Here are my final tier rankings of the pre-season (Updated August 31, 2016 - 11pm)
When I draft, I always have a tier sheet handy. I find that organizing players by tiers is far more beneficial than merely ranking players. I could rank Odell Beckham Jr over Julio Jones, but it is impossible to truly predict who will finish better between the two of them. Maybe Jones has fifty more yards on the season than Beckham, or maybe Beckham has one more touchdown. Who knows, but I do know that both should finish better than a guy like Mike Evans.
QUARTERBACK TIERS
Tier 1
Aaron Rodgers, Packers – Injuries to his wide receivers and Fat Eddie killed him. “Fat Eddie” is now “In Shape Eddie” plus Jordy Nelson is back. The addition of Jared Cook could possibly help as well. Remember, in 2014 he threw for 4,381 yards and 38 TDs, adding 269 yards and 2 TDs on the ground. He put up even bigger numbers in 2012 and 2011. If he falls to the 5th round, he’s worth every penny.
Cam Newton, Panthers – Dominated last season with a pathetic wide receiver core. This year he gets back Kelvin Benjamin, plus Devin Funchess will be in his second year and is flashing this pre-season. There is a reason Jonathan Stewart scores so few touchdowns ... Cam.
Drew Brees, Saints - As sure a thing as there is at the QB position and has never finished outside of the top 5 since joining the Saints. The additions of Michael Thomas and Coby Fleener, plus the development of Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead will help ensure Brees is a top option once again.
Russell Wilson, Seahawks – Showed last year that he can have success as a pocket passer. He will have even better weapons available to him this season and while attempts won't increase, what he does with them should be even better and has a great floor running the ball.
Tier 2
Andrew Luck, Colts – Expect a major bounce back after an injury riddled season. The team doesn't have much of a run game or defense, so look for them to pass early and often. Called pass plays on 62% of their plays last season and Moncrief, Hilton, Dorsett and Allen all entering their primes. I dopped him below the first Tier because he's supposedly having a spotty camp. I wonder if he's still injured or maybe he's just weary of getting hit behind their terrible offensive lines.
Tom Brady, Patriots – Would be in Tier 1 if not suspended, but between missing 4 games and his bye week, that's essentially over 30% of the fantasy season right there. A good strategy would be to buy low and play QBBC for the first four weeks to cover yourself. This team is stocked with weapons once he returns.
Tier 3
Carson Palmer, Cardinals – Weapons galore and he will always take his shots. Downside is that he is entering his age 37 season and has taken a good share of abuse over the years, yet great completion percentage (64%) and solid 8.7 yards per attempt last season. The team also has a Top 10 offensive line. My only hesitation is that he hasn't played well during the pre-season so far, so you have to wonder if the end for Palmer has come.
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers – He averaged a league leading 328 passing yards per game and also led the league in 40+ yard completions last year. However, the loss of Martavis Bryant for the season along with Ladarius Green's concussion issue and Bell's three game suspension hurts. If he can actually hold onto the ball, Sammie Coates Jr could provide sufficient firepower to make up for the loss of Bryant with DeAngelo Williams filling in for the loss of Bell, but this all knocks Big Ben down a Tier and makes him a bit shakier of a play then he would have been with all his weapons.
Matthew Stafford, Lions – The teams early 2015 struggles weren’t his fault if you actually watched the tape. Stafford came on big time after new OC Jim Bob Cooter took over (19tds and only 2ints), finishing as the league's number five QB from Week 10 on. He was also lethal passing in the redzone, with a 75% completion percentage inside the 10. They also beefed up the offensive line this off-season. He is being severely under-drafted at the moment on a team without a foundation back, but with running backs that are adept at catching the ball.
Philip Rivers, Chargers – Has a chance to be a Top 5 QB and reliable starter if the offensive line and main wide receivers stay healthy. Loss of Stevie Johnson hurts a bit, but James Jones or Tyrell Williams should hopefully be able to limit the impact until he returns. If all goes well, he's a steal, especially with a weaker Defense that still hasn't signed their first round draft pick. If you are one of those people betting against Melvin Gordon, you should be betting on this teams passing game, which includes Danny Woodhead.
Kirk Cousins, Redskins – Arguably has the best receiving core in the league with the addition of rookie Doctson to go along with DeSean Jackson, Garcon, Reed and Crowder. Threw for 4,166 yards, with 29 TDs and only 11 Ints, while also rushing for another 5 TDs. Should be even better this season in a contract year despite being a limited quarterback.
