Expert DRAFTing Week 5

In 10-Team drafts, there should again be major urgency to lock up a solid pair of running backs. The quality drops off much more sharply after the top dozen running backs than it does at wide receiver. Quarterback is also deeper this week and you aren’t at a major disadvantage against most of your opponents if you wait until the last round to grab one. While quarterback is deep with solid options, there are few elite quarterbacks in great spots. It makes sense to reach for Aaron Rodgers and, to a lesser extent, Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott once the top running backs are gone.

After the safer, higher-upside running backs are off the board, the options are mostly unappealing in the final two rounds. Frank Gore brings a solid floor at home against San Francisco but his upside is questionable. Latavius Murray isn’t fully healthy and may have to share snaps with Jerick McKinnon. The Oakland Raiders would love to get Marshawn Lynch going but have shown no signs of being able to do so. Looking at these RB2 names should reinforce the importance of reaching to lock up two backs within the first three rounds. 

Quarterback Breakdown

1. Aaron Rodgers The Green Bay at Dallas matchup has far and away the highest game total of the week (52.5). Both offenses should have plenty of success. For the Packers, most of that success is very likely to flow through Rodgers and not the Packers’ mediocre running game. Ty Montgomery will probably be out with a rib injury, which leaves the Packers only a pair of late-round rookie running backs. The last time these teams met was in the playoff last season. Rodgers threw for 355 yards and led the Packers to a 34-31 upset 
2. Russell Wilson The Seahawks-Rams game has a lot of the elements we look for in a potential shootout. First, the Seahawks (3rd) and Rams (2nd) are behind only the New England Patriots in pace of play (situation neutral). Both of these teams have been in shootouts in recent weeks. The last two Rams games have seen 80 and 65 points scored. Seattle’s last two games have had 60 and 64 points scored. Wilson brings a solid weekly floor due to his rushing ability and he also has sneaky upside in this matchup with shootout potential.
3. Dak Prescott
4. Carson Wentz
5. Deshaun Watson
6. Carson Palmer Palmer is leading the league in pass attempts by a wide margin (46 per game). With David Johnson out, the Cardinals can’t run the ball and will look to Palmer to again carry the offense. The Eagles have a stout front but are weak at defensive back. The Eagles have allowed over 300 passing yards per game on average. 
7. Cam Newton
8. Ben Roethlisberger
9. Philip Rivers
10. Eli Manning

Running Back Breakdown

1. LeVeon Bell Over the past three weeks Bell is averaging30.3 touches per game and playing over 66 snaps per game. The usage has been there and it was only a matter of time until Bell broke out with a huge fantasy game. It came in Week 4 against a stout Ravens defense, as Bell scored twice and racked up 186 total yards. He returns home in Week 5 and the situation could not be much more favorable. The Steelers are 8-point home favorites facing a Jacksonville defense that is one of the toughest against the pass but has been getting demolished on the ground. Over the past three weeks, no team has given up more rushing yards than the Jaguars. Jacksonville is giving up 8.0 yards per carry over the past three weeks. 
2. Ezekiel Elliott The Cowboys have the highest implied team total (27.5) on the Sunday-Monday slate in a potential shootout game at home against the Packers. Aside from an outlier game in Denver, Elliott has at least 21 rushing attempts in every game. He has also been a big part of the passing game. Elliott is on pace for 64 receptions this season and no running back in the league has run more pass routes. Green Bay is without interior run-stuffer Mike Daniels and the logical game plan for the Cowboys is to pound away with Elliott to try to keep Aaron Rodgers on the sideline. In two meetings against the Packers last season, Elliott rushed for 282 yards (141 per game). 
3. Todd Gurley Over the past two weeks, Gurley has gone from a typical workhorse running back workload to an elite LeVeon Bell/David Johnson usage level. Gurley has carried the ball 25.5 times per game and averaged 6.0 receptions per game in road wins over San Francisco and Dallas. The Rams are 1-point home favorites in a game that Las Vegas sees as relatively high-scoring (46.5-point game total). The Seahawks have been surprisingly vulnerable against the run. Seattle enters this game as the sixth-worst run defense in the NFL, allowing 134 rushing yards per game.
4. Kareem Hunt Hunt is clearly one of the top-4 options this week but is in a tougher spot than any of the running backs ranked ahead of him. The Chiefs are missing their starting center Mitch Morse and lost their starting right guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif last week due to a knee injury. Left tackle Jake Fisher is playing through a back injury. While Kansas City has solid depth, the run of injuries to the offensive line is still a cause for concern. Even more worrisome is the matchup. After a disastrous Week 1 performance by the entire Texans team, Houston has been impossible to run against. No opposing rusher has topped 36 yards against the Texans since Leonard Fournette in Week 1. 
5. LeSean McCoy It’s hard to see McCoy having a big game on the ground against a stout Bengals front-seven that has given up just 76 rushing yards to opposing running backs the last two weeks. However, where Cincinnati is vulnerable is defending running backs in the passing game. The Bengals allowed 9 receptions to Duke Johnson Jr in Week 4 and 8 receptions to Ty Montgomery in Week 3. At the quarter-point of the season, McCoy is on pace for 84 receptions. With Jordan Matthews now out at wide receiver, McCoy’s pass game usage may go even higher. 
6. Leonard Fournette This is a tough spot for Fournette and the Jaguars. Jacksonville is an 8-point road underdog against Pittsburgh. But the team will not abandon the run even in negative game scripts. Fournette is averaging 20.3 rushing attempts per game and also has 3.0 receptions per game. He has also found the end zone every week. A huge fantasy performance from Fournette in Week 5 seems unlikely but his talent and workhorse role gives him a solid floor. 
7. Carlos Hyde
8. Melvin Gordon
9. Jordan Howard
10. Christian McCaffrey This is a sneakily strong spot for McCaffrey. He has averaged just 6.0 carries per game over the past three weeks but part of that was due to matchups. Expect him to see double-digit carries against Detroit in Week 5. Dalvin Cook was well on his way to a big day against the Lions in Week 4 before tearing his ACL and the Falcons smashed Detroit for 227 total yards. McCaffrey is on pace for 88 receptions and is capable of breaking off big gains when he gets the ball in the open field. 
11. Joe Mixon
12. Jay Ajayi
13. Bilal Powell
14. Lamar Miller
15. Ameer Abdullah
16. LeGarrette Blount Blount is the last-man-standing in the Eagles backfield. Darren Sproles is out for the season and Wendell Smallwood hasn’t been practicing due to a knee injury. While Corey Clement should get some touches, Blount should step into more of a workhorse role for Philadelphia. He is coming off of an impressive 156-yard performance against the Chargers last week. In a 10-Team league, Blount is a solid 5th-round Draft target. 
17. Frank Gore
18. DeMarco Murray
19. Latavius Murray
20. Marshawn Lynch

