harry a week ago and still has a bright future considering his draft stock. I could see him working into the rotation and possibly overtaking the likes of Phillip Dorsett and Jakobi Myers by the time the fantasy playoffs roll around.
Pasquino: The Philadelphia Eagles have a very soft schedule the rest of the way, and locker room leader Jason Peters knows that they have to win out to make the postseason. Dallas and Philadelphia will likely have a "win and in" game in Week 16 to decide the NFC East, but picking up a player from the Eagles with a soft schedule and a must-win attitude could lead to fantasy success.
Greg Ward is in his third year as a pro following a stellar collegiate career as the quarterback for the University of Houston. Philadelphia has desperate needs for help at wideout with DeSean Jackson out for the regular season and Alshon Jeffery battling injuries, so Ward was brought back up from the practice squad and played a significant amount of time last week against Seattle (37 snaps, 6-40 receiving on seven targets on a windy afternoon). The third-year player could help fantasy teams in need of wide receiver help as he may get the chance to start the rest of the year for a team looking for a spark at the position.
Fantasy True-False
Waldman: Pick one of these statements and explain why they are true or false.
- Falcons runner Qadree Ollison has better fantasy upside down the stretch of 2019 than Brian Hill.
- Carolina's new addition Mike Davis will be a factor during the fantasy playoffs.
- Ryan Tannehill is the No.2 fantasy QB for the past seven weeks and he'll be a fantasy QB1 if he stays in Tennessee next year.
- Bruce Arians is wrapping up the first of a two-year plan to turn Jameis Winston's career around and his performance against Atlanta where he displayed greater maturity in key situations was a first-indicator of that turnaround.
- T.J. Hockenson is going to be a bust.
- Ezekiel Elliott is not an elite running back.
- N'Keal Harry will emerge down the stretch as a fantasy starter.
What advice do you have to offer our readers based on the statement you chose?
Pasquino: I'm going to say "true and false" with Atlanta's backs. Ollison has looked and performed way better than Hill in the last two games for Atlanta, earning two touchdowns in short-yardage situations the past two weeks. Neither Ollison (12-31 rushing, 1-7 receiving) nor Hill (24-44, 4-21) over those two contests, and DeVanta Freeman is due back soon. Freeman may be limited or out on a short week (Atlanta hosts the Saints Thursday night) but odds are that he gets the bulk of the work the rest of the season—but if he misses any time or if there are goal-to-go situations, Ollison will be the choice over Brian Hill.
Adam Harstad: Whatever you thought of T.J. Hockenson coming into this season, his rookie year performance to date shouldn't change your mind one way or the other.
Fun fact #1: in the last 30 years there have been six tight ends drafted in the top 10 picks of the NFL draft (including Hockenson). Every one of the previous five had at least one top-5 fantasy finish, and all of them except for Eric Ebron played into their thirties (Ebron is currently 26).
Fun fact No.2: The most receiving yards any of those tight ends had as a rookie was 386 by Rickey Dudley. Hockenson has 349 yards with five games left to go. He also leads the other five tight ends in catch percentage and yards per target.
Everyone knows that tight ends have one of the most difficult learning curves when transitioning to the NFL, but I think people lose sight of exactly what that looks like in practice. Tony Gonzalez had 368 yards as a rookie. Antonio Gates had 389. Shannon Sharpe had 99. Jason Witten had 347. Jimmy Graham had 356. Ben Coates had 95, Wesley Walls had 16, Brent Jones had 35, Greg Olsen had 391, Steve Jordan had 42, Jay Novacek had 4, Travis Kelce had zero, Dallas Clark had 340, Zach Ertz had 469, Todd Heap had 206. I could go on like this all day.
This is a "who's who" of the best fantasy tight ends of the last 40 years and none of them topped 500 yards. Hockenson is on pace for 507, which puts him in line with George Kittle (515) and Rob Gronkowski (546, though he did have ten touchdowns).
Whatever you thought of Hockenson coming into this season, his rookie year performance to date shouldn't change your mind one way or the other.
