Pairing statistics with insightful context can uncover fantasy value in pre-draft prep. Delivering the insightful context is the difficult part. Three data points that have potential value for fantasy owners are the percentage of targets, yards, and touchdowns that pass catchers earn from their quarterback during the year.
This week's Gut Check column will examine these three statistical outcomes for running backs between 2014-2016. This information will also be paired with ADP, consistency data, and other salient points that will help readers identify some of the safest options in 2017 fantasy drafts.
About Consistency Data
I began publishing Consistency Data in 2004. What differentiates my examination of "fantasy consistency" from many is that I don't use standard deviation as the method because this stat's purpose is to measure the variance of a process. When I was posting a lot of consistency analysis in the early-to-mid 2000s, the few others who were analyzing consistent performance were valuing low standard deviations because it proved to them that the process is under control. When applied to fantasy football, standard deviation doesn't help us see the type of consistency that a fantasy owner desires from a player.
Standard deviation doesn't take into account what we really want to know: How consistently a player reaches at least the desired amount of fantasy points per game. "At least" are the two key words. Strict adherence to standard deviation as the process punishes players who score a lot more than the baseline target—even when they consistency deliver to that baseline.
For example, here's a look at the 2016's top-35 PPR running backs with a minimum scoring average of 10 points per game and ranked by lowest to highest standard deviation:
Lowest Standard Deviation Among 2016 PPR Running Backs (Minimum of 10 fantasy points per game average)
The third row highlighted in yellow is the player's standard deviation. Frank Gore, Todd Gurley, Rashad Jennings, and Darren Sproles top the list. At or near the bottom is LeVeon Bell, Melvin Gordon, LeSean McCoy, and David Johnson. However, examine the columns labeled Sub Par, Elite, RB #1, RB #2, and RB #3 to the right fo the table. These columns calculate the frequency that these backs reached these tiers of performance in 2016.
What stands out immediately are the meaningful differences between backs like Jennings and Sproles—whose weekly performances fell to bye-week option (worse than an RB3 in a 12-team league) in at least 50 percent of their games—and studs like Bell and Johnson who scored worse than the average performance of an RB3 for no more than 20 percent of their games. In fact, Johnson was only worse than an RB3/flex-option 6% of the time. When weighting consistency analysis heavily on standard deviation, the most productive players get punished for the wrong reasons.
Sproles and Jennings had standard deviations below 6 points and Bell had a 14-point figure, but when measuring the runner's performance against average value tiers of starter performance as shown in these last five columns on the table, you're rewarding runners for the optimal kind of deviation rather than punishing them. Even if we restricted the list to runners with at least 15 fantasy points per game and ranked solely by standard deviation, the information wouldn't have enough context because LeGarrette Blount and Theo Riddick would still be ranked higher the likes of Johnson, Bell, LeSean McCoy, and Melvin Gordon.
I will examine player consistency in greater depth this summer.
Running Backs Of Passing Game Note
Even before restricting this query to runners with at least 400 yards receiving and 8 games played, the list of backs heavily involved in their passing games is naturally smaller than receivers and tight ends. Let's begin with the runners earning the highest percentage of targets from their starting quarterbacks per season for the past three years.
There's a lot of data here, but the insights of note are highlighted or in bold and discussed below.
Running Back Target Percentages For Seasons 2014-2016 (Minimum of 400 yards receiving and 8 games played)
Meets Value Expectation
Although this table is sorted by target percentage, we know that Duke Johnson Jr isn't a stud fantasy option. He accounted for a fantastic percentage of Manziel and Kessler's targets during the past two years on a team that a bad defense and holes in its receiving corps. It means Johnson has been the check-down king in Cleveland, but he's not an every-week fantasy starter. Isaiah Crowell is the back that Hue Jackson has name dropped as the ballcarrier that Jackson wants to feature as much as possible. Rookie Matthew Dayes is a nice all-around option who could surprise and eventually usurp Johnson if Johnson can't stay healthy or underperforms, but don't count on it.
Cleveland's defense may show incremental improvement, but expect a lot of second-half deficits for the Browns offense once again in 2017. Even if Crowell earns more targets this year, Johnson remains a strong first-call reserve fantasy owners should target as an RB4/bye-week option. In fact, Johnson performed no worse than an RB4/bye-week option 81 and 88 percent of the time during the past two seasons, so his RB4 ADP matches his RB4/bye-week consistency.
Overvalued
James White appears twice on this list. Last year, he was no worse than an RB4 for 81 percent of the 2016 season. In 2015, White was no worse than an RB4/bye-week option only 50 percent of the time. The difference wasn't LeGarrette Blount, but the health of Dion Lewis. This year, the Patriots have a healthy Lewis and added LeGarrette Blount and Mike Gillislee to the depth chart. Beat writers are betting on Gillislee as of June. Burkhead and Lewis are excellent receivers and arguably more dynamic skill after the catch. Although White has earned that steady praise from players and coaches for the past three years, the team's transactions speaker louder than sound bytes.