Wide Receiver Breakdown

1. A.J. Green In a week where the top receivers each face tough matchups, Green is narrowly the top play due to his bankable volume as the clear go-to target in the Bengals offense. Green has been as consistent as any receiver in the league with at least 5 receptions and 63 or more yards in every game. The Buffalo pass defense has been excellent, allowing just one touchdown through the air in four games. But from a stylistic perspective, the Bills zone scheme, which will allow completions underneath but takes away longer passes, plays into the Bengals’ strengths. Cincinnati seems resigned to the fact that the offensive line cannot protect Andy Dalton long enough to take a lot of deep shots. Under new coordinator Bill Lazor, the Bengals have found success focusing on quick passes. Since Lazor took over in Week 3, the Bengals have had seven long scoring drives of at least nine plays. 

2. Jordy Nelson As of Friday morning, it seems likely that Davante Adams will be able to play against Dallas despite taking a nasty shot to the head last week. 

3. Antonio Brown Aside from his elite talent, the main reason to like Brown this week is the “squeaky wheel” narrative. Brown was held to just 4 catches and 34 yards in Week 4 and threw a tantrum, tossing a Gatorade cooler. While Mike Tomlin doesn’t necessarily want to encourage this type of behavior, he also knows he needs to keep his superstar receiver involved and fully engaged. Expect a couple extra balls to be forced in Brown’s direction. The matchup couldn’t be much uglier though. Brown will see a lot of coverage from emerging superstar coverage-man, Jalen Ramsey. The Jaguars pass defense is strong overall and especially excels against opposing receivers, giving up the least fantasy points in the NFL to opposing receivers. 

4. DeAndre Hopkins While Hopkins might not have the elite talent of the other top receivers, he makes up for it with volume. Hopkins is averaging 12.2 targets per game. He should see another heavy workload in a favorable matchup against cornerback Terrance Mitchell. Last week’s 10-107-1 receiving line from Hopkins shows his upside. Perhaps even more impressive is Hopkins’ solid floor. He has scored at least 10.8 Draft points in every single game. 

5. Odell Beckham Jr/strong> Beckham is a risky proposition this week. He faces shadow coverage from ProFootballFocus’ #2 ranked cornerback, Casey Hayward. Beckham is also dealing with a dislocated finger and re-aggravated his ankle injury late in Week 4. At less than 100% and in a difficult matchup against the Chargers, letting someone else draft Beckham is a decent strategy. Beckham has the big-play ability to take a quick slant the distance at any time though, so at some point, he is worth rolling the dice on.