In many ways, a fantasy football draft is an efficient market. The earliest-drafted players at each position will, on average, be the best players at that position. In competitive leagues, it's impossible to be strong at every position. But I'm going to advocate a strategy that will leave you strong in most places and weak at RB2.... on paper. The beauty behind this strategy is that you should be able to get "just enough" production out of your RB2 slot to not give back most of your gains at other positions.
After three rounds, you might have a star running back, a star wide receiver, and a star tight end. Or perhaps you were able to snag two elite wide receivers and a running back. In round four, many folks would start looking at running back. But a better strategy would be to hold off on your RB2 spot, and draft another wide receiver or two (depending on how many players you start in your league) and perhaps a quarterback. Because if you're strong everywhere else, you just need to "get by" with your second running back. That's at the heart of Matt Waldman's Upside Down Drafting philosophy.
So how do you beat the efficient market? By strategically selecting a pair of undervalued running backs, who are being overlooked because they are only expected to be useful for half the fantasy season. But if you can take one "good early" running back and pair him with one "good late" running back, you've got yourself one good player. Let's start by looking at some running backs who are likely to be more valuable at the start of the season than their ADP indicates. In flex leagues, there's another value to some of these "Good Early" running backs: if you draft Rob Gronkowski, you can substitute him with one of these backs while he recovers from back surgery.
GOOD EARLY RUNNING BACKS
DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers
For the past few years, drafting Williams has felt like self-inflicted water torture: despite being a very talented running, Williams has consistently lost touches to Jonathan Stewart and Cam Newton. But with Stewart starting the season on the PUP list, and Carolina trying to limit the amount of hits Newton takes, Williams is a great sleeper for the first half of the fantasy season. Sure, Mike Tolbert may steal some goal-line touches, but Williams will be ranked in the top 20 in most weekly cheatsheets at the start of the year. That's a steal for a player with an ADP of RB32 in standard leagues and RB34 in PPR leagues.
Isaac Redman, Pittsburgh Steelers
Redman has an ADP of RB55 in non-PPR leagues and 59 in PPR leagues, making him an ideal late pick. His ADP is sure to rise now that he's expected to start the opener against Tennessee. With LeVeon Bell out with a foot injury, Redman will have some value in the early weeks of the season. Jonathan Dwyer was cut on August 31, and while LaRod Stephens-Howling will get their share of touches, but Redman projects as a passable RB2 in the early part of the season: if he happens to play well early, he could find himself starting all year.
Ahmad Bradshaw, Indianapolis Colts
Bradshaw is an injury risk with a capital I, but he's going to be healthy as we enter week one. You can't ask for a better matchup than at home against the Raiders, and Bradshaw projects as a top-15 RB in the first week of the season. His ADP is RB28/29, so you might have to take him a little earlier than other names on this list, but he seems likely to start the season well. The Colts also face the Jaguars and Chargers in the first five weeks, games which should lead to a lot of carries for Bradshaw. He may not last the season, but he could be a top-15 running back after six weeks.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Cincinnati Bengals
Based on the fantasy drafts I've seen, Green-Ellis is like a four-letter word you're not allowed to mutter. He lacks sizzle, especially in PPR leagues, but he's still the Bengals de facto starter entering the season. He has an ADP of RB33/RB37, but I've seen him fall out of the top 40 more often than not. Everyone wants to draft Giovani Bernard, but my guess is Green-Ellis is a passable RB2 at the start of the season. A bunch of 15-carry games with only one reception may not excite you, but if he scores a touchdown every other game, that makes him a reasonable RB2. You don't want to count on him all season, but Green-Ellis is a high-floor player you can draft while you wait for one of your Good Late running backs to emerge.
Ben Tate, Houston Texans
Houston opens the season against San Diego and Tennessee, two games the Texans should be able to win without having to run Arian Foster into the ground. The Texans may not hold Foster out entirely, but you can be sure that Tate will receive the majority of the second-half carries in those games if Houston is winning. He's an ideal player to pair as a flex option if you draft Gronkowski, as the star tight end might end up missing just two games. Obviously Tate's value shoots through the roof if Foster misses time, but since Tate is in a contract season, expect Houston to give him more carries this season and preserve Foster for a playoff run.