Tier 4
Eli Manning, Giants – Additions of Sterling Shepard, a somewhat healthy Cruz and commitment to Jenning's and Vereen should provide much needed firepower to provide him a solid weekly floor. Unfortunately, Eli is always subject to bouts of bad play.
Blake Bortles, Jaguars – Young team loaded with weapons started to blossom last year and should continue to improve this season. Just don't go nuts, as better defense and better run game could lead to less garbage time production and he did have poor 58% completion rate last year.
Tyrod Taylor, Bills – He throws a nice deep ball and ran for 568 yards and 4 TDs, yet only 20 passing touchdowns The key is Watkins, who has a foot injury and accounted for nearly 40% of Taylor's passing yards and 44% of Taylor's touchdown throws. This is also still a run first team, which stifles his potential upside, but at least he runs as well. So far all signs point to Watkins being healthy for the season.
Derek Carr, Raiders – This is a young offense on the rise and he proved that he was the one that made Davante Adams look good in college, not the other way around. Some game script criticism with better defense, but I'm betting on the young emerging talent in this Raiders offense (Walford, Cooper, Murray, Washington, Crabtree) along with a top 3 offensive line and a suspect run game.
Marcus Mariota, Titans – They’ve beefed up the run game, wide receiver core and offensive line. While the team would like to play exotic smash-mouth football, with a suspect Defense, he could end up being this years’ Bortles, the king of garbage time production. He should also have a decent running floor this year.
Andy Dalton, Bengals –Additions of LaFell and Boyd are a downgrade to Sanu and Jones. While Dalton played well last year, you just can’t rely on him to be your QB1 despite stretches of great play, especially with Eifert still injured. It’s the untrustworthy factor that keeps him here.
Tier 5
Jameis Winston, Buccaneers – Has okay weapons and has dedicated the off-season to getting into shape and fine-tuning his craft. But while he three for more than 4,000 yards as a rookie, even when the team was losing they stuck the run far more than most teams. Will that change in year 2? Has brutal schedule the first five weeks of the season and then a bye, so you can't draft him as your QB1.
Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins – If he could just complete some deep passes I would move him up a tier. Weapons galore with addition of Leonte Carroo, but the vibes of this offense have not been great so far.
Ryan Fitzpatrick Jets – The first six weeks of their season is as tough as it comes, but it gets better after that. Lots of weapons and Chan Gaily loves to throw it around.
Robert Griffin III III, Browns – This team is all of a sudden loaded with legit weapons with Josh Gordon is back and Pryor finally getting it, which is a huge boost to this offense and his value. RG3 also gets it done with his feet and the impact of HC Hue Jackson cannot be under-estimated.
Brock Osweiler, Texans – John Elway didn’t believe in Brock after 4 years, I don’t either, but with J.J. Watt looking like he may miss some of the regular season, this is a team that may have to throw more than they were expecting and with emergence of Strong, drafting of rookies Will Fuller and Braxton Miller, and the addition of running back Lamar Miller, his weapons are looking strong.
Tier 6
Joe Flacco, Ravens – He has better weapons this year and OC Marc Trestman likes to throw.
Alex Smith, Chiefs – two words: Alex. Smith. He’s not like a box of chocolates, but he has a safe floor and runs the ball.
Jay Cutler, Bears – A healthy Alshon Jeffery and Kevin White could mean big numbers for Cutler, but like Dalton, huge weeks can always lead to some major duds. John Fox would also love for the run game to be the teams’ offensive foundation.
Matt Ryan, Falcons – Talent isn't a question, but a lack of receiving talent beyond Julio Jones still a concern. Improved offensive line and second year comfort in this complicated offense should help a lot. I think his head was swimming more than he let on trying to learn the Kyle Shanahan’s offense.
Sam Bradford, Eagles – Okay supporting cast and has talent, but still nothing more than an average QB2 now running a more conservative offense. He could end up finishing in Tier 5 or 6 if he played all season, but I think we eventually see rookie Wentz.
Dak Prescott, Cowboys - He has weapons around him and the best offensive line in football. He's played well so far, but Defenses have not been scheming for him. It could get rough, but he has a shot. Not crazy to think he is the next Russell Wilson.
Trevor Siemian, Broncos - He won the job and does have Thomas, Sanders and C.J. Anderson, so he has a chance to do something. Just keep in mind, he did nothing in college, but hey, who did?
