Welcome back to our FantasyAces feature article, wherein we identify value plays in both cash games and tournaments. The process we use starts with the statistical method described here, which results in a percentage that represents the likelihood a given player will achieve value based on his salary, his projection, and historical variation in scoring at his position. From there, we take a look at statistics related to his individual matchup, as well as any other situational factors that might affect his value likelihood (e.g., injuries, coaching tendencies, game scripts, ownership rates, etc.). This combination of stats and context allows us to narrow things down to a select group of players worth fully recommending.
Note: The value probability tables will be published on Thursday. Commentary based on the situational factors described above will be added on Friday.
QUARTERBACKS
Below are the quarterbacks with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:
| MOST LIKELY TO ACHIEVE VALUE | |||||||||
| NAME | TM | SALARY | AVG | P(CASH) | NAME | TM | SALARY | MAX | P(GPP) |
| Andrew Luck | IND | 7250 | 23.2 | 59.8% | Robert Griffin III III | CLE | 5100 | 17.6 | 31.4% |
| Blake Bortles | JAX | 5300 | 17.3 | 59.2% | Blake Bortles | JAX | 5300 | 18.4 | 31.4% |
| Sam Bradford | MIN | 5200 | 16.8 | 57.9% | Tom Savage | HOU | 4900 | 16.3 | 28.4% |
| Matt Ryan | ATL | 7200 | 22.6 | 56.5% | Matt Ryan | ATL | 7200 | 24.9 | 25.0% |
| Tom Brady | NE | 7150 | 22.3 | 55.9% | Sam Bradford | MIN | 5200 | 16.9 | 25.0% |
| Robert Griffin III III | CLE | 5100 | 15.9 | 54.3% | Andy Dalton | CIN | 6100 | 20.3 | 23.9% |
| Drew Brees | NO | 7650 | 23.5 | 53.9% | Tom Brady | NE | 7150 | 24.3 | 22.9% |
| LEAST LIKELY TO ACHIEVE VALUE | |||||||||
| NAME | TM | SALARY | AVG | P(CASH) | NAME | TM | SALARY | MAX | P(GPP) |
| Carson Palmer | ARI | 6350 | 16.1 | 30.4% | Carson Palmer | ARI | 6350 | 17.3 | 8.1% |
| Bryce Petty | NYJ | 5000 | 13.3 | 38.6% | Aaron Rodgers | GB | 7400 | 22.9 | 12.3% |
| Tyrod Taylor | BUF | 6300 | 17.3 | 38.8% | Kirk Cousins | WAS | 6900 | 20.9 | 12.3% |
| Jared Goff | LA | 5100 | 14.2 | 42.6% | Philip Rivers | SD | 6800 | 20.7 | 13.1% |
| Colin Kaepernick | SF | 6200 | 17.8 | 44.1% | Drew Brees | NO | 7650 | 24.2 | 13.4% |
| Philip Rivers | SD | 6800 | 19.8 | 45.7% | Marcus Mariota | TEN | 6400 | 19.2 | 13.4% |
| Marcus Mariota | TEN | 6400 | 18.6 | 46.0% | Tyrod Taylor | BUF | 6300 | 18.8 | 13.4% |
As the only quarterback in the top half of the table with a Top 8 matchup in all three stat categories I look at, Tom Brady is the clear "value" play this week. Brady will be facing a Jets defense that's allowed the seventh-most FantasyAces points to opposing quarterbacks, ranks 26th in overall defensive efficiency, and ranks 32nd against the pass (per DVOA). Two other things working in his favor are a) his modest projected ownership rate of only around 10 percent and b) the relatively mild weather forecast for Foxboro on Saturday.
Amazingly, only one other high-value quarterback faces a defense ranked in the Bottom 8 of even one stat category. That player is Blake Bortles, who will be facing a Titans defense that's allowed the sixth-most points to opposing quarterbacks. Bortles' projected ownership rate is around 15 percent, so he's a viable option in both formats.
