The FPC and the Action Scoring Rule

Photo: USA Today Sports

Footballguys continues to advance the world of fantasy football. With several additions to their offerings last year, the much heralded Best Online Content Site for 2009 joined the world of High Stakes Fantasy contests and made an instant splash. Joe Bryant and David Dodds teamed with David Gerczak and Alex Kaganovsky of the Fantasy Football Players Championship (myffpc.com) to create the first annual Footballguys Players Championship contest in 2010 and by all measures it was a huge success. Now the FPC and FFPC are back again for their fifth season, ready to knock it out of the park once again in 2014.

By studying the rules of both the FFPC and the FPC along with some of the history and previous performances by FPC players, insights can be found that will help many players to not only compete well in both contests but also to be in a position to win their league and be in the running for a top prize in the championship round.

As the summer rolls on, I will continue analyzing many aspects of the Footballguys Players Championship and the Fantasy Football Players Championship. Through these articles I hope to provide extra help with fully understanding how to best build a top notch fantasy team within the contest. As someone who has competed against the best players in the world and in several contests much like the FPC and the FFPC, I fully understand how every possible advantage and extra edge can make all the difference in the world.

ACTION SCORING

Under the microscope this time around is the special Action Scoring Rule for position players. According the rules of the Footballguys Players Championship, the scoring rules for Action Scoring are implemented as follows:

Roster/Scoring:

• Action scoring is implemented for all TDs: any TD scored by a player is scored as 6 points to that individual player, in addition to any D/ST scoring that may apply.

So how do you analyze the impact of this additional scoring rule to the current crop of potential fantasy players? We need to dig into some numbers.

First, let's take a look at the 2013 production for kick returners (kickoffs and punts). Listed in Table 1 are all the NFL players who had at least 10 kick returns of either type last year (with a special thanks to Doug Drinen's Pro-Football-Reference.com for the data):

Table 1: 2013 NFL Kick Returners (Minimum 10 Returns)

A few things can be observed from this list. First, there are plenty of return men that are being utilized across the NFL. Over 65 players had 10 or more returns last season, and 43 had 20 or more. Another important fact is that several of these specialists are not only non-starters for several teams, but they are also non-offensive players. That really will not help fantasy teams.

The other item to pick up on here is that roughly 20-30 of these players are draftable fantasy players (highlighted in Table 1). That's the good news here - these are the players that might benefit from Action Scoring this season. Unfortunately, there is also a bit of bad news.

The first downside to this list is that several of these players are moving up the depth charts of their teams this year. Why is that a bad thing? Well, take Keenan Allen for example. Few franchises will ever want to risk a high upside starting wide receiver as a kick returner. The added workload and the increased risk of injury are both too great a price to pay for potential yardage gains. Teams take a more conservative approach over 90% of the time and put a lesser talent back there, especially for kickoffs.

The other piece of bad news is that yardage does not matter in Action Scoring - only touchdowns make any impact to the fantasy scores. Table 2 shows that only 20 total returns (13 kickoffs, 7 punts) were taken all the way for the score last year – or less than two per NFL week. That number is lower than the last four years, with 2010 (13 kickoffs, 23 punts) being the closest comparable.  Last season there were 28 touchdowns (12 kickoffs, 16 punts), lower than 2013 and 2010 but right in line with the 2009 and 2011 results for 28 kick return scores. Here is the full list of 2013 touchdown returners:

 Table 2: 2013 NFL Kick Return Touchdowns

Based on the results, it becomes clear just how rare a kick return for a touchdown is these days. Further, only four players last season managed to find the end zone more than once (also four in 2011 and 2012, nine in 2010 and six in 2009). There is at least a little bit of good news - one of those players is worthy of a draft pick this season. For Cordarrelle Patterson, this is a hidden boost to his value, but right how his lofty ADP is already asking quite a bit of optimism to draft him in Round 4 or 5 as a WR2.  Other than Patterson, there is not much point in considering anyone for a considerable Action Scoring boost - and even two scores for him is not much upside.

PARTING THOUGHTS

Every fantasy league and its rulebook is a little different. For the FPC and the FFPC, the addition of Action Scoring may seem at first to have very little impact on the scores overall, but in certain circumstances it can impact several players' values. Key return men that are expected to be top picks such as Cordarrelle Patterson and Percy Harvin should get a little bit of a boost to their overall ADP thanks to this extra touchdown (or a few) per season. Even Antonio Brown, DeSean Jackson and Keenan Allen get minimal bumps here despite many expectations that they will not be returning kicks much longer. Rest assured that if it is just before halftime or towards the end of a close game, either Allen, Jackson or Brown may find himself back there to field that key kickoff or punt return.

The tricky part of evaluating the rest of the kick returners comes after these first 4-5 guys are off the board. Knile Davis and Jacoby Jones are decent backups, but can they really be relied upon as spot starters? They are certainly worth drafting and if injuries or bye weeks hit, their clutch performances may give lucky owners an advantage in just the right week thanks to the Action Scoring added value. While they are not worthy of big bumps up the draft board, their added value as return men with a history of touchdowns should be a nice tiebreaker if someone is deciding between Davis, Jones or another running back or wide receiver.

The last comment I will add is more of a warning - do not be surprised if a few of these players see fewer kick return chances as they develop into regular offensive starters. Keenan Allen and Cordarrelle Patterson are both likely to be replaced by depth players to give them both a rest and less chance of getting hurt. Keep that in mind if you are factoring in kick return value to a particular player. Turnover at both kick return spots can be quite high.

It takes a little time to get your mind wrapped around a new contest with a new set of rules, but the time spent is often well worth it if the goal is to field a competitive team. Giving a little bit of effort to get a greater understanding of the twists and turns to the rulebook can give turn a good fantasy player into a great one and a great player into a dominant force. Knowledge is power - so be as powerful as you can!

Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.

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