#Trendspotting: Week 10 - Footballguys

Reader's Guide

As you read, you may run into some colors in the text. Blue text is a good matchup for that team's offensive players. Red text is a bad matchup. Some other key items are below:

• All red/blue highlighting in tables is relative to the entire NFL, even when showing only a limited number of teams.
• All reference to fantasy points assumes DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
• All stats reference the full 2018 season unless otherwise specified.
• All fantasy points rankings in the matchup graphics are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks.

This week, we'll discuss the following topics:

• Follow the Targets
• Playcalling Preferences
• Looks Can Be Deceiving
• Grab Bag
• NEW Feature: Strength vs. Weakness

Follow the Targets

In this section, we'll examine how the worst passing defenses in the NFL allow their production.

Commentary

This week's eight teams were chosen by net passing yards per attempts. Oakland is the worst in that category, but their overall stats against the pass aren't as bad as what we normally see in this section when we sort by yards per game.

Oakland's standing as the worst per-attempt team means they are a defense that can be beaten in any way. Game script will be key with the Chargers this week, as they are a team with plenty of weapons. Some of the other matchups are more obvious to dissect.

• New Orleans has allowed 14 touchdowns to wide receivers and 1.8 per game, both are the most in the NFL.
• Cincinnati allows 75.3 yards per game to tight ends, second-most in the NFL.
• Cincinnati allows 203.3 yards per game to wide receivers, second-most in the NFL.
• Two teams allow more than 200 yards per game to wide receivers - New Orleans and Cincinnati.
• Atlanta allows 9.5 receptions per game to running backs, most in the NFL by far (Indianapolis is second at 7.5 per game).
• Atlanta allows 20.0 receiving fantasy points per game to running backs, most in the NFL.

Action Items

It may be a leap to assume Tyler Boyd can succeed as a WR1, but if there's any week worth taking said leap, this is the one. New Orleans has tried to improve their secondary via trades, but they are still yielding plenty of aerial production. Boyd is a low-end WR1 in season-long leagues and a high-floor DFS play.

Playing Duke Johnson Jr this week may feel like chasing points. But the matchup dictates that even if Johnson had caught zero balls for zero yards last week, he'd still be worth a look. This column has highlighted so many times in the past that Atlanta stinks against pass-catching running backs. Johnson is a player who can take advantage of that. Johnson is an RB2 with RB1 upside this week. The only thing keeping him from being a DFS lock is that he'll be rostered in so many lineups that he may not be worth the DFS GPP selection.

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Playcalling Preferences

In this section, we'll look at how teams call plays. Because game script and red zone can skew pass-to-run ratios, the percentages below only show plays called when the game is within seven points in either direction and plays run between the 20s.

Passing

Commentary

• Cincinnati and Atlanta call pass plays on 66.9% of their neutral script plays, tied for the highest percentage in the NFL.
• Cleveland faces a pass play on 66.2% of its neutral script plays, the second-highest percentage in the NFL.
• Tampa Bay calls a pass play on 66.5% of its neutral script plays, the fourth-highest percentage in the NFL.
• Washington faces a pass play on 63.7% of its neutral script plays, the sixth-highest percentage in the NFL.

Action Items

Cleveland's secondary is an injury-riddled disaster, and Atlanta wants to throw anyway. Fire up Matt Ryan, who has been every bit as good as his MVP season two years ago. The only difference is his team's record. With less expensive options projected for similar (or better) production, Ryan has GPP-winning DFS potential.

Tampa Bay has shown little reluctance to pass, pass, and pass some more. This week's opponent won't make them change their game plan. The only thing limiting Ryan Fitzpatrick's ceiling in this game is Washington's offense not being able to keep up. Still, Fitzpatrick is a top-five season-long option and an attractive DFS cash game option at his price.

Rushing

Commentary

There aren't any action items here, but this table remains to show how important game script can be to fantasy football. All of these offenses, save for Carolina perhaps, would like nothing more than to run the ball. However, their Week 10 opponents -- either because of strengths and weaknesses or projected game script -- likely won't let them.

For Washington, being run-heavy behind a decimated offensive line is sub-optimal anyway. Doing so against a pass funnel defense would be coaching malpractice. Seattle, Buffalo, Tennessee, and Dallas aren't likely to be neutral or ahead for too long.

This doesn't generate any safe plays this week, but it's a reminder that game script counts. Think about how every game will go when making decisions.

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Looks Can Be Deceiving

Viewing raw "defense vs. position" (DvP) stats can be misleading, as it makes no consideration for the strength of opponents. So, in this section, we're going to compare our Normalized Strength of Schedule (NSoS) over the last five weeks vs. raw DvP for the entire season and find notable deltas between the two. The idea is to find defenses to target that other DFS players might not.

For those who have been reading the last two weeks, we called this section "Paper Champions" before. This name seems more appropriate.