#Trendspotting: Week 16 - Deep in the Woods

The Most Wonderful Time of the Year

Of course, I'm referring not only to the holiday season but to fantasy football championship season. This is the week, if you're still fortunate and skillful enough to be playing in your traditional league, that you cash in on all of your efforts from draft day to now. Ideally, if you're a regular reader here, you're in at least one championship showdown. More ideally, this column helped make you smarter and played a role in getting you there. But whether you're a regular here or a new reader looking for that one great nugget of info to help you make a lineup decision, go with your gut. Take the info you gather here and let it play a role, but ultimately, you know your team. Make your own call. 

Thanks for reading, and thanks for being a Footballguy! Merry Christmas to all.

Graphics Tutorial and Reader’s Guide

I've gotten feedback that my graphics aren't as self-explanatory and intuitive as I think they are, so I provided a guide at the beginning of a past version of this article.

• Green text is a good matchup for that team's offensive players.
• Red text is a bad matchup.
• All reference to fantasy points assumes DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
• All stats reference the full 2017 season unless otherwise specified.

This week, we'll discuss the following topics:

• Follow the Targets
• Funnel Watch
• How Will They Score?
• Styles and Profiles
• New Orleans Saints (vs. Atlanta Falcons)
• Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Oakland Raiders)
• Carolina Panthers (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
• Los Angeles Rams (at Tennessee Titans)
• Dallas Cowboys (vs. Seattle Seahawks)
• Minnesota Vikings (at Green Bay Packers)

Follow the Targets

In this section, we'll look at the worst passing defenses and dissect how they allow their fantasy production. This week, we're looking at the defenses facing the teams projected to score the most passing points this week (see "How Will They Score" section) and how they've allocated their targets, yards, and touchdowns over the course of the whole season.

• We've shown here before that Oakland is bad against quarterbacks;\, but they're not bad against wide receivers. They have to allow passing production somewhere. That "somewhere" is to tight ends, where the Raiders are worst in the league in yards allowed. As though you need to be told, Zach Ertz is a must-start this week in traditional leagues. He's GPP worthy, even in two-game slates where contrarianism can help.
• Similar to Oakland, Miami is bad against the pass but not horrible against wide receivers. A positive game script should help Kareem Hunt as well, but the resurgence he showed last week in his passing game usage also suggests big things could come again this week.
• The way Tampa Bay allows passing production would point to Devin Funchess being a stronger play than Greg Olsen this week. Both are strong, but if you can't decide, just use the guy throwing them the ball. Cam Newton is the top cash game play of the week.

Funnel Watch

A "funnel" defense is one with a stout run defense but a suspect (or worse) pass defense. These units "funnel" production to the exterior and deep parts of the field (places where passing games focus) and away from the short middle (where the running game typically occurs).

• Pittsburgh will be without Antonio Brown, but their passing game is still one to use. JuJu Smith-Schuster should see at least eight targets as the more trusted option compared to Martavis Bryant. LeVeon Bell should also see an uptick in targets.
• "Non-elite" quarterbacks such as Case Keenum and Nick Foles should continue to surprise anyone who doesn't read this column or think that opposition matchups correlate to fantasy quarterback production.

"Runnel" Defense

Sometimes, the funnel effect can happen in reverse, where a team is very good against the pass but poor against the run (hence, "runnel" defense)

• It's a shame Detroit can't run the ball well, or else they'd be in a great spot against a team that is poor vs. the run and appears to have given up on their season. Regardless, Theo Riddick is a cash game option at his price, given his recent usage since the team officially soured on Ameer Abdullah.
• Virtually the only chance Tennessee has to keep this game close is to be efficient in the run game vs. the L.A. Rams. The Rams, however, should be productive enough in the passing game to deny that opportunity.
• Seattle hasn't been good vs. the run, and Ezekiel Elliott (plus his fresh legs) are coming back. #ZekeWeek, anyone?

How Will They Score?

I have a confession. What you're about to see and read is not my idea. This is a concept created by Ben Gretch at Rotoviz and now published on FantasyLabs. However, it's one I wanted to share as it is an interesting way to think about how teams score and allow points and can lead to some surprise/contrarian lineup decisions. For some background, check the intro to Ben's Week 1 column from earlier this year, or get a bullet-point summary below.

• Take each team's implied Vegas team total
• Average the percentage of points that team scores via passing touchdowns and the percentage their opponent allows via passing touchdowns
• Multiply that average percentage by the implied total
• Do the same for rushing touchdowns
• Passing + Rushing won't add up to the total. There are kicking and defense/specials teams points as well. However, those aren't as predictable, so we're focusing on offense only.

You'll get the hang of it with the help of the charts and some examples.

Passing Points