For The Win: Week 6

Photo: USA Today Sports

Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season, I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.

And the fun continues.  Granted I went 3-2 in Picks of the Week and 9-5 overall for the 14 games last week, but oh, what could have been.  If Pittsburgh does what they were supposed to do and the Tampa Bay / New England game scores like they should have, all of my teasers hit – even the 11-team play – and this is a very different column if those two things that were supposed to happen actually do.  But as they say, that is why they have grandiose, luxury hotels and casinos in Las Vegas (best wishes to those in that area). 

So I have to take the silver linings away from Week 5, learn more from it and press on.  Let’s get the right games in these teasers shall we?  This week is a lot different with much bigger spreads, but as I have mentioned before, most teams either win outright or cover the number.  According to my records for this season, the point spread only mattered in 16 of 67 games (24%) – the rest of the games were either favorites covering the number (27) or outright wins by the underdog (22). (Two games were pushes).  With that in mind, I will be focusing more on picking the winners than covering the number. Here we go:  

Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.

Teams on a Bye Week – Buffalo, Cincinnati, Dallas, Seattle

Teams coming off of a Bye Week – Atlanta, Denver, New Orleans, Washington

(Thursday) CAROLINA (-3) vs. PHILADELPHIA
Week 6 kicks off with arguably the best game of the week with two 4-1 teams squaring off on a short week.  The Eagles have just one loss on the year, and it was on the road against the 5-0 Chiefs, but some of their wins (Giants, Chargers both 0-5, Arizona and Washington just two wins each) were against iffy opposition.  Regardless, 4-1 is 4-1, and Philadelphia has looked good all year.  That cannot be said for the Panthers, who finally woke up on offense two weeks ago against New England then continued that last week in Detroit.  This game is really a toss-up, but I am leaning towards the home team on the short week with advantages in the passing game against the Eagles’ weaker secondary.  Throw in the loss of right tackle Lane Johnson for Philadelphia and I really start to favor Carolina. The game could go either way so I am not big on playing either side.  PICK: Panthers

BALTIMORE (-6) vs. CHICAGO
Well, I come away from the likely best game of the week to talking Bears-Ravens.  Such is life in the NFL.  This game could easily be a “Justin Tucker special”, which back in the day used to be a “Matt Stover story” – which means Baltimore defense and field goals.  Mitch Trubisky looked good against the Vikings on Monday Night Football, but this is a shorter week and a road game for the rookie.  I expect an ugly contest, something like 22-9 Ravens.   PICK: Ravens

ATLANTA (-11) vs. MIAMI
The Falcons come off of their bye week and get another bye with a home game against the Dolphins.  I am half-joking, but part of me says that this game is over by halftime.  Matt Ryan and Julio Jones should build an early lead and then the run game for Atlanta closes this out, along with a likely Pick 6 of Jay Cutler.  Falcons 37, Dolphins 13.  PICK: Falcons

GREEN BAY (-3) at MINNESOTA
The Packers are riding high after the late game heroics in Dallas last week, but they have to turn the page quickly with another road game this Sunday.  A divisional matchup lies ahead with the Vikings, who barely beat the Bears on Monday Night Football on the road in a lackluster 20-17 performance.  Sam Bradford had that “deer in headlights” look I remember so well from his Philadelphia days, and Case Keenum had to pick up the pieces and get the victory over Chicago in relief of Bradford.   The Packers have a thin secondary, but their running game (by committee) is gaining steam and the Vikings do not have the talent to beat the Green Bay weakness, especially if Stefon Diggs (groin) is not at full strength.  PICK: Packers

NEW ORLEANS (-5) vs. DETROIT
This one has all the makings of a shootout, but picking out how this plays out is not a straightforward recipe.  The Saints just took care of Miami in London then took a week off to rest up.  Meanwhile the Lions dropped another game at home to Carolina as Cam Newton beat them both running and passing all day against their defense.   The matchup for Drew Brees at home could be tricky as the Lions have seven interceptions on the season, but none in the past two contests.  With Willie Snead back in the mix and having two weeks to prepare for this game, I am strongly favoring the Saints at home to get out to an early lead and hold on with Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara closing it out. PICK: Saints

NEW ENGLAND (-9.5) vs. NEW YORK JETS
Tom Brady may be banged up (and so is Rob Gronkowski, most likely) – but the Jets are on their third string running back in Elijah McGuire  and Josh McCown cannot pick apart that New England defense like Cam Newton or Deshaun Watson.  New England and the Jets are longtime rivals, but I think the Patriots are strong enough to beat a 3-2 Jets team that has some pretty soft victories on the young season.  PICK: Patriots