Fun fact No.2: The most receiving yards any of those tight ends had as a rookie was 386 by Rickey Dudley. Hockenson has 349 yards with five games left to go. He also leads the other five tight ends in catch percentage and yards per target.
Everyone knows that tight ends have one of the most difficult learning curves when transitioning to the NFL, but I think people lose sight of exactly what that looks like in practice. Tony Gonzalez had 368 yards as a rookie. Antonio Gates had 389. Shannon Sharpe had 99. Jason Witten had 347. Jimmy Graham had 356. Ben Coates had 95, Wesley Walls had 16, Brent Jones had 35, Greg Olsen had 391, Steve Jordan had 42, Jay Novacek had 4, Travis Kelce had zero, Dallas Clark had 340, Zach Ertz had 469, Todd Heap had 206. I could go on like this all day.
This is a "who's who" of the best fantasy tight ends of the last 40 years and none of them topped 500 yards. Hockenson is on pace for 507, which puts him in line with George Kittle (515) and Rob Gronkowski (546, though he did have ten touchdowns).
Waldman: Thank you, every year I tell people to be patient with rookies and to frame their expectations appropriately. Every year, few know what that means—or, when spelled out to them, they forget by midseason.
Wood: The Tannehill statement is true.
I've thanked my friend and colleague Daniel for convincing me to re-think my bearish stance on Lamar Jackson, and it's been an incredible boon this year. Hopefully, I'm repaying the favor by continually pointing out how well Ryan Tannehill is executing the Titans offense (Daniel's favorite team) versus how Marcus Mariota drove it into the ground.
Tannehill was always better than his Miami numbers indicated, and we're seeing him flourish now that he's had a few weeks of being the Titans' No. 1 signal-caller. There's no reason he can't continue to thrive given the Titans bevy of young skill players and solidified the offensive line.
Daniel Simpkins: I thank Jason for trying to sell me on Tannehill, but I’m not buying Tannehill as the savior of this fantasy season, let alone as the long-term future of the Titans at quarterback.
Before the season started and before the quarterback change occurred, most of our staff agreed that Tannehill was equal to or inferior to Marcus Mariota in terms of ability. It’s strange how his four wins for the Titans have pretty much changed that evaluation completely.
What I believe we are seeing is that Tannehill is performing better than Marcus Mariota, but that it’s not talent-related. What’s the difference, then? Tannehill still has his confidence and health intact and Marcus Mariota does not.
The coaching staff is notoriously tight-lipped, a principle they picked up from their time in New England. We did not find out about the extent of Mariota’s injuries last year until the off-season. It would not surprise me to learn after the season that Marcus Mariota was playing through yet another injury, most likely sustained in the Patriots preseason game.
He’s taken an astounding beating while being a Tennessee Titan because the line play has been poor through most of his tenure. Pair that with four offensive system changes in five years and you can see why his confidence would be completely shot. Tannehill, on the other hand, is currently healthy and invigorated by a fresh start with a new team.
Before the season, I believed that regardless of which quarterback was under center, the Titans would be competitive and have a fighting chance as long as the team was largely healthy. I assumed that Tennessee would hold true to its word that it would keep continuity from the system that Matt LaFleur installed the year prior. While the terminology is the same, the Titans have actually been closer conceptually to Ken Whisenhunt and Mike Mularkey did in their tenures.
Being as Arthur Smith is a holdover from those eras, it makes perfect sense that he would adopt some of those concepts. That said, I think we’ll see the same problems those coaches had. When things run as designed, the offense will be humming.
When teams throw a wrench into the design by being assignment sound and putting pressure on the quarterback that forces him to play outside of the offensive structure, the Tennessee offense will flounder. The Titans‘ offense continues to play well against undisciplined units and to sputter against those defenses that maintain gap integrity in run defense and don’t get sloppy when defending play-action concepts.