White's ADP of 128 (RB44) matches his consistency data from 2016, but I fear that White's existing depth chart competition makes him overvalued compared to Johnson, who offers more upside simply based on the paucity of talent surrounding him on the Browns depth chart compared to the stacked group in New England. Johnson's opportunity for meaningful opportunities appears to be more straightforward and where he thrives matches the scenarios that the Browns defense will likely leave the offense.
I've grown to admire Theo Riddick's game. However, his 92-catch season in 2016 didn't qualify for the list because he only earned 371 receiving yards from that catch total. However, Riddick mad ethe list in 2015 when he earned a share 16.7 percent share of Matthew Stafford's targets while averaging 11.3 points per game.
The differences between Riddick in 2015 and 2016 is injuries. Riddick only played 10 games in 2016 but he was the main back when on the field because Ameer Abdullah was out with a Lis Franc injury. In 2015, Riddick's net stats were better despite splitting time with Abdullah for a full 16-game slate.
The Lions receiving corps was also healthier in 2015 than 2016 and in 2015, Stafford was performing with long time running mate and future Hall of Famer Calvin Johnson. Last year, Marvin Jones played hurt and was still gaining familiarity with his new quarterback and the offense.
If Abdullah plays to his potential and the Lions stay healthy, the Lions could make good on its statement that Abdullah will be the feature back and Riddick's target and yardage percentages drop. However, Abdullah is very much a talented "if" and Riddick has proven that he can deliver consistently as an RB2 (62.5 percent in 2015).
With an 8th-round ADP as RB30, Riddick's value might be a little too high if you think Abdullah has a top-15 season. I love Abdullah's game, but this is a "prove it, or move on' year for the third-year pro. Riddick's round is just low enough that he's a reasonable option in an upside down strategy who has proven he can deliver for fantasy owners in PPR leagues despite working in a shared backfield. Just know you're drafting a proven backup in designated role and you're relying on another player to disappoint.
Cheap Rental With Potential
Despite the acquisition of rookie Jeremy McNichols and the strong performance of Jacquizz Rodgers last year, Charles Sims is the current No. 2 in Tampa and should get a true shot to be the lead back during the first three games of the year in a loaded Tampa Bay offense. In 2015, Sims performed to RB2 standards in nearly 63 percent of his games despite Doug Martin delivering RB1 production.
The biggest reason Sims didn't earn similar production in 2016 were injuries. As RB56 with a 16th-round ADP, Sims is a nice bargain as a three-game lead back who offers rest-of-season starting potential and if Martin suffers an injury upon returning from that layoff.
If Martin returns to form, Sims still produced as no worse than an RB4/bye-week option in 87.5 percent of his 2015 games when Martin was a stud. While there are more weapons in the passing game this year, a 16th-round price tag for a veteran with proven ability who knows the offense is an excellent late-round pick for the depth chart.
Underrated
Danny Woodhead qualifies as a cheap rental despite a much higher price tag of the early 9th round. The difference is that Woodhead will earn significant time with Kenneth Dixon serving a September-long suspension and he replaces a lot of what Kyle Juszczyk, Dennis Pitta, and Steve Smith accounted for last year:
- Juszczyk: 37-266-0
- Pitta: 86-729-2
- Smith: 70-799-5
Risk-Reward
Spencer Ware only accounted for 8.6 percent of Alex Smith's targets in 2016, but he was 4th among NFL backs in yards after the catch, which matches his double-digit yardage and TD shares in the offense. He also turned in fantasy performances that met the elite fantasy back—production that met the yearly average of one of the top 2 RBs in 2016—in 21.4 percent of his games.
Ware met RB3/flex-play tiers in 78.6 percent of his 2016 appearances. He's a low-risk option based on the stats, but the addition of Kareem Hunt could lead to a loss of playing time as soon as this year. With an ADP of the early fifth round as RB18, I'd prefer Ware as an RB3 but his RB2 price tag presents a palpable risk to Ware owners if Hunt earns large enough rookie role to reduce Ware's workload.
I expect Ware to maintain the third down, two-minute, and red zone roles even if Hunt plays well enough this year to earn two-down work. It means that Hunt could split time with Ware without needing to show much as a blocker or receiver early on. However, writing off Ware could be a big mistake if Hunt doesn't look good in August or gets hurt during the year.
If you see a viable strategy where you can front load your starting lineup with early picks at RB, Ware's RB2 price tag is reasonable if taking him as your third RB during the first 4-5 rounds, or you're opting for an upside down strategy where you're seeking talented backs between rounds 5-10 who can deliver consistent weekly production even if their depth chart restricts their upside.
Tevin Coleman is a vastly different runner than Ware in terms of speed and power, but they both figured prominently in their passing games last year and will likely share the backfield this year. Coleman's also had a much higher percentage of RB1-caliber weeks, but when he wasn't a starting-caliber producer (RB1-RB2) he was more likely than Ware to fall below flex-play/RB3 or bye-week/RB4 production. Even so, Coleman had one less sub-par effort.