Running Backs
Below are the running backs with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:
| MOST LIKELY TO ACHIEVE VALUE | |||||||||
| NAME | TM | SALARY | AVG | P(CASH) | NAME | TM | SALARY | MAX | P(GPP) |
| Jordan Howard | CHI | 5100 | 16.9 | 56.5% | LeSean McCoy | BUF | 5900 | 20.3 | 40.0% |
| LeSean McCoy | BUF | 5900 | 18.6 | 53.4% | Jordan Howard | CHI | 5100 | 17.2 | 38.7% |
| Bilal Powell | NYJ | 4800 | 14.9 | 52.4% | Bilal Powell | NYJ | 4800 | 15.8 | 37.1% |
| Todd Gurley | LA | 4900 | 14.8 | 50.4% | David Johnson | ARI | 6600 | 20.6 | 33.8% |
| David Johnson | ARI | 6600 | 19.9 | 50.2% | Todd Gurley | LA | 4900 | 15.0 | 32.6% |
| Carlos Hyde | SF | 4900 | 14.0 | 46.5% | Carlos Hyde | SF | 4900 | 14.7 | 31.4% |
| DeMarco Murray | TEN | 5600 | 15.8 | 45.7% | Kenneth Farrow | SD | 4800 | 14.1 | 30.1% |
| Jay Ajayi | MIA | 4850 | 13.6 | 45.6% | Jay Ajayi | MIA | 4850 | 14.2 | 29.9% |
| Ty Montgomery | GB | 4850 | 13.1 | 42.9% | DeMarco Murray | TEN | 5600 | 16.3 | 29.6% |
| Jeremy Hill | CIN | 5000 | 13.5 | 42.9% | Latavius Murray | OAK | 5150 | 14.8 | 28.8% |
| LEAST LIKELY TO ACHIEVE VALUE | |||||||||
| NAME | TM | SALARY | AVG | P(CASH) | NAME | TM | SALARY | MAX | P(GPP) |
| Adrian Peterson | MIN | 4950 | 5.9 | 5.8% | Mike Gillislee | BUF | 4000 | 5.5 | 3.6% |
| Charles Sims | TB | 4100 | 5.2 | 7.1% | Chris Ivory | JAX | 4200 | 6.8 | 6.3% |
| Mike Gillislee | BUF | 4000 | 5.1 | 7.4% | Travaris Cadet | NO | 3500 | 5.7 | 6.5% |
| Ronnie Hillman | SD | 4350 | 5.8 | 8.4% | Chris Thompson | WAS | 4000 | 6.6 | 6.7% |
| Travaris Cadet | NO | 3500 | 4.7 | 8.5% | Robert Turbin | IND | 3500 | 6.0 | 7.6% |
| Alfred Blue | HOU | 3900 | 5.8 | 11.8% | Ronnie Hillman | SD | 4350 | 7.5 | 7.8% |
| Chris Thompson | WAS | 4000 | 6.0 | 12.3% | James White | NE | 4000 | 7.0 | 8.1% |
| Chris Ivory | JAX | 4200 | 6.5 | 13.0% | Adrian Peterson | MIN | 4950 | 8.7 | 8.3% |
| Robert Turbin | IND | 3500 | 5.7 | 14.8% | Duke Johnson Jr | CLE | 4300 | 7.7 | 8.7% |
| Duke Johnson Jr | CLE | 4300 | 7.0 | 15.3% | Alfred Blue | HOU | 3900 | 7.1 | 9.2% |
There are five different running backs with high value probabilities and highly favorable matchups, so let's start with cash game-only options. Todd Gurley has the best matchup of the week, going up against a 49ers defense that's allowed the most FantasyAces points to opposing running backs, ranks 30th in run defense efficiency (per DVOA), and ranks 24th in pass defense efficiency on running back targets. Meanwhile, Jordan Howard will be facing a Redskins defense that's allowed the fourth-most points to opposing running backs and ranks 26th in run defense efficiency. Unfortunately, Howard has the highest projected ownership rate of the week (around 45 percent) and Gurley's is third-highest (around 35 percent).
Luckily, if we pivot away from this duo, we can replace them with perfectly viable tournament-only duo: Kenneth Farrow and Latavius Murray. Farrow's up against a Browns defense that's allowed the second-most FantasyAces points to opposing running backs and is actually beating out the historically bad 49ers for dead last in run defense efficiency. (They also rank 20th in pass defense efficiency on running back targets.) As for Murray, he'll be facing a Colts defense that's ranked 29th in run defense efficiency and 31st in pass defense efficiency on running back targets. (They also rank 22nd in points allowed to running backs.) With respect to projected ownership rates, Murray's ranks eighth among running backs (around 15 percent), while Farrow's ranks 14th (around 5 percent).
