NOTE: The pro projections below are first posted on Thursday, then updated on Saturday afternoon. On Thursday, commentary will be limited to early impressions. A more-detailed discussion of specific players will be added on Saturday afternoon.
Welcome back for Week 16 of Footballguys' new feature that uses a statistical model to project the roster percentages of "professional" tournament players on Draftkings. If you're curious about the full methodological details of the model, click here. The most important detail to keep in mind, however, is that the "professionals" in question were identified using a clustering algorithm and can be characterized by the following statement: Compared to the rest of the population, these 205 pros play more, they win more, and they do both consistently.
Quarterbacks
Below is the table for quarterbacks. In this and all subsequent tables, "Overall" is Steve Buzzard's projection of roster percentage. "Pros" is the model's projection of roster percentage for Draftkings pros only.
| Quarterback | Team | Salary | Overall | Pros |
| Patrick Mahomes II II | KC | 7100 | 21.7% | 24.4% |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | 6300 | 10.4% | 8.9% |
| Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 7000 | 12.3% | 8.5% |
| Jared Goff | LAR | 6200 | 7.3% | 5.7% |
| Matt Ryan | ATL | 6300 | 5.7% | 4.5% |
| Deshaun Watson | HOU | 6600 | 4.2% | 3.8% |
| Josh Allen | BUF | 6000 | 4.0% | 3.7% |
| Jameis Winston | TB | 6100 | 3.0% | 3.6% |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | 5600 | 3.6% | 3.6% |
| Nick Foles | PHI | 5900 | 4.3% | 3.2% |
| Sam Darnold | NYJ | 5200 | 2.9% | 2.9% |
| Tom Brady | NE | 6000 | 2.9% | 2.9% |
| Kyle Allen | CAR | 4000 | 2.4% | 2.8% |
| Eli Manning | NYG | 4900 | 1.6% | 2.6% |
| Philip Rivers | LAC | 6400 | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | 5500 | 1.9% | 2.5% |
| Case Keenum | DEN | 4800 | 0.9% | 2.4% |
| Teddy Bridgewater | NO | 5300 | 3.1% | 2.4% |
| Derek Carr | OAK | 5100 | 1.0% | 2.2% |
| Baker Mayfield | CLE | 5300 | 0.7% | 2.0% |
| Josh Johnson | WAS | 4800 | 1.1% | 2.0% |
| Blake Bortles | JAX | 4400 | 2.1% | 1.9% |
Early Impressions
Despite the largest Sunday Main slate of the season offering over 20 viable options at quarterback, Patrick Mahomes II is far-and-away the chalk this week -- and for good reason. As of Thursday, he has the second-highest probability of achieving 4x value (37.8%) and the fifth-highest aggregate projected rostership for his wide receiver corps (22.9%). He also will be facing a Raiders defense that's projected to appear in less than one percent of tournament lineups.
SATURDAY UPDATE: He's still at 37.8%, but Mahomes has now leapfrogged Lamar Jackson for first place among quarterbacks with respect to 4x value probability. The gap between his overall and pro projections has only increased by 0.1%, however, because aggregate projected rostership for Chiefs wide receivers has dropped to 21.7%.
Aaron Rodgers ($6,300, 10.4% Overall Roster Percentage, 8.9% Pro Roster Percentage)
Other than the effect of scaling these projections to add up to 100 percent, it's a mystery as to why Rodgers' pro projection is below his overall projection since everything seems to point in a positive direction. At 33.5%, he ranks third behind Mahomes and Jackson in 4x value probability. At 28.1%, his wide receiver corps has the highest aggregate rostership projection. Detroit's defense is expected to appear in less than one percent of lineups. And finally, Rodgers' offensive line has the best pass protection matchup on the Sunday Main slate according to Pro Football Focus.
It's also worth noting that, despite Green Bay having the sixth-highest implied team total of Week 17, Rodgers' salary on Draftkings didn't budge from Week 16.
Running Backs
Below is the table for running backs:
| Running Back | Team | Salary | Overall | Pros |
| Saquon Barkley | NYG | 8200 | 31.7% | 35.3% |
| Jamaal Williams | GB | 6000 | 26.8% | 27.6% |
| C.J. Anderson | LAR | 5400 | 24.4% | 21.2% |
| Dwayne Washington | NO | 3000 | 19.5% | 20.7% |
| Royce Freeman | DEN | 3500 | 15.8% | 16.6% |
| Peyton Barber | TB | 3600 | 15.7% | 14.6% |
| Jeff Wilson | SF | 4400 | 11.5% | 9.0% |
| Elijah McGuire | NYJ | 5300 | 9.0% | 6.9% |
| James Conner | PIT | 7500 | 11.3% | 5.8% |
| T.J. Yeldon | JAX | 3500 | 5.6% | 5.8% |
| Kenyan Drake | MIA | 3700 | 4.5% | Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports
Tags
Daily FF
DraftKings
Projections
Stats
Davante Adams
Robbie Chosen
Saquon Barkley
Devontae Booker
Eric Ebron
Royce Freeman
DeAndre Hopkins
Lamar Jackson
Josh Johnson
Travis Kelce
Patrick Mahomes II
Dak Prescott
Aaron Rodgers
Cooper Rush
Jamaal Williams
Jameis Winston
just now
|