I’m expecting they’ll be coming back to earth starting this Sunday when they play a very well-coached and assignment-sound Colts team. Even as banged-up as the Colts are, they’ll probably win this game and have the Titans’ offense back to looking as lost as they did when they played the Panthers in early November.
Settle: There may be a little bias from this Ohio State alumni, but Elliott is still an elite running back in my opinion. This season may not look like what he has done in the past but there are several reasons for that.
Elliott held out and did not come into the season with the same preparation as everyone else. We saw a similar period of readjustment from Melvin Gordon when he held out as well.
The Cowboys game plan has also been different this year. Dak Prescot leads the league in passing yards and Dallas continues to call his number to try and win games.
Despite those trends, teams continue to stack the box in an effort to stop Elliott and make Dak beat them through the air. Elliott still has 8 total touchdowns and 5 games with 100 or more yards rushing. The elite numbers are still there even without it feeling like the team is going through him.
With Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup on the outside and Randall Cobb finding his old form, the Cowboys have become a pass-first offense. Elliott will see defenses back off to cover those receivers and his numbers will start to jump off the page again.
Tremblay: The Carolina-Mike Davis statement is false. The Panthers' offense suffers when Christian McCaffrey comes off the field, and McCaffrey has proven that he doesn't need to come off the field very often. As long as he stays healthy, he is the only running back in Carolina who will be a fantasy factor whatsoever. Moreover, I believe Reggie Bonnafon, not Mike Davis, would be the lead back if McCaffrey were to miss time. (Davis might not even push ahead of Jordan Scarlett in the rotation.)
Howe: Chase me with pitchforks if you want, but Elliott hasn’t shown anything of late that makes me think of him as a special back. He spent 2018 producing on a level that was above average, but not necessarily game-changing. Last year, Football Outsiders ranked him 18th among running backs in value per rushing play. Working behind the Cowboys’ dominant line, which is still packed with All-Pros, more is expected of an elite runner. He was also one of the league’s worst goal-line runners, converting on just 2 of his 11 attempts from inside the five. For reference’s sake, quarterback Dak Prescott went 5-of-7 on those runs.
Elliott caught a ton of passes last year, sure, but that usage hasn’t translated into 2019. Besides, he’s little more than a check-down option for Prescott. He’s not Christian McCaffrey or Duke Johnson Jr, lining up out wide and winning on downfield routes here and there. All told, his 6.1 yards per target over the past 2 seasons ranks 30th among all backs with 25+ targets. That falls behind the likes of T.J. Yeldon and Elijah McGuire. So, no, Elliott is not some indispensable fixture the Cowboys can’t live without. Frankly, they should have saved their money for the likes of Prescott, Amari Cooper, Byron Jones, and Xavier Woods.
Waldman: My greatest problem with the anti-Elliott arguments stems from the reliance on flawed data that does not match the eye-test of what you can see on the field. The entire EPA argument may have some significant flaws in their calculation. This is something that multiple data professionals have shared with me during the past six months, including a source who explained to me how the errors incorrectly short-changed Elliott's results—especially in the area of creating when the scheme isn't blocked correctly—across the board.
Some prominent writers in the national media have used this potentially incorrect data over and over without checking its validity. I qualified this has "potentially incorrect" because I want to cross-check it before I say I'm definitively debunking this work that's out there.
In terms of the eye-test, Elliott still forces opponents to focus on him in ways that the data is behind in reflecting. I haven't seen anything from data providers that does a sound job of reflecting the value of individual running backs on a team. Based on what I've been told and seen, I'm growing more skeptical of much of this information by the week.
It doesn't mean all data sites and analysis is useless—far from it. However, when I'm presented with information that I shared above, I hope to get some people I trust to cross-check it so I can be sure about what's out there on this subject.
Underrated NFL Players
Matt Waldman: Regardless of his fantasy production, who do you believe is an underrated football player based on the media hype he earns?
Howe: Marvin Jones just won’t stop making big plays. Jones is adept both on the deep ball and in the red zone, which makes him an absolute touchdown machine. Through 51 games as a Lion, he’s quietly found the end zone 26 times. He did the same stuff as a Bengal, as seen in his 10-score season back in 2013.