Tier 7
Case Keenum, Rams - I think the Rams are serious about sitting Goff to start the year. If there is nothing left on the wire and you need a quarterback in a 2QB league, at least he's a starter.
Josh McCown, Browns – If RG3 gets hurt, and he just might, he is a solid WR2 with all these weapons. In 2QB leagues, not a bad bench stash.
Jared Goff, Rams – Lack of weapons and an offensive line will keep the ball in Gurley’s belly. Bright future, but this might be rough.
Carson Wentz, Eagles – Will probably start at some point this season.
Paxton Lynch, Broncos – They have to hope he doesn’t need to play this year, but great dynasty future.
Tony Romo, Cowboys – Broken back may be it for him, especially if Dak Prescott becomes the next Russell Wilson. He's not worth drafting, but you can monitor ont he waiver wire if Prescott is faltering and it look slike Romo getting healthy.
Blaine Gabbert, 49ers – He's horrible.
Colin Kaepernick, 49ers - He's also horrible.
Geno Smith, Jets – Fitzpatrick is back, so he's back to the bench. Could get another shot next year.
Brian Hoyer, Bears – Cutler does seemingly get hurt every season.
Mark Sanchez, Broncos – Looks like he played himself out of a starting job.
Chase Daniel, Eagles – Might be their starter if Bradford goes down.
RUNNING BACK TIERS
Tier 1
Todd Gurley, Rams – Fully healthy and the foundation of their offense. Some worry about game script, but their Defense is solid, so they should be in most games, and while the offensive line was brutal last year, all the key linemen return and most were drafted in 2014 and 2015, so they should take a step forward as well. I also think he is a better pass catcher than he was used as last season, and he still averaged 9 yards a catch. I think it's a good bet he catches at least 2-3 passes a game with a full pre-season under his belt. People forget, he was a rookie coming off of a December knee surgery last season. This year he is fully healthy, knows the playbook, knows the NFL and has had a full pre-season of work.
David Johnson, Cardinals – Should be their workhorse back and will see light boxes. Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington will still get a few touches, but even with just 60% of the team’s carries, that comes out to 250 carries based on last years numbers. He is also a former wide receiver who is one of the best route runners on the team, so add in catches, and he is pushing close to 300 touches easily. If you want a safe pick in this area of the draft, this is the guy.
Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys – Unreal landing spot and he can do it all: run the rock through people, around people and no problem lining up outside to catch passes. The Cowboys will want to limit the wear and tear on Romo as well. My only fear is Alfred Morris stealing some goal-line work behind this dominant offensive line. Domestic violence charge against him looks to be debunked for now.
Tier 2
Adrian Peterson, Vikings – Betting against him is never good and only converted 4 of 14 goal line carries, which is fluky. But while they have an upgraded offensive line and he performed well last season, he seemed to have lost just a step on some of his runs. They also have a decent receiving core with the addition of Treadwell to go along with Diggs. That said, with Teddy done for the year, they will rely on Peterson more than ever.
LeVeon Bell, Steelers – Rehab looked like it was going better than expected, but now suspended for the first three games of the season. He is an elite talent and worth covering for him for three weeks when you get to use him for the part of the season that really counts, the fantasy playoffs. Someone like Crowell has an easy opening slate to help you weather the early storm.
Lamar Miller, Texans – Rock solid RB1 who could finish in the top 3 easily. If picking towards the end of round 1, smart move may be going wide receiver in the first and Miller in the second despite the presence of the other running backs listed above on your first pick.
Mark Ingram, Saints – Steady option that was the third overall running back before he went down in Week 13. Although he has also not played more than 13 games since 2012. But he's their foundation back and once considered a passing down liability, last year he went 50/405 on 59 targets (85% catch rate) with 8.1 YPR in only 12 games. That's upside.
Tier 3
LeSean McCoy, Bills – Run heavy team, including top 3 last year in the redzone, and somehow only 27 years old. He is their foundation back that gets it done in the air and on the ground. Just needs to stay healthy.
Eddie Lacy, Packers – Fat Eddie is now Phat Eddie after jacking up in the off-season. Has the talent and situation to put up solid RB1 numbers. All signs positive from camp so far.
C.J. Anderson, Broncos – Was the foundation of their offense during last season’s playoff run. Rookie Booker more of a compliment back that should keep Anderson fresh rather than steal his job and all signs point to the Broncos having the run be their foundation this year, the way Kubiak usually likes to play.
