The Rundown: FantasyScore Week 10

Photo: USA Today Sports

The combination of recent injuries that haven't been priced into the system and an average over/under of 45.9 -- the second-highest of 2015 -- means that there's a ton of value to be had in Week 10. The key, as always, is to identify the players that are most likely (or least likely) to achieve value. Once again in this space, I'm going to present and discuss value probabilities I've calculated via a system I introduced in Week 8. (Click that link if you want to read more about the details.)

So let's get to it.

quarterbacks

Below are the quarterbacks with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

Cousins is far and away the best value this week. His opponent, the New Orleans Saints, have given up over 300 yards passing in six of their nine games, including three straight coming into the Washington game. Marcus Mariota (Week 9), Eli Manning (Week 8), and Andrew Luck (Week 7) all posted season-high scoring totals against this pass defense. Cousins isn't on par with those three in terms of talent, but he's still good enough to score the 14.7 points in cash games or 19.6 in GPPs that are required to achieve value.

Meanwhile, Palmer is the quarterback to avoid. The Seahawks last two opponents have failed to crack 100 net passing yards. And although Palmer's significantly more talented than Colin Kaepernick and Matt Cassel, John Brown is questionable with a hamstring injury, and the game is at CenturyLink Field, a venue where opposing quarterbacks don't perform well historically. 

running backs

Below are the running backs with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

On both sides of the ledger, the main story is a clear suggestion for which Washington running back you should opt for this week -- that is, if you're the brave soul contemplating the contrarian use of a Washington running back.

Otherwise, the best value play for my money is Marcel Reece. According to Football Outsiders, the Vikings pass defense ranks 25th against opposing running backs, and Latavius Murray, although listed as probable, is nevertheless coming off of a concussion. Therefore, it's reasonable to assume that Oakland's coaching staff may be inclined to limit Murray's touches if at all possible. And that benefits Reece, among others.

wide receivers

Below are the wide receivers with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

Among wide receivers most likely to achieve value, it appears as if Ravens-Jaguars is the game to target. After a 5-54-1 stat line last week, Walters has shown he can produce when the two receivers ahead of him on the depth chart, Allen Hurns and Marqise Lee, are out with injury. And this week, both are listed as questionable. Chris Givens, on the other hand, is more a leap of faith when it comes to his scoring ability when taking over for a fallen comrade. That said, at $2,000, all he needs to post is a 4-40-0 stat line to achieve value in both cash games and GPPs.

Larry Fitzgerald's has a high salary, is nursing an ankle injury, and will feel the same effects of playing the Seahawks in Seattle as his quarterback. Per Pro Football Focus, it's unlikely that Fitzgerald will be shadowed by Richard Sherman, but Footballguys is still calling this one a tough matchup.

tight ends

Below are the tight ends with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

Tye shows up as offering supreme value once again this week, but Gillmore's the better play because of his matchup. According to Football Outsiders, Jacksonville ranks 29th in pass defense efficiency against opposing tight ends, while New England ranks 5th.

Meanwhile, the value math agrees that Barnidge, Kelce, and Eifert are likely to be unnecessary drains on your salary cap should you choose to roster them.

defenses

Below are the defenses with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

Personally, I have the Steelers everywhere, typically stacked with DeAngelo Williams. Among the other two high-value defenses, Tampa Bay is a better option than Oakland. As we saw last week (and the week before) with the Saints, just because a bad defense represents good value given their matchup doesn't mean they're worth including in your lineup. In short, Oakland, like the Saints before them, is priced this low for a reason! The Buccaneers, on the other hand, rank 9th in FantasyScore points despite having only played eight games, and so their positive matchup against Dallas represents a true bargain, not a mirage.

week 10 draft lists

Finally, to supplement the statistics-based strategies I recommended earlier in the season, here are the VBD draft lists you should use for FantasyScore's Draft-N-Go (DNG) games:

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