GOOD LATE RUNNING BACKS
LeVeon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers
With news of the foot injury, Bell's ADP has sharply dropped. He may not have much fantasy value until the second half of the season, but he's a perfect pairing with Redman... or Williams, Bradshaw, or Green-Ellis. If you pick at the turn, you might consider drafting two of those players back-to-back at the 6/7, 7/8, 8/9, or 9/10 turn, depending on your league size and starting lineup requirements.
Danny Woodhead, San Diego Chargers
This one is a PPR pick, as his ADP (RB43 in standard leagues, RB39 in PPR) suggests. Woodhead has the potential to be a Darren Sproles-lite type of player, a high-floor back who could catch four or five passes every week. In PPR leagues, you can "get by" with him as your RB2 if the rest of your team is strong. But the real value should come later in the season, as Ryan Mathews has shown an inability to stay healthy. San Diego seems intent on giving Mathews a chance early in the year, but if you expect San Diego to be a bad team in 2013, that means more opportunities for Woodhead in the passing game. The former Patriots player has the potential to be a top-24 RB in the second half of the season, and even higher if Mathews misses a significant amount of time.
Daniel Thomas, Miami Dolphins
Thomas has yet to show the power and burst he exhibited at Kansas State, but we have to first focus on opportunity. Miami may just be trying to light a fire under the assumed starter, the the Dolphins have been consistently vocal about their unhappiness with second-year back Lamar Miller. In fact, both players have taken first team snaps. The Dolphins will likely give Miller the starting job early in the year, but if he disappoints, Miami probably has a quicker trigger finger than most fantasy players assume.
Chris Ivory (non-PPR), Mike Goodson (PPR), New York Jets
Neither player had much of a training camp: Ivory was injured and missed a significant amount of time, while Goodson missed all of training camp and the first three preseason games. As a result, Bilal Powell has been the team's starter, and may even start in week one against the Bucs. That might be bad news for him, as Tampa Bay had the best rush defense in the NFL in 2012. It may take Ivory awhile to get the featured job, but he's falling hard in recent drafts. In non-PPR leagues, he's still a good bet to get 15 or so carries a game in the second half of the season, as Powell isn't talented enough to keep the job. As for Goodson, he's the ultimate last round flier pick. He's suspended for the first four games of the season, and not even in game shape yet. On the other hand, he is a talented receiving back in a Marty Mornhinweg offense. Keep an eye on reports about Goodson in September and October -- he will likely be on your waiver wire -- but he could end up being a solid plug-in player in November and December, as the Jets will be passing often in those games.
Joique Bell (Detroit Lions)/Christine Michael (Seattle Seahawks)/Lance Dunbar (Dallas Cowboys)/Jacquizz Rodgers (Atlanta Falcons)
DeMarco Murray is an injury risk until proven guilty, so spending a flyar on Dunbar at the end of your draft is an intriguing lottery ticket. Reggie Bush has stayed healthy the past couple of seasons, but the Lions are planning to give him 275+ touches. If he can't hold up to that workload, we know that Bell can be a productive PPR player in his absence. Similarly, Rodgers is a back who would have a lot of value in the second half of the season in PPR leagues if Steven Jackson finally breaks down. The Seahawks look to be one of the best teams in the league, and Marshawn Lynch has a punishing running style. If he gets dinged up, Seattle has a more-than-competent backup in Michael, and may not feel any need to rush Lynch back into action.
Jonathan Stewart/Vick Ballard - for the same reasons Williams and Bradshaw are viable early-season running backs, either of these players could be useful later in the season.
Conclusion
Some of the names in this article aren't exciting, but that's the point: you can get them late in your draft and build an elite roster outside of the RB2 spot. By pairing a couple of "good early" and "good late" running backs, you should be able to both have a good enough record to make the playoffs, and have a solid RB2 when the games matter most.