Jamaal Charles, Chiefs – Don’t ever count this guy out, but goal line looks could go to Ware to keep him fresh coming off second ACL injury. While he has X-Men type healing powers, he might not be ready for the start of the season, and if he is, he will be on a snap count. I've moved him done because of this. Tread carefully.
Devonta Freeman, Falcons – Freeman did most of his damage over only four games last year and averaged a pathetic 3.1 yards per carry between Week 9 and 17 last season. I’m not entirely sold like some, but concede that redzone ability and pass catching ability provide him a very solid floor in the PPR leagues. But Coleman will get the ball more than people are expecting, especially after comments from the teams Head Coach, General Manager and Running Back coach all confirming this.
Doug Martin, Buccaneers – I’m probably lower on him than I should be. A better standard league option.
Tier 4
Jeremy Hill, Bengals – Still young and talented. I think they go to him more this season with very little receiving options outside of Green and (an injured) Eifert. The Bengals also finished last season as a top 4 team in rushing percentage in the redzone. Game script should work in his favor and keep in mind, he has 21 touchdowns in just 32 games, pretty solid for a running back at this ADP. Word out of camp is that he has looked great and they will use him a lot.
DeMarco Murray, Titans – I’ll admit, it has taken me a while to get here on Murray. Derrick Henry will steal touches, and maybe the ones that count, but all reports have stated that Murray will be their lead back … at least this year. It's also worth mentioning, as Rotoworld's Rich Hribar pointed out, while Murray averaged only 2.8 yards per carry on runs behind or off tackle, he averaged 4.6 yards on runs between the guards, something that suits his power running style better. After new Titans HC Mike Mularkey took over mid-season last year, 56% of the Titans' running back runs were run between the guards. Additionally, when Murray played in Dallas, 90% of his runs came when the QB was under center, while with the Eagles, only 15% came when the QB was under center. Last season, 75% of the Titans runs came when the QB was under center ... you do the math.
Carlos Hyde, 49ers – Chip likes to run as much as to pass and Hyde has experience running his inside zone running scheme and he thrives running out of the shotgun, averaging almost 2 yards per carry more (5.1). He's one of the league's true feature backs that will push 20 touches every game due to the 49ers up-tempo style of play even if game flow restricts his touches in the 4th quarter. Chip Kelly is not someone that abandons his scheme easily, even when behind, and due to the up-tempo nature of his offense, he doesn't often rotate when they are in attack mode, keeping Hyde in the game. He also finished last season as the top rated running back in PFF's elusive rating. All that said, Gabbert is not very accurate and this team has bad vibes overall, especially with Ellington now out. I'm weary of drafting any 49ers player.
Thomas Rawls, Seahawks – He wasn’t the passing down back last season and still put up monster numbers. Marshawn Lynch was never the team’s passing down back either and he did just fine. Finally activated from their PUP list and I’m not concerned by the presence of Alex Collins, although Christine Michael seems to have finally gotten it and will steal touches and passing down work. I still like Rawls as the team’s best early down runner and his current ADP makes him a value at the moment.
Latavius Murray, Raiders – Not an elite back despite year end numbers (267/1066/6 rushing and 41/232/0 through the air on 53 targets). Upgraded offensive line and sheer volume should allow him to put up RB2 numbers every week while he is the starter even if he leaves some yards on the field. I also wouldn't be surprised to see rookie DeAndre Washington steal touches (and possibly his job), but for now, volume alone with make Murray a safe weekly play.
Matt Forte, Jets – The presence of Powell is keeping Forte’s value depressed, but he will end up being a solid PPR value in drafts. Powell will steal some touches and Forte may not put up big numbers on the ground, especially the first six weeks of the season with a brutal schedule, so while he is an avoid in standard leagues, he should easily catch over 75 passes in this vertical four pass offense.
Tier 5
Danny Woodhead, Chargers – PPR gold that finished as the RB3 in PPR leagues last year. Usually catches at least three passes a game, received more redzone touches than Melvin Gordon last year and game script should be on his side with a porous Defense. All that said, this team desperately wants Gordon to succeed.
