#Trendspotting: Week 16 - Footballguys

Nearing the End

If you're still reading this and playing season-long fantasy football, congratulations on your success. Go get that championship! If you're down to DFS only, hopefully the advice below helps you win some holiday cash. Regardless, as we near the end of the season, I wanted to thank you all for reading. That's especially true to those who have been along for the ride all season.

We'll have one more column next week, but with this being the final week of "traditional" fantasy football, the thank you felt more appropriate here.

Reader's Guide

As you read, you may run into some colors in the text. Blue text is a good matchup for that team's offensive players. Red text is a bad matchup. Some other key items are below:

• All red/blue highlighting in tables is relative to the entire NFL, even when showing only a limited number of teams.
• All reference to fantasy points assumes DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
• All stats reference the full 2018 season unless otherwise specified.

This week, we'll discuss the following topics:

• Strengths vs. Weaknesses
• Looks Can Be Deceiving
• Follow the Targets
• Now #Trending
• Game of the Week

Strengths vs. Weaknesses

Here, we'll look at how teams gain yards vs. how their opposing defense allows yards. The goal is to average the ratios of yardage allowed in order to identify which passing and rushing attacks should fare best this week.

"PaYd%" = the percentage of total yards gained or allowed via passing yardage
"Rank" = where that percentage ranks (1 is highest for offenses to signal the best; 32 is highest for defenses to signal the worst)

Commentary and Action Items

The following facts are quite coincidental:

• Pittsburgh gains 76.9% of its total yardage via the pass, the highest percentage in the NFL.
• New Orleans allows 76.9% of its total yardage via the pass, the highest percentage as well.
• Pittsburgh and New Orleans happen to be playing each other this week.

We'll get into this battle more in the final section of the article.

Atlanta vs. Carolina is notable here. The Falcons won some sharp DFS players some serious money last week because many were against the Atlanta passing game going against Arizona's sad run defense and Patrick Peterson, who was predicted to blanket Julio Jones. This includes our own Steve Buzzard, who won the FanDuel live final. Steve also won a million-dollar first place prize earlier in the season. Way to make FBG proud, Steve!

Once again, Atlanta enters a week with doubts around its passing game (Jones is hurt) and a potentially bad-for-passing game script (Cam Newton won't play for Carolina, who is out of playoff contention). But the passing game is worth a look because passing is what Atlanta does. And with doubt among the receiving group, all signs point to Matt Ryan.

It's worth noting here as well that Ito Smith was placed on Injured Reserve this week, making Tevin Coleman a volume-based RB2 in season-long leagues and even a high-ceiling GPP candidate in the event that Atlanta controls a game that Carolina approaches disappointingly.

"RuYd%" = the percentage of total yards gained or allowed via rushing yardage
"Rank" = where that percentage ranks (1 is highest for offenses to signal the best; 32 is highest for defenses to signal the worst) 

Commentary and Action Items

While Seattle wants to run, banking on them being able to do so for the entire game against a team as skilled as Kansas City is a coin-flip proposition at best. Chris Carson is still worth the play based on volume, though (more on this later).

On the other end of the skill (and motivation) spectrum, Miami faces a Jacksonville team that allows 37.6% of its total yardage via the run, the third-highest percentage in the NFL. Since Miami gains 37.3% of its total yardage via the rush, the sixth-highest percentage, it's worth diagnosing their run game, especially since Jacksonville appears to have mailed in the remainder of their season.

Last week, Frank Gore was injured in the first quarter and was put on I.R. this week. Below is a summary of Miami running back usage in the game:

• Kenyan Drake: 53% of snaps / 1 carry, 6 yards / 3 receptions, 28 yards, 3 targets
• Kalen Ballage: 49% of snaps / 12 carries, 123 yards, 1 touchdown / 1 reception, -2 yards, 1 target

Drake hasn't seen more than eight carries since Week 8 and is averaging 5.5 carries per game since then. And before you think Miami's passing game running back is a valuable role, note that Miami targets its running backs on 21.4% of its total pass attempts, the 13th-highest percentage in the NFL. Miami has targeted its running backs just 87 times on the season, the 12th-fewest in the NFL. Ballage is a DFS GPP candidate and will outscore Drake this week.

[return to top]

Looks Can Be Deceiving

Viewing raw "defense vs. position" stats can be misleading, as it makes no consideration for the strength of opponents. So, in this section, we're going to compare our Normalized Strength of Schedule (NSoS) vs. raw Defense vs. Position (DvP) and find notable deltas between the two. The idea is to find defenses to target that other DFS players might not.

In past weeks, we compared NSoS over the most recent five weeks vs. DvP for the season, but that felt somewhat "apples to oranges." Therefore, this version compares both measures over the past five weeks.

"NSoS" = Normalized Strength of Schedule ranking over the last five weeks
"DvP" = Defense vs. Position (raw fantasy points allowed) ranking over the last five weeks 
"Delta" = Difference between rankings (NSoS minus DvP)

Commentary and Action Items

New England leads the way this week in terms of teams who are misleadingly tough on quarterbacks. And that's not the only reason the arrow is pointing up for Josh Allen.

Rushing fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks often isn't a predictable stat. Some quarterbacks never run, regardless of opposing pass rush or opportunity. Some may often try to run, regardless of those same factors. But the following seemed notable for Allen's prospects this week:

#Patriots have faced the 4th-fewest QB rush attempts (2.7/gm), but allow the most QB rush yds/attempt (6.5).

Haven’t faced many mobile QBs, but their slow defense failed when it did:

Trubisky: 6/81/1
Watson: 8/40
Bortles: 6/35
Mariota: 2/21

Week 16: Josh Allen’s 1st game vs NE

— Pat Thorman (@Pat_Thorman) December 19, 2018

Last week, Allen faced Detroit, who allowed 350+ passing yards but fewer than 20 rushing yards to Cam Newton and Mitchell Trubisky. Their scheme seems to be one that limits rushing opportunities and production to opposing quarterbacks. It worked against Allen, as he rushed for fewer than 20 yards. He did still score a rushing touchdown, though.

This week, Allen gets a team that doesn't allow rushing production by scheme but does by efficiency. And that has been Allen's thing! Buffalo rarely designs runs for him, but he's been the most productive rushing quarterback for the past month (and the most productive fantasy quarterback overall because the rushing cheat code is real). Allen has QB1 upside. Dak Prescott and Tom Brady are cash game alternatives at the same DFS price range, but Allen is the GPP candidate in that range due to his upside and undesirable/non-traditional methods of production.