Cracking FanDuel: Week 9 - Footballguys

Photo: USA Today Sports

Footballguys has partnered with FanDuel and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games.

My approach to FanDuel's Daily Games

In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches my projections against FanDuel's prices:

Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:

• Everything is sorted by position
• I have converted my projections to FanDuel Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
• The Price column reflects FanDuel's Week 9 Price
• The Ratio column reflects the expected points multiplier (per thousand of salary). The higher the value the better.
• H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches the price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
• ETP = A team's expected points via the Las Vegas spread and under/over totals. The higher the better.
• In the 2017 Cracking FanDuel book, I demonstrated that selecting players who were in the upper half of the Ratio, H-Value, and Expected Team Point indicators at their positions led to the best fantasy success. I call these three factors the Criteria.
• I have highlighted the player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. Most of these players meet the criteria factors. These selections generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow represent other selections that I rate slightly worse than the top plays at their position.

General Thoughts

Situations that stand out to me this week.

• Offensive scoring has been up all season-long and week nine has nine teams that are expected to score 24+ points on the 20-team main slate. Make sure you get your shares of players involved on teams with expected high team totals. Listed by descending expected team points:
  
  
  • Carolina Panthers - 30.50 points (vs TB)
  • Kansas City Chiefs - 30.25 points (at CLE)
  • Los Angeles Rams - 29.75 points (at NO)
  • New Orleans Saints - 27.75 points (vs LAR)
  • Minnesota Vikings - 27.00 points (vs DET)
  • Baltimore Ravens - 25.00 points (vs PIT)
  • Washington Redskins - 24.75 points (vs ATL)
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 24.50 points (at CAR)
  • Seattle Seahawks - 24.25 points (vs LAC)

• Don't overthink Cam Newton ($8,600) against the Buccaneers - Tampa Bay is yielding a league-worst 333 passing yards / 2.9 passing touchdowns to quarterbacks per week in 2018. Add in Cam's usual rushing boxscore and he is set up for a fantastic week. Stacking him with RB Christian McCaffrey ($7,900) gives you an excellent chance to get the touchdowns in this contest while utilizing only two roster spots. TE Greg Olsen ($6,200), WR Devin Funchess ($6,400), and WR D.J. Moore ($5,300) are solid GPP plays as well.
  
  
• The trading deadline created value at wide receiver - The NFL slate following the trading deadline always offers some bargains because players roles have changed. I would advise passing on the players going to new teams as they may play limited snaps without a full understanding of that team's playbook. Golden Tate's departure frees up nearly ten additional targets per game (69 targets in 7 games) for the Lions. WRs Kenny Golladay ($6,200) and Marvin Jones ($6,500) should be the recipients of the increased volume. The departure of WR Demaryius Thomas opens up 7 additional targets per game (56 targets in 8 games). WRs Emmanuel Sanders ($7,100) and Courtland Sutton ($5,500) are the most likely recipients of increased volume.
  
  
• Chicago Bears will be teeing off against Nathan Peterman - For the year, Peterman has completed less than 41% of his throws, given up 4 interceptions while recording just 108 passing yards in 32 pass attempts. Chicago is pricey at $5,400 but should feast against Peterman. For a cheaper option on defense, the Denver Broncos ($3,400) should be able to get after Deshaun Watson. The Broncos are averaging 3 sacks a game while Houston is yielding 3.25 per contest.
  
  
• Kelce is unlike all the other TEs - With Zach Ertz on a bye and Gronkowski not on this slate, Travis Kelce is the only dependable option at the position. I am paying up in cash games and rostering the known production at $7,600. In GPPs, I think Jordan Reed and David Njoku offer enough risk/reward to match their reduced prices.
  
  
• I am unwilling to roster RB Todd Gurley at $11,200 - Regardless to what the value chart tells me, I think spending that much salary on one player severely limits a roster's upside. He has a great situation and could return value, but it won't be on my builds.
  
  
• RB Kareem Hunt ($8,000) is in a dream matchup this week - In two of their last three games, the Browns have been shredded at running back by James Conner (35.70 points in week 8), and Melvin Gordon (34.00 points in week 6). The Chiefs are favored by 8 points and Hunt will be used both as a runner and receiver. He will be in 100% of my cash game builds as 3-4X potential is within grasp.
  
  
• RB Isaiah Crowell ($5,700) is too cheap given his week 9 opportunity. He usually splits carries with Bilal Powell, but Powell was injured last week and is lost for the season. The Dolphins are giving up 28.2 fantasy points to running backs in 2018 and Crowell should be the running back that gets the majority of those snaps this week.

Cash+ Stacks I am targeting (listed highest to lowest cost)

• QB Patrick Mahomes II II / WR Tyreek Hill ($17,300)
• QB Kirk Cousins / WR Adam Thielen ($17,200)
• QB Patrick Mahomes II II / TE Travis Kelce ($17,100)
• QB Cam Newton / WR Devin Funchess ($15,000)
• QB Ryan Fitzpatrick / WR Mike Evans ($15,000)
• QB Cam Newton / TE Greg Olsen ($14,800)
• QB Cam Newton / WR D.J. Moore ($13,900)
• QB Matthew Stafford / WR Marvin Jones Jr($13,800)
• QB Matthew Stafford / WR Kenny Golladay ($13,500)
• QB Cam Newton / WR Curtis Samuel ($13,200)
• QB Ryan Fitzpatrick / WR Chris Godwin ($13,000)

players for GPP differentiation

• QBs: Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford, Alex Smith, Baker Mayfield
• RBs: Isaiah Crowell, Kenyan Drake, Lamar Miller, Alex Collins
• WRs: Julio Jones, Keenan Allen, Juju Smith-Schuster, Jermaine Kearse, John Brown
• TEs: Try Burton, Austin Hooper, Kyle Rudolph, Vance McDonald
• Def: Washington, Miami, Detroit, Seattle

Sample Roster 1 ($60K) - Cash+ (Projected Points = 136.2

• QB Cam Newton, CAR - $8,600
• RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR - $7,900
• RB Kareem Hunt, KC - $8,500
• TE Travis Kelce, KC - $7,600
• WR Courtland Sutton, DEN - $5,500
• WR Kenny Golladay, DET - $6,200
• WR Marvin Jones, DET - $6,500
• Flex RB Isaiah Crowell, NYJ - $5,700
• TD Denver Broncos - $3,400

Sample Roster 2 ($60K) - Cash (Projected Points = 134.9

• QB Cam Newton, CAR - $8,600
• RB Isaiah Crowell, NYJ - $5,700
• RB Kareem Hunt, KC - $8,500
• TE David Njoku, CLE - $5,200
• WR Jarvis Landry, CLE - $6,600
• WR Kenny Golladay, DET - $6,200
• WR Marvin Jones, DET - $6,500
• Flex WR Emmanuel Sanders, DEN - $7,100
• TD Chicago Bears - $5,400