Melvin Gordon, Chargers – Major disappointment in his rookie year. Rookie wall and the decimation of their offensive line and receiving core didn’t help though. Juries still out especially with Woodhead in the mix. The teams wants him to succeed, but beat writer Kevin Acee mentioned that Gordon wasn't very "football smart." One to watch closely since he has big play ability and they really want him to be their guy.
Ameer Abdullah, Lions – Love the talent and they do want him to be their three down back depsite presence of Riddick and Zenner. If you want to take a stab on an upside guy with a lot of talent, he's the guy to grab as your RB3 or 4.
Jonathan Stewart, Panthers – They didn’t add anything in the draft, so he’s their workhorse. Yet, how many times did he kill you in DFS last year? Cam and Tolbert will once again vulture the goal-line carries and he doesn't catch that many passes.
Jeremy Langford, Bears – He struggled on the ground (48/537/6 rushing - 3.6 YPC) ) and through the air (22/279/1 receiving on 42 targets - 52.4% catch rate), but being the only game in town with Forte, Bennet, Royal, Jeffery and White injured, he put up points. That said, all signs so far in camp point to him being their guy. Can he make a second year leap?
Frank Gore, Colts –Actually ran better than his 3.7ypc average. Great pickup at his current 7th round ADP as your 3rd or 4th running back, but best to let someone else take the 33 year old especially since they essentially don't have an offensive line.
Ryan Mathews, Eagles – Big winner from the draft. He’s their guy and produces when he's on the field. Just needs to stay healthy. He never stays healthy.
Duke Johnson Jr, Browns – I love the talent, but with an ADP in the early 5th round and climbing, he is too pricey. Earlier in the year the team didn't have a passing game, which is no longer the case with Gordon, Pryor and Coleman all flashing in the pre-season. Additionally, trusted beat writers have maintained that Crowell will handle early down and goal-line work. I love the talent, but he's looking more like Gio Bernard in this offense. If you want to own just one Browns RB, Crowell the better value, but the Duke should have a safe PPR flex floor at least, catching 50 passes. I just wish he was going in the late 6th or 7th and not pushing into the 4th.
Giovani Bernard, Bengals –Averaged a solid 4.7 YPC going 154/730/2 on the ground, with an additional 49/472/0 through the air for 9.6 YPR on 66 targets. Like Hill, he should be involved more with Eifert out and the loss of other weapons, but Hill kills his upside in the redzone, with Bernard getting only 2 goa line carries to Hills 13. He only scored 2 TDs last year, but usually hovers around 7.
Matt Jones, Redskins – His body and hair fly’s in all directions, but that doesn’t mean he’s always going in the right direction as evidenced by his pathetic 3.4 yards per carry last year, and from Week 3 on, he actually averaged an even more pathetic 2.85 yards per carry. Additionally, 26.4% of his carries went for negative or zero yards, third worst in the league. He could easily put up Latavius Murray 2015 type numbers through sheer volume, but when he ends up in the doghouse for fumbling again, like he did in the second pre-season game, my money is on someone else stepping in eventually. Dealing with a shoulder injury right now as well.
Isaiah Crowell, Browns – Will form a RBBC with Duke Johnson Jr. A team built on analytics seems to be sold on him as their bigger back. Hopefully RG3 and a new wide receiving core can keep defenses honest and open things up for him. Has good intangibles and prominent Browns beat reporter, Mary Kay Cabot, says he is their bell cow and a lock for 1,000 yards this season. We all love the Duke, but people are sleeping on Crowell.
Jay Ajayi, Dolphins – Would have been my second rated running back if he came out this year. Similar profile to Marshawn Lynch with great hands. Went 50/535/4 through the air his final year of college, while adding another 347/1,823/28 on the ground. Arian Foster signing will steal a good chunk of his pass catching work, but I'm not counting on Foster staying healthy all year and I don't suspect he will have much juice left after years of soft tissue injuries. A great buy-low candidate who in 49 carries last year broke 12 tackles and averaged 3.3 yards after contact per attempt.
Charles Sims, Buccaneers – Underrated weekly PPR flex and bye week option. Managed 51/1,090/4 all-purpose yards. Look for those numbers to go up as he managed 4.9 yards per carry and flashed big time as a receiver. If Martin goes down, Sims value goes way up. He’s a weekly flex play in PPR leagues with the possibility for much more.
Tier 6
Rashad Jennings, Giants – Crowded backfield with Vereen and the addition of Paul Perkins, but the team has stated that he will be the lead guy. Over the final 4 games of last season, once they committed to him, he averaged 21.5 touches and 5.47 yards per carry, clocking in as the #7 fantasy RB in that stretch with nearly 18FPG. He's a steal in the 9th round of drafts right now.