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (+10) at WASHINGTON
Washington is coming off of their bye week, but there are many reasons I can see the 49ers making this a closer contest than expected.  First, Pro Bowl cornerback Josh Norman is out for a month, and Pierre Garcon is returning to town to face his most recently departed team for the first time.  Brian Hoyer nearly pulled off the victory in Indianapolis (overtime loss) last week with his second 300-yard passing game in three weeks.  San Francisco has two options now in the backfield with Carlos Hyde getting pushed by Matt Breida, and young tight end George Kittle had his best game of his career.  I am just shy of calling for the straight out upset, but it would not surprise me at all.  PICK: 49ers

HOUSTON (-9.5) vs. CLEVELAND
The Browns have chanced quarterbacks – again.  Now we have Kevin Hogan starting for Cleveland, going on the road to visit the Texans .Granted Houston will be without J.J. Watt, but the Texans just put up 34 points on the Chiefs, albeit several of those later scores were with Kansas City playing prevent defense.  No matter though, as the Texans have a great matchup for both Deshaun Watson and also Lamar Miller to run all day against Cleveland.  I see this one as a likely double digit blowout where only a backdoor cover (bad beat / late score in garbage time) would have the Browns blowing up this pick.  Then again, they are the Browns.  I still like the odds with the Texans to win big, 41-17.  PICK:  Texans

ARIZONA (+2) vs. TAMPA BAY
Everyone wants to talk about the Adrian Peterson trade, but guess what – it doesn’t matter!  The Cardinals and the Buccaneers are both elite run defenses (under 3.5 YPC for both) so this game is all about the passing options.  Arizona’s Carson Palmer will throw it around to his four top options (Larry Fitzgerald, Jaron Brown, John Brown and J.J. Nelson) but good luck guessing who has the best production.  Tampa Bay’s passing defense is not very good at all (8.6 yards per attempt – Bottom 10) so it looks good for Palmer, but Jameis Winston will also have to throw against a middle of the road Arizona pass defense.  Mike Evans will be blanketed by Patrick Peterson, but the rest of the targets (DeSean Jackson, TE Cameron Brate) should see plenty of targets.  Overall I like Arizona’s passing game and pass defense a little more than DeSean Jackson’s upside, so give me the Cardinals at home as an underdog.  PICK: Cardinals

LOS ANGELES RAMS (+2.5) at JACKSONVILLE   
I get it.  Your star running back fumbles at the goal line and you not only lose a scoring chance but the ball as well – but you decide to scrap giving the ball to your best player?  I mean, I get that Gurley had 14 total carries for the day, but Jared Goff throwing 47 times in a 16-10 contest feels like it was way out of balance.  I expect that to dramatically change this week for the Rams, as they face the best passing defense in Jacksonville but also one of the worst run defenses in the NFL.  Gurley should have a strong performance, but Leonard Fournette will also have a strong matchup and be looking to continue his five game scoring streak since joining the league this year.  Neither defense is dominant, but I think Los Angeles offers more on offense to take this one on the road.  PICK: Rams

KANSAS CITY (-4) vs. PITTSBURGH
When your star quarterback wonders aloud about retirement after his last game, it is time to sound the alarms.  Now we all know that postgame comments are not really worth that much, especially from players, but if Ben Roethlisberger has that much lack of confidence in himself before heading out on the road to face the lonely undefeated team in the league, well, if that does not give you some pause in picking the Steelers then I don’t know what will.  Kansas City has proven to be the best team in the league so far, and hosting a Pittsburgh team after a bad loss certainly looks like a path towards a 6-0 start.  The Steelers have given up over 500 yards rushing in the past three weeks, so this screams for a big day for Kareem Hunt.  Pittsburgh can put up a fight against anyone, but for now I am sticking with the undefeated home team in a good spot.  PICK: Chiefs 

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (+3) at OAKLAND
Let’s see – is E.J. Manuel going to be the quarterback this week for Oakland?  If so, I see the Chargers getting their first win in this spot.  Oakland has been suspect against pass catching running backs (17-254-1 this season), which really hints that their run defense is way worse than their average 4.1 YPC against would make you believe.  The Raiders are bad overall against the pass (even Joe Flacco was hitting bombs to Mike Wallace last week) so look for Tyrell Williams or Travis Benjamin to score a long touchdown.  The Chargers are better than 1-4, while E.J. Manuel is just terrible.  I do not think Derek Carr is ready to play just yet, but I like the Chargers in this spot with Oakland not at full strength.  

