The Way This Works...
Late-week injuries, suspensions, and unexpected coaching decisions with personnel can upend a fantasy lineup.
We developed this feature to give you resources to help weather the potential loss of players and get ahead of free-agent bidding wars by getting an early shot at the future fantasy flavor of the week.
As the author of the most comprehensive scouting analysis of skill players since 2006, I'm one of those resources—especially for players at the bottom of depth charts, practice squad hopefuls, and even the occasional case of the guy training at home with dreams of that phone call from an NFL team.
Every week, I'll walk you through the shortlist of players who will get their shot to contribute as replacements for players falling victim to unexpected late-week events.
I won't be updating this piece over the weekend, but you'll get the goods on players worth consideration, and based on the past three years, this column offered a lot of quality short-term and long-term options — many of them as preemptive picks.
This is a partial list, but you get the point.
We'll examine three types of replacements:
- Players who get immediate playing time.
- Preemptive additions from your league's waiver wire.
- Options worth monitoring in case the established backup eventually misses time.
Many of these players are late-round picks and street-free agents. I'm not giving you obvious waiver candidates that will command a large percentage of your FAAB dollars. These are options you'll often find in your First-Come, First-Serve section during the latter part of the week prior to kickoff.
If you think street-free agents won't be factors, Ty'Son Williams from Week 1 last year is on Line 1 waiting for you to pick up. Craig Reynolds is on Line 2. Boston Scott is waiting patiently on Line 3. They each have a long list of players before them who would like to make an appointment to set you straight. James Robinson would like to tell you about his 2020 campaign. And Raheem Mostert has time on his hands if you need a deeper consultation.
The Week 1 Review
The Replacements doesn't officially begin until Week 2, but in late August I always post an article on waiver-wire candidates and how and when to act with them. I use a partial list of players from that article who are likely to commodities this week to start the running list of suggested options.
I'll update this throughout the season so you have a wealth of considerations beyond my weekly recommendations.
- Jordan Mason: I mentioned in two different articles in the past 2-3 weeks that you should add Mason if you have Christian McCaffrey or if McCaffrey shows up on the injury report with a tag of questionable or worse. Now you know why.
- Allen Lazard: Fantasy analysts may minimize Lazard's rest-of-season value due to his age and the attention Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams should eventually command from Aaron Rodgers. However, Rodgers has the most rapport with Lazard, he performed well in camp behind the scenes, and Rodgers demands talent that can be on the same page. Also, do you trust Mike Williams to stay healthy? I don't.
- Dawson Knox: Knox is an excellent athlete who can win jump-balls. He's a good blocker, and that's likely his role as long as Dalton Kincaid is healthy. But there have been multiple indications--including Week 1--that Knox will still have a legitimate role in the passing game. Look for Kincaid to get going, but Knox will be worth consideration in your lineups if weak at tight end--at least until he proves otherwise.
- Andrei Iosivas: An excellent athlete from Princeton, Iosivas knew next to nothing about running routes but sought out receiver coach Drew Lieberman during the offseason. His game has grown substantially during the offseason because, according to Lieberman, Iosivas had no bad habits to unlearn. With a week under his belt as a starter, look for Cincinnati's offense to look better in Week 2.
Add Now: Alec Pierce
The Skinny on Pierce: An early-round pick three years ago who impressed in training camp, Pierce failed to capitalize on that billing during the past two regular seasons. A quarterback carousel is a legitimate reason why, even if most have written him off.
When the national broadcast crew covering the Colts-Texans game asked Anthony Richardson who the public should watch heading into the contest, Richardson mentioned Pierce. He said that Pierce has been written off but the reason he's a forgotten man is because Richardson was hurt. Richardson said he was going to change that perception of Pierce.
Three catches later, including a 60-yard touchdown and a contested downfield grab in tight coverage, Richardson at least got our attention that Pierce is a player to once again have on our fantasy radar.
Yes, Adonai Mitchell had a better Separation Score, but that metric lacks the nuance of film information to incorporate the Mitchell stumbled during one of his two deep targets that cost him a chance at a catch. Instead, the Metric Guys presumed Richardson missed Mitchell.
Pierce made a tough grab. Pierce was the guy Richardson mentioned pregame. Pierce converted on all three targets coming his way.
Recommendation: Josh Downs is at least another week away. Michael Pittman is the primary object of attention from defenses. Mitchell is a rookie learning his way. Add Pierce to the back of your roster because he's a low-risk option with high reward, who is getting opportunities right now.
Add Now: Jalen Nailor
The Skinny on Nailor: Nailor has been a favorite pet project of the Vikings for the past two seasons. He has a game that resembles former teammate Jayden Reed's, and he had a strong enough 2024 offseason to earn the No.3 role in the passing game.
