For The Win: Week 3

Photo: USA Today Sports

Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season, I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.

For the second week in a row, I struggled, plain and simple.  I got caught some with Sam Bradford not playing on Sunday, but that was not the sole reason for a bad Week 2.  The good news is that I was 5-3 in by Picks of the Week.  That’s a silver lining on a bleak start to the season.  Time to refocus, retrench and figure out how things are going to go.  This should get easier as we go, and there’s definitely some games I like this week.  Let’s get started.

I’m also going to try and keep things very simple this week, and if I can find one key number to use to make my decision, that’s where I am going.  Let’s see how that works.

Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.

(Thursday) LOS ANGELES RAMS (-2) at SAN FRANCISCO
The Rams are 1-1 and I believe that they should have beaten Washington last week.  The short week (and short travel) should not hurt them as they head to northern California to face the 0-2 49ers.  The simple stat for me is this – The Rams have a +30 point differential (66-36) in two games, while San Francisco is -23 (12-35).  Sure San Francisco faced Carolina and Seattle, but 12 points (and no touchdowns) is just not very good at all.  Rams win by a touchdown or more.  PICK: Rams

JACKSONVILLE (+4) “home” against BALTIMORE (in London, England)
Wembley Stadium hosts the Jaguars in their annual trip across the pond to jolly old England this week, and this time they host the Baltimore Ravens, one of eight NFL teams that has never played a regular season contest in England.  Aside from the familiarity for Jacksonville, the Ravens just lost two lineman in Week 2, losing RG Marshall Yanda (broken leg) for the year and DT Brandon Williams for several weeks.  Jacksonville become “Sacksonville” against Houston and could do similar things to Joe Flacco this week.  Baltimore’s defense is good, but without Williams and with other injuries, I am leaning towards Jacksonville here in a tight contest.  PICK: Jaguars

DENVER (-3) at BUFFALO
This is all about the optics to me.  Denver played well early against the Chargers and held on for a home win in Week 1, and then they pummeled the Cowboys in Week 2 behind a surprisingly balanced offense.  Buffalo beat the Jets and then scored three points on the road 9-3 to Carolina.  I see Denver as several notches higher on the NFL food chain, and the three points to me seems laughable.  Denver by at least a touchdown, and probably much more. PICK: Broncos

PITTSBURGH (-7.5) at CHICAGO
Pittsburgh is 2-0 and big point spreads are not frightening me.  So far only six underdogs have covered the numbers this year by my count in a loss (and seven have won outright), so I will take my chances on the Steelers to move to 3-0 and the Bears to fall to 0-3.  Not overthinking this one.  PICK: Steelers

ATLANTA (-3) at DETROIT
This game could definitely turn into a shootout, but we saw how the easily the Falcons took care of a very good Green Bay team on Sunday Night Football.  Detroit may be 2-0, just like Atlanta, but the Cardinals at home and a visit to the Giants feels like a much easier start to the season for the Lions.  Atlanta has an extra day of rest as well, and I will take the better team in all phases of the game on a fast track.  PICK: Falcons

CLEVELAND (EVEN) at INDIANAPOLIS
Two 0-2 teams meet in Indianapolis this week, and while the Colts looked a little better in Week 2, Cleveland has more talent and Andrew Luck is still not suiting up for Indianapolis.  Until such time, I will continue to pick against the Colts.  PICK: Browns

MINNESOTA vs. TAMPA BAY (OFF)
Sam Bradford is due back this week, so the Vikings passing game could be very close to Tampa Bay’s offensive output.  Where the Vikings have advantages are in top cornerback and coverage (Xavier Rhodes on Mike Evans), which will go a long way to making this a ground-based offensive game.  Dalvin Cook is the best running back in this game, so that is where I am going, along with the home team’s side.  PICK: Vikings

NEW ENGLAND (-13) vs. HOUSTON
The Texans just got their first win on the road in Cincinnati, but Foxboro is several lightyears away from the home of the Bengals.  Houston should feel good at getting to 1-1, but until Tom Brady and Mike Gillslee start to slow down, I will just keep taking the Patriots and expect them to cover a big number.  Plus, New England owes their home crowd a victory after a bad loss to open the season.  PICK: Patriots

MIAMI (-6) at NEW YORK JETS
Miami should feel quite fortunate to get a win last week against the Chargers, who fell to 0-2 thanks to two missed field goals in the final moments of each contest.  The Dolphins are still knocking dust off of their offense, but there is no better recipe for that these days than a date with the Jets.  Even though these two have a long divisional rival history, I just do not see this as anything of a close contest at all.  Miami by double digits with Jay Ajayi having a big day.  PICK: Dolphins

PHILADELPHIA (-5) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
The Eagles are 1-1 after a tough loss at Kansas City, while the Giants are a certifiable train wreck at 0-2, not just because Odell Beckham Jr has not played a down yet, but because their offensive line is in shambles.  The Eagles have a strong front four and they should continue Eli Manning’s “Run for Your Life” tour in 2017.  Not much more analysis needed after that as the Eagles and Giants are nearly tied in points against (44 to 43) but Philadelphia is way ahead in scoring (50-13).  The truth, and the scoreboard, likely lies in between for this week. A win for the Eagles this week would be huge for Philadelphia, as they would not only go up to 2-1, they would be 2-0 in the NFC East while the Giants would fall to 0-3, and 0-2 in the division.  Eagles 27, Giants 13.  PICK: Eagles 