That's four of the five running backs I alluded to earlier, so who's the fifth? That would be Jay Ajayi, who's a viable value option in both fomats. Against the Bills, Ajayi will be up against a defense that's allowed the eighth-most points to opposing running backs and ranks 31st in efficiency against the run. To boot, this game will be played at near-freezing temperatures with wind in the 10-to-15 mile per four range, which favors a more run-heavy game plan. And finally, Ajayi's projected ownership rate ranks ninth at around 10 percent.
Wide Receivers
Below are the wide receivers with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:
| MOST LIKELY TO ACHIEVE VALUE | |||||||||
| NAME | TM | SALARY | AVG | P(CASH) | NAME | TM | SALARY | MAX | P(GPP) |
| Michael Crabtree | OAK | 4850 | 14.0 | 47.3% | Tyler Lockett | SEA | 4100 | 12.5 | 32.4% |
| Jordy Nelson | GB | 5750 | 16.3 | 46.0% | Michael Crabtree | OAK | 4850 | 14.5 | 31.2% |
| T.Y. Hilton | IND | 5600 | 15.4 | 44.0% | DeSean Jackson | WAS | 4400 | 13.1 | 30.9% |
| Julian Edelman | NE | 4900 | 13.2 | 42.9% | Jordy Nelson | GB | 5750 | 16.9 | 30.2% |
| Larry Fitzgerald | ARI | 4750 | 12.8 | 42.6% | Larry Fitzgerald | ARI | 4750 | 13.9 | 29.9% |
| Mike Evans | TB | 5800 | 15.6 | 42.5% | T.Y. Hilton | IND | 5600 | 16.3 | 29.6% |
| Robby Anderson | NYJ | 4250 | 11.2 | 41.5% | Mike Evans | TB | 5800 | 16.7 | 29.0% |
| DeSean Jackson | WAS | 4400 | 11.6 | 41.1% | Corey Coleman | CLE | 3900 | 11.2 | 28.8% |
| Brandin Cooks | NO | 5400 | 14.1 | 40.7% | Robby Anderson | NYJ | 4250 | 12.2 | 28.8% |
| Doug Baldwin | SEA | 4800 | 12.3 | 39.5% | Doug Baldwin | SEA | 4800 | 13.5 | 27.6% |
| Tyrell Williams | SD | 4650 | 11.7 | 38.5% | Alshon Jeffery | CHI | 4700 | 13.2 | 27.6% |
| Willie Snead | NO | 4700 | 11.8 | 38.3% | Ted Ginn Jr | CAR | 4000 | 11.2 | 27.4% |
| Tyler Lockett | SEA | 4100 | 10.2 | 37.8% | A.J. Green | CIN | 5700 | 15.8 | 26.8% |
| Ted Ginn Jr | CAR | 4000 | 9.9 | 37.4% | Julian Edelman | NE | 4900 | 13.5 | 26.5% |
| Pierre Garcon | WAS | 4400 | 10.9 | 37.3% | Tyrell Williams | SD | 4650 | 12.7 | 26.0% |
| LEAST LIKELY TO ACHIEVE VALUE | |||||||||
| NAME | TM | SALARY | AVG | P(CASH) | NAME | TM | SALARY | MAX | P(GPP) |
| Tyler Boyd | CIN | 4350 | 6.5 | 12.0% | Tyler Boyd | CIN | 4350 | 7.2 | 6.8% |
| Travis Benjamin | SD | 4300 | 6.6 | 13.1% | Brandon LaFell | CIN | 4500 | 7.7 | 7.6% |
| John Brown | ARI | 4200 | 6.5 | 13.2% | Quincy Enunwa | NYJ | 4550 | 8.2 | 8.9% |
| Brandon LaFell | CIN | 4500 | 7.3 | 14.8% | Kelvin Benjamin | CAR | 4550 | 8.3 | 9.3% |
| Brandon Marshall | NYJ | 4600 | 7.7 | 16.0% | Brandon Marshall | NYJ | 4600 | 8.5 | 9.6% |
| Adam Thielen | MIN | 4400 | 7.4 | 16.2% | Travis Benjamin | SD | 4300 | 8.0 | 9.8% |
| Quincy Enunwa | NYJ | 4550 | 7.6 | 16.3% | Adam Humphries | TB | 4000 | 7.6 | 10.5% |
| DeVante Parker | MIA | 4200 | 7.1 | 16.8% | Deonte Thompson | CHI | 3700 | 7.1 | 10.8% |
| Mohamed Sanu | ATL | 4250 | 7.2 | 16.9% | Kenny Stills | MIA | 4150 | 8.0 | 10.9% |
| Donte Moncrief | IND | 4400 | 7.6 | 17.7% | Tavon Austin | LA | 4200 | 8.1 | 10.9% |
| Kelvin Benjamin | CAR | 4550 | 7.9 | 18.0% | DeVante Parker | MIA | 4200 | 8.3 | 11.7% |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | MIN | 3800 | 6.8 | 18.9% | Will Fuller | HOU | 4200 | 8.4 | 12.1% |