Update – now it looks like Derek Carr may give it a go. I still like the Chargers and the passing game against Oakland, but if Carr is 100% this is likely to be a much closer contest.  PICK: Chargers

DENVER (-12) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
A word of advice if you are in the greater New York City area and used to be a wide receiver in college – the Giants may be calling you soon.  They have had the worst luck when it comes to receivers, as four of their top five options were all injured this past week, leaving only Roger Lewis as the only active and healthy wide receiver to finish the Week 5 contest against the Chargers.  Now the Giants head out west to take on the well-rested Broncos, coming off of their bye week and with their only two defensive weaknesses are against good running games and strong tight ends.  The Giants have next to nothing when it comes to a run game, and their rookie tight end (Evan Engram) had zero catches in Week 5 despite every wide receiver but one getting hurt.  The implied point total for the Giants is 12, one of the lowest I have ever seen.  It is quite possible that both C.J. Anderson and Brandon McManus both hit that number as the Broncos roll all over the Giants, 30-10.  PICK:  Broncos  

(Monday) TENNESSEE (no line) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Las Vegas (and other Sportsbooks) have not listed any lines for this contest of yet, with both Andrew Luck (out) and Marcus Mariota (questionable) unlikely to be under center this week.  Two weaker defenses face off against two teams that struggle to move the ball on offense without their star quarterbacks.  So what to do?  I say go with the best run game, and that is the Titans, although Jacoby Brissett did look very good last week.  Overall I say “steer clear” of this contest, at least until we get more clarity later in the week, but overall I have a slight lean towards Brissett and T.Y. Hilton over any form of offense led by Matt Cassel.  PICK: Colts 

BEST BETS

Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.

• ATLANTA (-11) vs. MIAMI
• GREEN BAY (-3) at MINNESOTA
• NEW ORLEANS (-5) vs. DETROIT
• NEW ENGLAND (-9.5) vs. NEW YORK JETS
• SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (+10) at WASHINGTON
• HOUSTON (-9.5) vs. CLEVELAND
• ARIZONA (+2) vs. TAMPA BAY
• LOS ANGELES RAMS (+2.5) at JACKSONVILLE   
• KANSAS CITY (-4) vs. PITTSBURGH
• DENVER (-12) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS   
• (Monday) INDIANAPOLIS (no line) at TENNESSEE
• NEW ORLEANS vs. DETROIT (OVER 49.5)

•  (Thursday) PHILADELPHIA (“FOR THE WIN” +160) at CAROLINA
• SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (“FOR THE WIN” +400) at WASHINGTON

• 6-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (6.1-1 ODDS):

• LOS ANGELES RAMS (+8.5) at JACKSONVILLE   
• KANSAS CITY (+2) vs. PITTSBURGH
• DENVER (-6) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS   
• HOUSTON (-3.5) vs. CLEVELAND
• NEW ORLEANS vs. DETROIT (OVER 43.5)
• NEW ENGLAND (-3.5) vs. NEW YORK JETS

** TWO STAR GAMES **

• 6-POINT TEASER:  NEW ORLEANS (+1) vs. DETROIT (OVER 43.5)

• 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (2.65-1 ODDS):

• LOS ANGELES RAMS (+8.5) at JACKSONVILLE   
• KANSAS CITY (+2) vs. PITTSBURGH
• DENVER (-6) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS   
• HOUSTON (-3.5) vs. CLEVELAND  

• 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (4.10-1 ODDS):

• LOS ANGELES RAMS (+8.5) at JACKSONVILLE   
• KANSAS CITY (+2) vs. PITTSBURGH
• DENVER (-6) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS   
• HOUSTON (-3.5) vs. CLEVELAND
• NEW ORLEANS vs. DETROIT (OVER 43.5)

*** THREE STAR GAMES ***

• 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (1.65-1 ODDS):

• LOS ANGELES RAMS (+8.5) at JACKSONVILLE   
• KANSAS CITY (+2) vs. PITTSBURGH
• DENVER (-6) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS    

PICK(S) OF THE WEEK:  Atlanta, Green Bay, New Orleans, San Francisco, Houston, Arizona, Los Angeles Rams, Kansas City, Denver, New Orleans / Detroit (Over 49.5)

RESULTS

Last Week

• OVERALL: 9-5 (64.3%)
• BEST BETS (STARS): 5-18-1 (21.7%)
• PICK OF WEEK: 3-2 (60%)

Season

• OVERALL: 35-41-1 (46.1%)
• BEST BETS (STARS): 33.5-86-2 (28.0%)
• PICK OF WEEK: 17-17-1 (50%)

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com