The past two weeks were critical ones to examine your dynasty team’s outlook for the rest of the season. This week’s article will focus on target players and moves to make for contending teams in 2015:
The Minimal Cost Theory
My general approach for contending teams is to patch legitimate holes on the cheap and buy points for minimal cost. First, let’s unpack the ‘patch legitimate holes’ aspect: many times I see owners filling a hole by the most expensive means necessary. They trade future first round picks (aka ‘making a deal with the devil’) or their best young upside assets to address a starting lineup spot. I look at buying current year points the exact opposite: how can I keep this position from leaking for the lowest cost. That is AFTER I fully examine if it is a vital need. For example, waiting on Tony Romo as my primary quarterback is more of a need than Ben Roethlisberger.
The second part, ‘buy points for minimal cost’, is the other key aspect. By midseason the waiver wire is largely dry of legitimate plug-and-play options in leagues with more than 22 roster spots. Maybe there is a tight end or two with upside TE2 projections or a quarterback or two filling in due to injury. Therefore, trading is the recipe to bolster a lineup by this point in the season. The problem is many owners think the best way to plug a hole is with a top option. Need a quarterback? Fix it with Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck. Missing a wide receiver or two due to injury? Make a blockbuster deal for Antonio Brown or Julio Jones.
Where did the production shortcoming originate? An injured player will return and banking on rookies to be starters is a losing historical bet. Check out the strength of schedule data. A rough opening month schedule can give a false indication of what is occurring with a player or offense. By October the strength of schedule numbers are solidifying and seeing a break in the clouds approaching can alleviate the need to patch a starting lineup hole.
The biggest overarching point regarding win now trades centered on the current year is the sobering odds of winning a title with or without making a move. In a typical 12-team league, the simple math is each team has an 8.5% chance to take home the title. A dominant roster to start the season may have a 14-17% chance (double the ‘average’ team). In my book the goal is to make the playoffs – get a ticket to the dance. What happens in December in a one or two-game sample size is up to the fantasy powers above. There was a forum thread long ago here at Footballguys outlining the impact of points-per-game (PPG) on winning head-to-head matchups. After double-checking with fellow staffer Adam Harstad, the data was roughly every points-per-game upgrade results in a 1% increase in win probability. That means even upgrading from a marginal starter, say 10 PPG, to a certified stud, say 20 PPG, still has any singular team as the underdog to the field. Get to the 4-team playoffs and a dominant team may be in the 30-35% probability for the title, compared to 25% for the average playoff squad.
The other factor on buying a substantial upgrade on a starting lineup spot like the above example is if you are actually buying that advantage. Any dip in short-term production by injury or schedule or ancillary factors eats away at the advantage an owner was banking on for the closing weeks of the season. All of this fuels my strong recommendation to be highly selective when making a win now move. Do it for cheap only when truly dying at a position. Here are some inexpensive targets to boost an otherwise strong roster for a playoff run:
Quarterbacks
Tyrod Taylor, Matthew Stafford.
Both have outstanding schedules the rest of the season and are available at minimal cost in the average league. I would expect a second round rookie pick would get either one and perhaps less would trigger a deal. I saw a deal of Joseph Randle and a Round 3 pick for Stafford on one occasion. Another recently was Derek Carrier for Tyrod Taylor in a 16-team tight end premium format. Both are quality bets if hurting at quarterback.
Running Backs
Danny Woodhead, James Starks, Theo Riddick, Charles Sims.
Woodhead is the quintessential win now bargain purchase. He is insulated from game script in San Diego, gets red zone work, and is a highly efficient third down back. Woodhead has 12+ PPR points in 5-of-6 games this season. As a team looking ahead in a league with Danny Woodhead, I shopped him recently to contending teams and was unable to get a second round pick for him. As a contending team, I would love to buy Woodhead for a late second. A third round pick and a marginal player may very well get Woodhead from a non-competitive team this season.
Eddie Lacy looks closer to Trent Richardson than a functional running back. On the flip side, James Starks has burst and the upper hand for the lead back role in Green Bay. Starks has two games of at least 14 PPR points in the past month and Eddie Lacy has not hit even 12 points since Week 1. Starks is virtually free in the dynasty marketplace to boost a running back group for the second half of the season.
Ameer Abdullah has underwhelmed and fumbled in the opening games of his rookie season. Zach Zenner is out for the season. Joique Bell looked horrible before dealing with injury himself. Riddick has been the best back in Detroit. Riddick has scored at least eight points in every game this season, including 32 points the past two weeks. In PPR, Riddick has little name value compared to his lineup value. Riddick is obtainable for a third round pick.
Charles Sims carries a mid-to-late second round value. He logged three straight games of 13+ PPR points before Tampa Bay’s Week 6 bye week. Sims has upside beyond his 1B to Doug Martin’s 1A role with a Martin injury .Sims has seen eight or more touches in every game since Week 1 and is averaging nearly four targets per game.
Wide Receivers
Golden Tate, Travis Benjamin, Malcom Floyd.
The Lions have a tremendously easier schedule for the rest of the season after a brutal opening slate. Instead of targeting the more expensive Calvin Johnson, target Golden Tate. Johnson and Tate are nearly neck and neck in targets on the season (62 vs. 56). Tate’s best two games of the season have been the past two weeks at 16 points each contest. While not an overt touchdown scorer in his career, Tate’s 3% touchdown rate through six weeks is highly likely to regress upwards over the final 10 games. Tate is a quality target for a future second round pick.
Travis Benjamin is the clear lead target in the Browns passing game with 52 targets, 45 in the past four games. Benjamin is one of eight receivers to hit 10 PPR points in every game played (minimum of four) this season. The Browns are another passing game with a schedule uptick coming up especially after the Rams matchup in Week 7. A recent trade was a late first round pick for Travis Benjamin and a mid-second round selection as an example.
Malcom Floyd is an oft-injured, but highly efficient receiver over the course of his career. Floyd is currently healthy and San Diego’s passing game is humming along. Floyd may be on the waiver wire in your league. The Chargers have an outstanding schedule for wide receivers the rest of the season, especially over the next month. Floyd is averaging more than five targets per game, including 16 over the past two weeks. Floyd has consistently been a 10% or better touchdown rate receiver in his career and sits with one score on 16 receptions (zero in the last four games) this season. In addition to everything else, Floyd is a touchdown regression candidate the rest of the season.
Tight Ends
Delanie Walker has little name value and the Titans are a top team in terms of schedule uptick coming up for tight ends. The opening six weeks have been brutal for Tennessee and Walker is still TE11 in points per game.
The Josh Hill breakout is not coming and Ben Watson has dominated the snaps in New Orleans all season. His 28-point outburst in Week 6 will boost his waiver wire appeal (if available in more shallow leagues) and moderate market value, but he will still be in the Round 3 range at most. After the Colts in Week 7, Watson’s schedule softens significantly.