Christine Michael, Seahawks – Seems to have had a change of attitude on his second deployment with the Seahawks. He's finally playing to his talent level and the commitment seems to be there with HC Peter Carroll stating that he makes a great 1, 2 punch with Rawls. While I expect Rawls to be the team's main ball carrier, he could easily get 8 to 10 rushes a game and he appears to be the teams current passing down back. Clear hesitancy since we have been here before, but big upside.
DeAngelo Williams, Steelers – Will put up elite numbers in the first three weeks with Bell suspended and if he plays like he did last year, he could be involved even when Bell returns, since Bell still coming off of knee surgery and this is a team that wants to be healthy in the playoffs. It's all about winning weeks and he will win you four for sure.
T.J. Yeldon, Jaguars – Addition of Ivory is a major buzz kill and for some reason they just don’t trust him near the goal-line. Has the talent to be a RB1, but may have to wait a year or two now. Ranking him above Ivory because I think he stays healthy while Ivory can't.
Chris Ivory, Jaguars – Time-share with Yeldon. Should get the goal line and short yardage work, so solid flex option in standard leagues. Needs to stay healthy.
Spencer Ware, Chiefs – Won’t get a ton of volume so long as Charles is healthy, but could get the ones that count. He's a dominant force on the ground who put up elite numbers in Joe Holka's Rushing Expectations methodology and in Lance Zierlein's IPI index. Wouldn’t be shocked if he scored 8+ TDs and he should be involved even when Charles is healthy to keep him fresh for the playoffs. He will be a RB1 if Charles goes down. He is special.
Derrick Henry, Titans – Won’t be their lead guy this year, but could score a lot of TD’s. A better standard league grab. He's a load to bring down when he gets going and certainly possible he supplants Murray as their early down back.
Bilal Powell, Jets – Handcuff to 30 year old Matt Forte and will get a handful of touches every week. PPR flex or handcuff grab only for now, but could be more.
Darren Sproles, Eagles – Getting up there in age, not sure you can expect too much even if he gets 5 or 6 touches every game. Seems like the team may be going to him by default though.
Arian Foster, Dolphins – Signed to a one year deal with a guaranteed salary of only $1.5 million, that's not starter money. Beset with soft tissue injuries, with his groin muscle being torn off the bone and then tearing his Achilles last year, he didn't have a lot of juice to begin with as he enters his year 30 season. Name recognition going a long way, just like Kobe Bryant in his final year, but his best bet is to help in the screen and passing game. Early camp reports have been very positive and he will probably return high end PPR flex value with weekly RB2 upside ... until he gets hurt again.
Tier 7
Tevin Coleman, Falcons – Talented enough to steal meaningful touches from Freeman and would be an immediate RB1 if Freeman goes down. No better handcuff and deep bench stash. Plus the team's coaches and General Manager have all stated that they intend to get Coleman more involved stating that "when it comes down to it, the one difference is the flat out long speed of Tevin Coleman." Early reports from camp have been positive about his receiving ability as well.
DeAndre Washington, Raiders – Short, but thick receiver in the Maurice Jones Drew mold. They would like him to be the receiving compliment to Murray, but could end up being much more.
Justin Forsett, Ravens – Entering his age 31 season and there is a ton of great competition here with West, Allen and Dixon, who could be this years David Johnson. Might be better for him to get cut or traded to a team like the Redskins.
James White, Patriots - Played well in place of Lewis last season in the passing game, catching 40 passes, but brutal on the ground, averaging only 2.5 yards per carry. Relying on any Bill Belichick running back is never a great idea. He is very matchup specific in his scheme.
C.J. Spiller, Saints – I don’t think he ever got over his foot injury, which kept him out of the pre-season and start of last season. If he proves well in pre-season he could be a major steal at his current ADP. Boom or bust in the biggest way. Looking like he is back though.
Tier 8
Shane Vereen, Giants – Should catch 50+ balls this year. With one year in the offense under his belt, not inconceivable he becomes a reliable weekly PPR flex option.
Chris Thompson, Redskins - He has been working as the teams exclusive passing down back in camp. Could easily by this seasons Riddick.
James Starks, Packers – Must own handcuff to Lacy, possible to have some weekly flex value.
