Defensive Team by Committee 2017

Photo: USA Today Sports

For fifteen straight years, Footballguys has promoted the defensive team by committee (DTBC) strategy to help fantasy players dominate their leagues. Fantasy defenses are inconsistent from year to year, making it difficult to predict which defenses and special teams (D/STs) will excel. And, at least in theory, the teams available at the ends of your drafts should provide less rewards. So how do you get great production out of the position while saving your most important draft picks? We spend countless hours analyzing team offenses, and relatively few thinking about team defenses. But an average defense against a bad offense will do just as well as a great defense against an average offense. The key to the DTBC system is to find two teams available late in your draft whose combined schedule features predominantly weak offenses. By starting your defense based on matchups, your D/ST will generally face a weak offense, meaning your D/ST position will score lots of fantasy points.

The first step in creating the DTBC system is to grade the offenses. I've used the Footballguys projections to rank the offenses, scoring them the following way: (0.3 x Points scored) + (0.03 x Total Yards) - 2 x (Interceptions thrown + Fumbles Lost). While most leagues award significant points for sacks, we don't project offensive sacks allowed data. But don’t worry: we’ll keep pass rushers in mind when we select the DTBC. Below shows how many fantasy points above or below average you should expect each offense to be.  When facing the Patriots or Falcons, your fantasy defense will probably score about 4 less points than average, while facing the Jets, Rams, or 49ers should be a 3.5-point boon to your fantasy defense:

After grading the offenses, I went through the NFL schedule and assigned each team the offensive rating of their opponent in each week. I also added 1.5 points points to the offense's rating when they are at home and took away 1.5 points when the offense is on the road. Bye weeks are valued at 10 points to avoid combining D/STs that share the same bye week. After doing this for every game in every week, we can now rank each team’s schedule and pair up the defenses to form the best possible committee. One note: I'm ranking the committees through sixteen weeks, as most fantasy leagues don't play in Week 17.

2017 Defensive Team By Committee: Jacksonville and Philadelphia

Neither the Jaguars and Eagles require an early draft pick: on average, Jacksonville is the 14th defensive selected, while Philadelphia is the 13th. As a result, this is a cheap and easy combination to snag. You may think these defenses are cheap because they're not very good, but to that I offer you the following counterpoints:

• You will get 11 home games against just 5 road games.
• Your defenses will receive two games each against the Texans, Rams, and 49ers: all three teams have serious questions marks at quarterback.
• Your defenses also face the Jets, Browns, Bears, and Broncos: that totals 10 games against bottom-tier offenses.
• Most important? During the playoffs, you face the Rams, Texans, and 49ers.

The full schedule below:

Week 1: @ Houston Texans
Week 2:  Tennessee Titans
Week 3:  Baltimore Ravens
Week 4: @ New York Jets
Week 5:  Arizona Cardinals
Week 6:  Los Angeles Rams
Week 7:  Washington Redskins
Week 8:  San Francisco 49ers
Week 9:  Denver Broncos
Week 10:  Los Angeles Chargers
Week 11: @ Cleveland Browns
Week 12:  Chicago Bears
Week 13:  Indianapolis Colts
Week 14: @ Los Angeles Rams
Week 15:  Houston Texans
Week 16: @ San Francisco 49ers

Breakout Defenses?

The Jaguars defense could wind up being one of the best in the NFL. On the defensive line, Jacksonville now has Malik Jackson (added in 2016 from Denver) and Calais Campbell (Arizona this offseason) to team with youngsters Yannick Ngakoue (8 sacks as a rookie) and Dante Fowler Jr(third overall pick from the 2015 Draft). At linebacker, Myles Jack was a steal in the second round of last year's draft, while Telvin Smith Sr and Paul Posluszny are both above-average.  And in the secondary, Jalen Ramsey (runner-up for AP Defensive Rookie of the Year last season) teams with A.J. Bouye (the top cornerback in free agency) to give the Jaguars a pair of strong cover man.  

The Eagles defense could be even better. At defensive tackle, Fletcher Cox and new addition Timmy Jernigan (Ravens) will make running up the middle very challenging for opposing offenses, while Vinny Curry and Brandon Graham will get help at defensive end with Chris Long (Patriots) and Derek Barnett (2017 first round pick) now on the team.  Last year, Nigel Bradham and Jordan Hicks had big years at linebacker, and together with Mychal Kendricks, Philadelphia is in good shape in the middle of the defense.  The secondary is the weak spot, but adding cornerback Ronald Darby (Buffalo) should help, and with this front seven, the Eagles can get by with a weaker set of defensive backs.

WANT JUST ONE?

In some leagues, it's just too costly to spend two rosters spots on defenses. If that's your plan, it still pays to know the ability level of the offenses that each team will face. The Cardinals, Colts, Bengals, and Jaguars have the easiest schedule in the league, with the Falcons, Bucs, Bills, Dolphins, and Broncos defenses getting the short end of the stick (i.e., they face the best offense). The full list is presented below: Note that week 17 has been excluded in calculating these ratings.

Every Combination

Finally, here's a look at how every combination fares on a per-week  basis.  Remember, lower is better.