#Trendspotting: Week 12 - It's Finally Happening

Photo: USA Today Sports

Graphics Tutorial

I've gotten feedback that my graphics aren't as self-explanatory and intuitive as I think they are, so I provided a guide at the beginning of a past version of this article.

Reader's Guide

• Green text is a good matchup for that team's offensive players.
• Red text is a bad matchup.
• All reference to fantasy points assumes DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
• All stats reference the full 2017 season unless otherwise specified.
• All fantasy points rankings in the matchup graphics are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks.

This week, because it's Thanksgiving and your reading time is likely limited, we're going to keep the team sections short and stick to the commentary sections only. The "What's New" and "The Weakest Links" section will give some good nuggets, as usual, so be sure to check those out.

Below, we'll discuss the following topics. Happy Thanksgiving!

• Keep Your Eye on the Targets
• Funnel Watch
• What's New?
• The Weakest Links
• Atlanta Falcons (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
• Los Angeles Rams (vs. New Orleans Saints)
• Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Buffalo Bills)
• New Orleans (at Los Angeles Rams)
• Seattle Seahawks (at San Francisco 49ers)
• Tennessee Titans (at Indianapolis Colts)

Keep Your Eye on the Targets

The table below looks at the bottom eight (8) pass defenses in terms of yards allowed per game and shows how those defenses allow targets, yards, and touchdowns. The teams are listed from most yards per game to least. Here are some quick notes on how to decipher the chart:

• Tampa Bay allows 62.9% of their targets to wide receivers, and they're tied for last in the NFL with New England in yards per game yielded to wide receivers
• They've surrendered 12 touchdowns to wideouts.
• The New York Giants have yielded nine (9) touchdowns to tight ends.
• Houston allows 25.6% of its total targets and the sixth-most (i.e. 27th-ranked) yards per game to tight ends.

Action(able) Items

• New England has gotten better after their dreadful start. They're not the worst pass defense in the league at this point in time.
• Tampa Bay's coverage against wide receivers, however, started bad and has stayed bad. More on this later.
• Oakland allows their yardage to every position. They are bad everywhere.

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Funnel Watch

A "funnel" defense is one with a stout run defense but a suspect (or worse) pass defense. These units "funnel" production to the exterior and deep parts of the field (places where passing games focus) and away from the short middle (where the running game typically occurs).

Action(able) Items

• Funnel defenses can either be so hard to run against that teams don't try, or they can be so easy to pass against that teams don't bother trying to run. Tampa Bay falls into the latter, and their middling yards-per-rush numbers confirm that. Matt Ryan should have a field day.
• Seeing a team who employs Patrick Peterson on this list is surprising (even though we see Arizona's results every week). Non-WR1s against the Cardinals have been doing whatever they want all season long. DeDe Westbrook is an interesting desperation play in traditional leagues and GPP dart-throw in DFS.

"Runnel" Defense

Sometimes, the funnel effect can happen in reverse, where a team is very good against the pass but poor against the run (hence, "runnel" defense).

Action(able) Items

• New Orleans and Los Angeles (Rams) are two of the most surprising teams in the NFL this season -- not just because they're having success, but because of how they're having success. The Saints are an outstanding rushing team. Despite being on the road in a potential shootout, Mark Ingram is still the preferred play to Alvin Kamara.
• Atlanta's presence on this list (and the ball-control gameplan it should inspire) is the only chance Tampa Bay can give itself of not getting run out of the building on Sunday by the Atlanta passing game.

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What's New?

Last week, we discussed Houston vs. wide receivers. If receivers are having success...

They're Bad Against Quarterbacks Too

Here are the last four weeks of quarterback finishes against Houston:

• Week 11: QB6
• Week 10: QB3
• Week 9: QB8
• Week 8: QB1

That's pretty bad. It's made worse when you find out those quarterbacks were Blaine Gabbert, Jared Goff, Jacoby Brissett, and Russell Wilson. Houston has allowed 12 passing touchdowns in those four games and 16 in its last six games (that includes a game against Kevin Hogan). Against non-Hogan opponents, Houston is allowing an average of three touchdowns passes per game over its last five.