All told, over his six-plus seasons, he’s found the end zone on 7.3 percent of his targets, a dazzling rate that beats out the likes of Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, and Mike Evans over that span. There’s a ton of talk about Kenny Golladay, and it’s warranted—Golladay is a dynamic young receiver. But Jones has been doing Golladay things for years, and with very little fanfare. Jones is a cut candidate next offseason when his release would save the rebuilding Lions $6.5 million. Some team will take on one of the game’s most proven playmakers, likely still spry at age 30, at a reasonable cost.
Waldman: Another player where we agree completely. He's an excellent route runner, contested-catch receiver, and YAC producer when used in these capacities. Seeking a receiver who can do it all? Jones is your guy.
Tremblay: I'll name Buccaneers defensive tackle Vita Vea. He was a high draft pick in 2018, but it took him a year to find his mojo. This season, while he doesn't have a lot of flashy stats, he has been a major disruptive force (along with Ndamukong Suh) clogging up opposing teams' rushing lanes. Vea is a large, powerful human being with excellent overall athleticism for his size, and has already developed into one of the best run defenders in the league.
Settle: Despite putting up great numbers all season long, John Brown has been underrated for the Bills this season. He has put up double-digit fantasy points in all but one game this season in PPR formats and in that one game against the Bengals, he still had 9.5 points.
The entire world seems to overlook Buffalo as a whole in what has been an impressive season so far. They pushed the Patriots to the brink with their backup quarterback in Week 4 and Brown has been at the center of that.
He is on pace to finish with 1,000 yards receiving for just the second time in his career and for the first time since his sophomore season in Arizona. He is posting the highest catch rate of his career and has a chance to tie or break his season-high in touchdowns. Buffalo has been a joke for so many seasons recently that everyone has overlooked them and Brown.
Wood: Kyle Rudolph is the most underrated tight end of his generation. He's so valuable as a blocker and so unselfish, it's hurt his offensive production in an era of hyper-productive tight ends. Unlike a lot of fantasy darlings, Rudolph isn't a receiver with an extra 20 pounds designated as the tight end, he's a throwback who punishes opposing defenders at every level. But, that obfuscates what a skilled route runner he's become, which is matched only by his sure-handedness. Rudolph on the Patriots or Chiefs would be a perennial All-Pro.
Harstad: Vernon Davis is out here giving Jason the side-eye...
Waldman: I just heard a "thwack!" Did Davis' grandma just smack Wood upside the head? I know he earned it. Rudolph is pretty good though.
Pasquino: Calvin Ridley is a WR1 and would be the top target on nearly any other franchise, yet he is viewed as the second option for the Falcons behind Julio Jones. While people are (justifiably) gushing over Chris Godwin in Tampa Bay with his breakout performance this year, Ridley is a solid fantasy WR2 in both standard (WR18) and PPR (WR20) scoring systems.
Two other names that came to mind right away are running backs, Mark Ingram and Latavius Murray. Murray was considered washed up and an afterthought in most fantasy circles coming into 2019, but he has performed well behind Alvin Kamara and filled the lead role admirably when Kamara was absent.
Murray's yards per carry has perked right back up to 4.5 along with six visits to the end zone so far this season, marking him as a solid veteran contributor for the Saints in Mark Ingram's former role. Ingram himself makes the list for me as well, with all the focus on phenom Lamar Jackson. Ingram is having a career year with a 5.2 yards per carry average and 12 touchdowns, the third time in four years he has scored in double-digits.
While Jackson leads the Ravens in rushing (and just about every other category), Ingram is 11th among running backs and has the highest rushing average of the Top 20 running backs on that list. It is interesting to note that Ingram and Murray are two of just three rushers in the Top 20 that are over age 27 (Carlos Hyde is third, who also has a case to make this list).
This just goes to show that sometimes running backs do age gracefully, and veterans may know a thing or two about how to both perform and endure in the NFL.