Devante Booker, Broncos – Despite his size, he’s more of a complimentary back, but would get a shot at lead duties if Anderson went down or faltered. Then again, David Johnson was more of a complimentary back too despite his size and we saw how that turned out. Someone to stash on benchs and be patient with, like you had to do with Johnson last year.
Chris Johnson, Cardinals – Should be the handcuff to David Johnson and played well when he was their guy. Might see 30% of the team's carries and could be their closer once the team gets a big lead. RB2 if Johnson goes down.
Shaun Draughn, 49ers - Could get a few touches every week as the 49ers play an uptempo offense and don't rotate when they are moving. Could also get some solid 4th quarter work when they are down as a solid pass catching back.
Theo Riddick, Lions – Needs an injury to Abdullah or for him to face plant to rely on him week-to-week, but that happened last year when he caught 80 passes.
Javorius Allen, Ravens – The teams best pass catching back, but Forsett and Dixon are also capable pass catchers, even if not as good as him in that role. Certainly possible for him to hold weekly flex value in PPR leagues.
Jerick McKinnon, Vikings – Must own handcuff for Peterson with potential for stand-alone PPR flex value now that Bridgewater has command of the Norv Turner offense. The team has also hinted that they might take more snaps out of the shotgun. Out of the shotgun, McKinnon averaged 4.3 yards per attempt while Peterson averaged only 1.7.
Benny Cunningham, Rams - A change of pace back on a team that may never decide to change their pace. Gurley also a better pass catcher than he showed last year, coming off injury, but they are comfortable with Benny.
Alfred Morris, Cowboys – Behind this offensive line he could end up stealing a lot of Zeke's goal-line carries. Another sneaky candidate for few yards, but many touchdowns plus more with Elliot facing domestic violence charges.
Terrance West, Ravens - It's easy to dismiss him due to career up to this point, but he's been their best running back in camp so far and it's not like Forsett is a top notch talent. Possible he forms a 1-2 punch with Buck Allen. I've moved him up here for now, but could go further.
Robert Kelley, Redskins - The UDFA rookie from Tulane has size and some wiggle. He has been the most consistent producer between the tackles for Washington during the first two weeks of the preseason but both efforts came against second-team or third-team talent. With Matt Jones injury his shoulder and Keith Marshall on IR, Kelley bears monitoring. Wouldn't be surprised for the team to add additional running backs soon.
Tier 9
Jonathan Williams, Bills – True three down running back who noted analyst Greg Cosell compared favorably to Ezekiel Elliot. Missed all of 2015 with injury but had a 101.9 elusive rating in 2014 that would have been good enough for second in 2015. Great dynasty hold and more talented than Karlos Williams. His DUI charge shouldn’t effect his playing time this year.
Dion Lewis, Patriots – Worth a late add if you are in a very deep league in case he gets healthy.
Kenneth Dixon, Ravens – It’s a very crowded backfield with Justin Forsett, Buck Allen and Terrence West all capable and playing well so far in camp. But like David Johnson last year, if Dixon is given a chance, he could run away with the job. This is a high upside pick to own and be patient with.
Wendell Smallwood, Eagles - He displays a nice combination of vision, lateral quickness and speed. The current handcuff for Matthews, who has a substantial injury history. Could act as their change of pace back right away if Sproles has nothing left and could explode if Matthews goes down. A lower case Jamaal Charles type.
Reggie Bush, Bills - Recently signed and if he can show he's fully healthy coming off of knee surgery, could have value. The problem is that there are so many running backs in the mix, it might be a RBBC from hell if Shady goes down. Listed as their number 2 for now.
Zach Zenner, Lions – Abdullah is not going to be a workhorse and with Ridley gone, looks like he is their goal line back, although this is a team that likes to throw inside the redzone often.
Tyler Gaffney, Patriots - Big, strong and fast. The Patriots seems to really like him and he is getting run with the 1's. Could possibly pass up Blount if he falters.
Tier 10
Andre Ellington, Cardinals – Played on 31% of the snaps in games he played, but will see only a handful of touches a game unless there is an injury to Johnson. Could be useful if in dire need in PPR leagues here or there and becomes an every week PPR flex if David Johnson goes down.
C.J. Prosise, Seahawks – Big (6'1” 220lbs) and fast (4.48 forty). Needs to work on his game after only playing one year of running back in college after changing over from a wide receiver. He's missed a lot of time due to injury this pre-season and Christine Michael seems to have stolen his job.