The production and ADP for Coleman and Ware are similar and the likelihood of both runners splitting time is almost equal. Based on the potential to be the lead back without an injury and continuity of offense and staff, Ware has the slightest edge. Based on the explosiveness of the offense and the two backs' big-play ability, Coleman might deserve the nod. In reality, I'd go with Ware, but a Devonta Freeman injury gives Coleman that huge upside that a Hunt injury won't for Ware. Fantasy trumps reality in this case.
I fully understand why the Seahawks gave Eddie Lacy an incentive-laden deal. When he was on the field last year, Lacy still had the burst, change of direction, and vision of a top starter. Three years ago, Lacy also accounted for nearly 11 percent of Aaron Rodgers' targets in the Green Bay offense. It's not a huge number, but it's not much different than what Sproles and Freeman earned in 2016. Lacy's 2014 receiving TD totals also matched David Johnson's in 2016. Johnson's share within his offense was higher, but the fact that Lacy earned a 10.5 percent figure in a stacked unit should tell you that his receiving prowess should not be overlooked.
Lacy's ADP of 67 as RB25 makes him a high-risk RB3, especially on a depth chart with C.J. Prosise and Thomas Rawls behind a young offensive line that still has to get better tackle play. If Lacy weren't so skilled and playing on a squad with a healthy Russell Wilson, I'd put him in the Over Valued Tier. However, I'm bumping him into the low end of my Risk-Reward section because he's available late in the 6th round. He's not my ideal as an RB3 in drafts where he'll be the last option I take at the position until after the 10th round, but I'll consider him as an Upside-Down pack if he's one of 5 backs I take between rounds 5-12.
Just A Notch Below Great
Freeman makes Coleman's role in Atlanta because he's so skilled between the tackles and it forces linebackers to account for Freeman inside before accounting for Coleman's satellite role. It's not a knock on Coleman, just a reality of their roles in the offense last year. It's Coleman's explosive skill in space and competence as a receiver that places a ceiling on Freeman's upside.
Even so, Freeman produced at the fantasy RB2 tier in nearly 87 percent of his games and 2 of every 3 games reached elite tier production. In fact, Freeman accounted for a slightly higher percentage of passing yardage than Coleman last year whereas Coleman earned a higher percentage of touchdowns. This matches the on-field strategy, too. Atlanta loved to threaten defenses with Freeman near the red zone only to deliver short flare to a wide open Coleman for easier scores.
The difference between Freeman and the top tier is essentially 1-2 games. He's a fine starter and well worth is selection as the 10th pick in leagues and RB5 even with Coleman in the rotation. The fact that Atlanta wants to re-sign Freeman with Coleman's deal expiring next year tells you that the organization also knows which back truly powers this ground game. If Coleman gets hurt, Freeman becomes an instant fantasy stud.
Studs
Woodhead's absence allowed Gordon the opportunity to prove that he can get open and catch the ball. Gordon's 6 percent share of Rivers' touchdowns versus Woodhead's 21 percent mark in 2015 indicates that the Chargers used the threat of Gordon in the run game to set up the tight ends and receivers on red zone passes. Despite the fact that Gordon isn't a primary target in the Chargers' passing game, his 41 catches are a nice bonus for a player who delivered RB1-tier fantasy production 77 percent of the time in 2016 and no worse than RB2-tier production for 85 percent of the season. There's little reason to expect similar or better production from Gordon in 2017.
DeMarco Murray's 2014 season with the Cowboys was 22.57 point-per-game PPR season where he never performed worse than the fantasy RB2 tier. By the end of 2015, most considered that final year in Dallas as Murray's career peak and he was little more than a speed bump for Derrick Henry's career ascent with the Titans.
Murray's 2014 season in Dallas may prove to be that peak year, Philadephia's trough was not a sign of things to come. Last year, Murray rebounded nicely from the debacle with the Eagles. He scored 18.2 fantasy points per game and he performed as a fantasy RB1 in 75 percent of his games and no worse than an RB2 for 88 percent of those contests. His receiving production was 23 yards shy of the minimums for the query but based last year and 2015's stats, expect another strong year from Murray as an all-around weapon who doesn't cede significant targets to Henry or the rookie receivers.
LeVeon Bell had a 2014 season where he was an RB1 every week of the year. That figure dipped to 73 percent in 2016, but he was no worse than an RB2 for 80 percent of his 14-game season, and his elite production was nearly as strong as Freeman and David Johnson. Working with an excellent veteran quarterback, a top primary receiver, a talented secondary big-play threat, and a strong offensive line, there are no significant obstacles to stop Bell from earning similar production in 2017.
Johnson's elite-tier production percentage (68.8 percent) is the highest of the backs significant pass production on this list. I would expect a minor decline in target, yardage, and touchdown shares in 2017 if John Brown stays healthy because Carson Palmer had to check-down more often without a strong vertical game and pressure routinely reaching the pocket. Even so, Johnson's skill as a route runner, receiver, and big-play ballcarrier make him an easy top-three option at his position.
Next Article: Wide Receivers, Production Shares, And Consistency