Jordan Addison has not practiced this week, and his availability is in question. Although Nailor only earned one target last week, he converted it for a 29-yard score.
Nailor has speed, zone skills, and the ability to win after the catch.
Recommendation: Opposing defenses have their hands full with Justin Jefferson. Nailor should see targets based on Jefferson's commanding presence. The 49ers gave up 6 catches for 89 yards and 2 scores to Allen Lazard, a zone-route specialist. They have up 6 catches 60 yards to Garrett Wilson, a strong YAC producer.
Speedy zone options with YAC skills have success against the 49ers' defense. Last year, Marquise Brown, Addison, Ja'Marr Chase, DeVonta Smith, A.J. Brown, Tyler Lockett, and Zay Flowers were examples.
So did slower possession types who do good work in zone coverage: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Christian Kirk, K.J. Osborn, Mecole Hardman, Puka Nacua, and Cooper Kupp.
Preemptive: Isaac Guerendo
The Skinny on Guerendo: Blessed with Todd Gurley's size and speed, Guerendo was one of those college running backs who began on a loaded depth chart at Wisconsin with the likes of Jonathan Taylor, Braelon Allen, and Chez Mellusi. It made Guerendo an unknown among casual fans and NFL writers who dabble in the draft until this offseason.
A lot of good NFL running backs who emerged from relative anonymity began this way. Guerendo's strengths mesh well with the core principles of Shanahan's ground game.
If he can pick up the details of the system fast enough and Jordan Mason falters, Shanahan will give Guerendo a chance. Just know if Guerendo falters just a bit, Shanahan is likely to find someone else just as fast.
Recommendation: A Christian McCaffrey or Jordan Mason injury that leads to a listing of questionable or worse on the weekly report. With Mason still likely to start in Minnesota, Guerendo is worth a preemptive addition if Mason gets hurt, falters, and if McCaffrey's issues linger.
Preemptive/Monitor: Michael Penix Jr.
The Skinny on Michael Penix Jr.: I've shared in great detail why Penix is one of the most talented passers in this draft. Penix is a strong fit for Atlanta's passing attack because of his mobility, skill with off-platform placement, and bold vertical game.
With Penix, Atlanta will finally have a quarterback with the superpowers of confidence and placement with vertical targets. This complements Drake London's and Kyle Pitts' superpowers: skill at winning the football in contested scenarios--something that has been dormant in their games.
Expect big plays and big weeks from Penix if he's on the field this year. It may not translate to consistent top-12 fantasy production, but he should at least provide bye-week value.
Recommendation: As I wrote in the August article, you may not see Kirk Cousins favoring his lower leg, but if routes that require him to drive the ball lack accuracy and/or timing, preemptively add Penix if Cousins is your QB1 or if there's an injury to roster depth that frees up a spot.
The time to be preemptive is now in deep leagues. It's a week or two away in other formats.
Monitor: Drew Lock
The Skinny on Lock: The Giants lack the caliber of surrounding talent for its quarterbacks that the other candidates have. But there is another theme that at least three of the four passers share (Lock, Penix, and Thompson): an aggressive vertical game. Lock throws a beautiful deep ball and has a beautiful deep threat in Malik Nabers.
Nabers is the key component of the Giants' passing game. Before Nabers, New York's receiving corps was filled with options with specific talents but no one with enough versatility to tie the room together. Nabers is that option who can do it all, and that allows the rest of the corps opportunities for more favorable matchups.
If Daniel Jones falters, Lock has the skills and experience to deliver strong outings that could lead to big weeks. If Lock has learned to work at his craft behind the scenes since Denver dumped him, this could be the makings of a beautiful career rebound.
Recommendation The preemptive indicators for adding Lock...
- Coming off a game where Jones takes at least five sacks or a lot of hits.
- Heading into a game against an opponent with a strong pass rush.
- After an injury moment where Jones is eventually categorized as "okay," but it's suspect.
- If Jones has an error-ridden game that costs the team a win.
The Giants will have less patience with Jones in Year Six. Brian Daboll is already citing problems with Jones' footwork to the media.
Monitor: Blake Watson
The Skinny on Watson: Audric Estime earned playing time last week, but is on IR with an ankle injury. Watson and Tyler Badie are the next two backs on the depth chart. Badie has more experience but Watson is a better all-around talent with more skill between the tackles.
Watson had a productive preseason, and the Broncos thought highly enough of Watson to keep him on the active roster. They were afraid he'd get poached if the organization tried to sneak him onto the practice squad.
Recommendation: If Watson is active for this week's game, receives touches, and has success, he could see his status elevated to a preemptive addition if the other backs ahead of him deliver lackluster performances. Sean Payton isn't shy about giving lesser-known backs chances to shine.
Final Thought
Good luck!