CAROLINA (-6) vs. NEW ORLEANS
Quick – name the team that has given up the most points in the first two weeks of the season.  If you said the Jets, you would be correct, but who is just one point behind (or ahead)?  That would be the New Orleans Saints, who have been torched by both Minnesota (29) and New England (36).  Carolina is 2-0 somehow despite only scoring 32 points this season, so a big hat tip goes to the defense that has given up only a field goal in each of their first two contests.  New Orleans heads to Charlotte for their first outdoor game, and that is usually not great news for a team that loves a fast track.  Cam Newton may not have had a good game yet, but the path towards one in Week 3 looks incredibly attractive.  Throw in the Panthers’ strong defense and I see Carolina getting a big home win in the NFC South to move to 3-0 on Sunday.  PICK:  Panthers

TENNESSEE (-2.5) vs. SEATTLE 
The late slate of games on Sunday is pretty short given that all 32 teams are in action, but only three afternoon games are on the docket for 4PM(-ish) starts on the East Coast.  The first one has Seattle traveling nearly across the country to visit the Titans, as two 1-1 teams square off come Sunday afternoon.  Seattle’s offense looks sluggish at best and can be honestly characterized as bad so far based on their first two performances.  Tennessee has a good loss on their record (home against Oakland) while Seattle’s loss in Green Bay also feels respectable.  The problem for the Seahawks is how close they came to losing at home to San Francisco, which should not even happen when Seattle visits the 49ers. Looking at both teams, their defenses are respectable, but the offense for the Titans looks way better than what Russell Wilson has been able to do for the Seahawks so far.  So for now, take the home Titans for the win by more than a field goal.  PICK: Titans

GREEN BAY (-9) vs. CINCINNATI
Green Bay did not look great against Atlanta on Sunday Night Football, but that was possibly a perfect storm against them in Week 2.  Atlanta had their home opener in a brand new stadium with a national television audience, and their offense was humming right from the first drive.  After a turnover or two, the game got out of hand for the Packers, so I can give them a pass there.  Cincinnati is a brushfire that is still looking for the end zone this season, and I put the odds at even money that they find it in Week 3.  Let’s boil this down – the Bengals have scored 9 points and given up 33, while Green Bay is 40 and 43, respectively.  Aaron Rodgers should lead several teammates into Lambeau Leaps all afternoon against Cincinnati.  Green Bay by 13 or more in a laugher.  PICK: Packers

KANSAS CITY (-3) at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
Is Vegas cruel?  Why would the Chargers be getting exactly THREE points this week?  They have lost by a missed field goal in both of their first two games this season, and now Las Vegas is giving them three points of a head start this week.  If only that were reality for the Chargers, and could also apply to Week 1 and Week 2.  Well, that is not the case unfortunately, and I like the Chiefs to use plenty of Kareem Hunt, Tareek Hill and Travis Kelce against the Chargers to win – by more than three.  Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen may be productive here, but Kansas City is a much better team overall right now.  Chiefs by double digits before a sparse Los Angeles “crowd” that could be leaving early.   PICK:  Chiefs

OAKLAND (-3) at WASHINGTON
Sunday Night Football will feature the Raiders visiting Washington, but I really do not trust this point spread.  Washington should not be favored at all, but only getting three points?  Have you not seen these two teams play this season?  Washington barely managed a late win against the Rams in Los Angeles last week, while Oakland looked like they were completely unstoppable against the Jets (okay, yes, the Jets, I know) in Week 2. The bigger tell is that the Raiders won in Tennessee in Week 1 and that is despite Amari Cooper being allergic to touchdown receptions (he dropped four of them).  I have not even mentioned that Jordan Reed is banged up again (yes, this is a recording) and that Kirk Cousins may not earn that big payday he was expecting if he keeps this up.  Washington is not on the same level as Oakland, and I expect them to be smoked on Sunday night football, which will likely embarrass their owner once again.  PICK: Raiders

(Monday) DALLAS (-3) at ARIZONA
I am going to make this simple once again.  Dallas is younger and has more talent than the Cardinals on both sides of the ball.  The Cowboys were just embarrassed before a large (Sunday afternoon) audience in Denver last week, and Ezekiel Elliott did next to nothing in that game.  I expect this to be “The Zeke Show” on Monday, especially with his quarterback with a tweaked ankle.  Arizona’s statue of Carson Palmer is still in the same place as you normally find it, about seven yards behind center, and that is where you will likely find at least one or two Dallas defenders on Monday evening.  Dallas wins big and gets back on the winning track, something like 27-10.  PICK: Cowboys

BEST BETS

Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.

• (Thursday) LOS ANGELES RAMS (-2) at SAN FRANCISCO
• DENVER (-3) at BUFFALO
• PITTSBURGH (-7.5) at CHICAGO
• ATLANTA (-3) at DETROIT
• CLEVELAND (EVEN) at INDIANAPOLIS
• MIAMI (-6) at NEW YORK JETS
• PHILADELPHIA (-5) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
• CAROLINA (-6) vs. NEW ORLEANS
• TENNESSEE (-2.5) vs. SEATTLE 
• GREEN BAY (-9) vs. CINCINNATI
• KANSAS CITY (-3) at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
• OAKLAND (-3) at WASHINGTON
• OAKLAND at WASHINGTON (UNDER 54)
• (Monday) DALLAS (-3) at ARIZONA  

RESULTS

Last Week

• OVERALL: 6-10 (37.5%)
• BEST BETS (STARS): 8.5-17 (33.3%)
• PICK OF WEEK: 5-3  (62.5%)

Season

• OVERALL: 12-20 (37.5%)
• BEST BETS (STARS): 11.5-34 (25.3%)
• PICK OF WEEK: 7-7 (50%)

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

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