| Will Fuller | HOU | 4200 | 7.6 | 19.4% | Jeremy Kerley | SF | 3900 | 8.1 | 13.5% |
| Deonte Thompson | CHI | 3700 | 6.7 | 19.5% | J.J. Nelson | ARI | 4350 | 9.8 | 16.7% |
| J.J. Nelson | ARI | 4350 | 8.2 | 21.4% | Sammy Watkins | BUF | 4600 | 10.5 | 17.2% |
Almost the entire top half of the table in both formats has a favorable matchup in at least one of the stat categories I use, so I'm going to do everyone a favor and quickly list the handful of high-value wide receivers that don't qualify: Jordy Nelson, T.Y. Hilton, Larry Fitzgerald, Brandin Cooks, Willie Snead, Corey Coleman, and A.J. Green. Hilton is especially important to mention for tournaments because, in addition to a not-particularly-favorable matchup, he's at the top of the charts this week when it comes to projected ownership rates.
Among the 10 high-value receivers in the table that I didn't mention above, only 1 has a favorable matchup in both stat categories: Ted Ginn Jr. Against the Falcons, he'll be facing a pass defense that ranks 26th in efficiency (per DVOA) and has allowed the 11th-most FantasyAces points to opposing wide receivers. (Note: 11th ranks outside my typical Bottom 8, but it actually qualifies because three defenses worse than them -- Philadelphia, Kansas City, and Dallas -- aren't available to exploit in the Saturday-only main slate.) With respect to tournament viability, there's no worry as Ginn's projected ownership rate ranks seventh at around 10 percent.
Tight Ends
Below are the tight ends with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:
| MOST LIKELY TO ACHIEVE VALUE | |||||||||
| NAME | TM | SALARY | AVG | P(CASH) | NAME | TM | SALARY | MAX | P(GPP) |
| Greg Olsen | CAR | 4550 | 11.7 | 36.3% | Greg Olsen | CAR | 4550 | 12.4 | 18.8% |
| Cameron Brate | TB | 4600 | 11.0 | 30.0% | Levine Toilolo | ATL | 3000 | 7.7 | 15.3% |
| Kyle Rudolph | MIN | 4700 | 10.6 | 25.2% | Cameron Brate | TB | 4600 | 11.3 | 13.0% |
| Jimmy Graham | SEA | 4800 | 10.1 | 20.8% | Kyle Rudolph | MIN | 4700 | 11.5 | 12.8% |
| Delanie Walker | TEN | 4700 | 9.8 | 20.2% | Martellus Bennett | NE | 4550 | 11.0 | 12.3% |
| LEAST LIKELY TO ACHIEVE VALUE | |||||||||
| NAME | TM | SALARY | AVG | P(CASH) | NAME | TM | SALARY | MAX | P(GPP) |
| Dwayne Allen | IND | 3900 | 5.3 | 3.3% | Jordan Reed | WAS | 5100 | 6.7 | 0.5% |
| Dion Sims | MIA | 3900 | 5.8 | 5.2% | Hunter Henry | SD | 4250 | 7.0 | 2.0% |
| Hunter Henry | SD | 4250 | 6.4 | 5.6% | Jermaine Gresham | ARI | 3900 | 6.7 | 2.6% |
| C.J. Fiedorowicz | HOU | 3800 | 5.9 | 6.6% | Coby Fleener | NO | 3900 | 6.9 | 3.0% |
| Jermaine Gresham | ARI | 3900 | 6.1 | 6.6% | Jack Doyle | IND | 4000 | 7.2 | 3.3% |
In cash games, you have two prime value options this week: Greg Olsen and Cameron Brate. Regarding Olsen, he'll be facing a Falcons pass defense that allows the sixth-most FantasyAces points to opposing tight ends and ranks 26th in DVOA. (They also rank 20th in DVOA on tight end targets.) Regarding Brate, the Saints pass defense ranks 28th in overall efficiency and 25th in efficiency on tight end targets. Furthermore, it's worth noting that weather will not play a factor in either Charlotte or Tampa, which does play a factor in the two games ranking in the Top 3 this week with respect to the Vegas over-under.