Jordan Howard, Bears – Has a bit of an injury history, but a big and powerful running back that should easily assume early down and goal-line work for the Bears. John Fox wants the run game to be the teams’ foundation of this offense, as he did in Carolina. I've dropped him a bit since no clear indication he has seized that early down role and Fox does have a distaste for rookies.
Charcandrick West, Chiefs – Will need an injury to Charles and then still a part time player.
Cameron Artis-Payne, Panthers – Just a guy.
Dexter McCluster, Titans – Will get a handful of touches a game, but tough to rely on for any real production.
Mike Davis, 49ers - Has played well this pre-season and if Hyde goes down, he could end up being their lead back with Shaun Draughn handling passing duties.
Paul Perkins, Giants – Lots of competition here, but has juice, good balance and body control. Decent in pass protection so could carve out a role or even take over lead duties if Jennings isn't getting it done. If you're looking for upside in a Giants running back, he's your target.
Alfred Blue, Texans - The handcuff to Lamar Miller and played decently last season when given a chance, yet not special either.
Mike Gillislee, Bills - He averaged an impressive 5.7 yards per carry last year and on a team that likes to run, that holds value. Lots of competition though.
KaDeem Carey, Bears – Needs some injuries, and he's injured himself, but they are high on him.
Robert Turbin, Colts – Possible backup to Frank Gore. Not sexy, but competent.
Ronnie Hillman, Broncos – Will form a committee with rookie Booker if Anderson falters or goes down. May be cut, which could actually be good for his value. Sneaky last round pickup just in case he goes to Washington or New England.
Tyler Ervin, Texans – Not big (5’10” 192 lbs - 4.41 Forty), but has good balance, is tough, fast and explosive. A bit of Brian Westbrook to him. Will form a committee if Lamar Miller went down as possible passing down back.
Tier 11
Darren McFadden, Cowboys – Purely a handcuff for Elliot and he's also injured.
Daniel Lasco, Saints - Athletic freak who doesn't play to his talents. Certainly possible he puts it together, like many athletic freaks before him, but may take some time.
Brandon Wilds, Falcons - Really big, strong back and fast for his size. Only a waiver wire guy, but if Freeman and Coleman get injured, he would be next up and could produce nicely.
Kenyan Drake, Dolphins – Explosive for his size (6’1” 210lbs - 4.45 forty), but not a lead back. More of a package specific player, but conceivable he could be the Charles Sims to Ajayi’s Doug Martin. Horrible in pass pro in college, which isn't good for him seeing the field and one reason Arian Foster was signed.
Josh Ferguson, Colts – UDFA who made some noise in OTAs and the Indianapolis Star's Zak Keefer reported that he has "flashed consistently" in training camp. Hasn't done much in the pre-season games though.
Lance Dunbar, Cowboys – Was prolific catching passes last year for them, but Elliot may never leave the field.
Kelvin Taylor, 49ers – A downhill no nonsense runner that should act as Hyde’s handcuff.
Stevan Ridley, Lions – He's been cut, but maybe he ends up on a team like the Pats. Not looking good.
WIDE RECEIVER TIERS
Tier 1
Antonio Brown, Steelers – The best wide receiver in the NFL and in Fantasy as long as Big Ben stays healthy. Had an insane 193 targets last year and that could go up.
Julio Jones, Falcons – An absolute beast and he’s the only game in town. Had over 200 targets last year.
Odell Beckham Jr Giants – Sterling Shepard and the return of Victor Cruz should actually help him.
Tier 2
Brandon Marshall, Jets – Will this be the year he finally slows down? I doubt it. No reason he doesn’t have another 109/1,502/14 line this season with Ryan Fitzpatrick back in the fold in an offense headed by Chan Gailey. On a fantasy point per game basis, he was tied with Beckham and just below Brown and Julio Jones. In fact, there really is no reason for me or anyone not to rank him with the top three guys, but yet I don't. Hmmmm.
A.J. Green, Bengals – The focal point of their offense that will probably get force-fed the ball even more with Eifert injured and Jones and Sanu gone. He should push for over 150 targets like he did in 2012 and 2013.
DeAndre Hopkins, Texas – Brock not much of an upgrade over Hoyer, if at all, but Fuller, Strong, Shorts and Lamar Miller should help open up some space for him while J.J. Watt’s injury should also ensure that this team is thro