Unfortunately, Olsen and Brate are projected to have the highest two ownership rates of the week, so it's advisable to pivot away from them in tournaments or use your other lineup spots to find value. The best alternative from a matchup perspective is Martellus Bennett, who'll be facing a Jets pass defense allowing the ninth-most points to opposing tight ends and ranks 32nd in efficiency. It also helps that his projected ownership rate (around 1 percent) is among the lowest of the week at tight end.
Defenses
Below are the defenses with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:
| MOST LIKELY TO ACHIEVE VALUE | |||||||||
| NAME | TM | SALARY | AVG | P(CASH) | NAME | TM | SALARY | MAX | P(GPP) |
| New England Patriots | NE | 3400 | 14.2 | 79.5% | New England Patriots | NE | 3400 | 14.5 | 57.4% |
| Seattle Seahawks | SEA | 3000 | 11.9 | 72.1% | Seattle Seahawks | SEA | 3000 | 12.0 | 50.0% |
| Green Bay Packers | GB | 2700 | 10.6 | 69.3% | Green Bay Packers | GB | 2700 | 10.6 | 48.4% |
| San Diego Chargers | SD | 3000 | 11.1 | 66.3% | San Francisco 49ers | SF | 2500 | 9.5 | 45.9% |
| San Francisco 49ers | SF | 2500 | 9.5 | 65.6% | San Diego Chargers | SD | 3000 | 11.1 | 42.6% |
| LEAST LIKELY TO ACHIEVE VALUE | |||||||||
| NAME | TM | SALARY | AVG | P(CASH) | NAME | TM | SALARY | MAX | P(GPP) |
| Arizona Cardinals | ARI | 2900 | 7.3 | 38.6% | Arizona Cardinals | ARI | 2900 | 7.3 | 18.8% |
| Atlanta Falcons | ATL | 2850 | 7.6 | 41.8% | Atlanta Falcons | ATL | 2850 | 7.6 | 21.7% |
| Minnesota Vikings | MIN | 2800 | 7.4 | 41.8% | Miami Dolphins | MIA | 2850 | 7.7 | 22.3% |
| Miami Dolphins | MIA | 2850 | 7.7 | 42.6% | Minnesota Vikings | MIN | 2800 | 7.5 | 22.3% |
| Chicago Bears | CHI | 2500 | 7.0 | 45.4% | Chicago Bears | CHI | 2500 | 7.3 | 28.9% |
As always, there's value everywhere at defense. What makes this week different, however, is that the five most valuable defenses also have favorable matchups:
- New England -- The Jets allow the second-most FantasyAces points to opposing defenses and rank 30th in offensive efficiency.
- Seattle -- The Cardinals allow the fourth-most points to opposing defenses and rank 24th in offensive efficiency.
- San Diego -- The Browns allow the fifth-most points to opposing defenses and rank 29th in offensive efficiency.
- San Francisco -- The Rams allow the third-most points to opposing defenses and rank 32nd in offensive efficiency
- Green Bay -- The Vikings rank 27th in offensive efficiency.
