Dynasty Trades, Grade the Trade

Dynasty trades can be tough to evaluate. Footballguys staffers step in to grade some real dynasty trades.

Hutchinson Brown's Dynasty Trades, Grade the Trade Hutchinson Brown Published 05/12/2024

Welcome to another Grade the Trade article, where the Footballguys staff analyzes dynasty trades across the fantasy football world. The first articles highlighted trades from inside our company, but this time, we took trades from fans on the Twitter machine!

Here are three dynasty trades and grades from our staff.

Dynasty Trade 1 (from @TmoneyNFL)

Format: 12-Team SF PPR

Hutchinson Brown Grade: B+

This is a very solid trade value-wise. While older, Kittle is still one of the better tight ends in all of fantasy and will help you push for championships within the next few years. Paying a distant future first for him is a very solid value, especially if you can get your ring.

While I like this trade, this is risky because you are betting on your team heavily. If your team collapses in the 2025-26 season after possibly a successful season this year, you gave up an extremely valuable rookie pick. Nevertheless, for a potential championship run, it is absolutely worth the risk.

Leo Paciga Grade: B+

In a vacuum, giving up a 2026 1st for a productive, plug-and-play TE in a league with premium TE scoring makes perfect sense if you’ve decided to chase the league crown in '24 and '25. Even at age 30 (31 in October), Kittle likely provides top 5-8 TE production in a two-year window, which is certainly a solid investment return in exchange for moving a random 1st round pick two years out.

The context I would add here, though, as we discuss this trade - and trading away future first-round picks in general - is that leagues have different levels of activity and fluctuating trade windows regarding value spikes. In a league with a lot of activity, trading away picks and then moving back in downstream happens with regularity. Knowing there’s a high level of league activity helps mitigate any real risk with moving a future first, especially a pick that’s two years out. Also, knowing when to capitalize on your league’s draft pick value spikes only maximizes your chances of being effective.

Dynasty Trade 2 (from @FantasyOutlaw):

Format: 10-team 1QB, 0.5 PPR

Gary Davenport Grade: C

Assuming that the IDP scoring in this league is fairly standard, it’s a pretty fair deal for both sides. Jonathan Taylor is the most valuable player in the deal, but he has also run for fewer yards in the last two years combined than he did in 2021.

Kamara, Parsons, and a first is a lot to give up for him, even if you assume that the manager doing so has the kind of ridiculous depth on the defensive line that makes trading Parsons plausible. If Kamara has a year or two of even top-15 production left in him and the manager on that side hits relatively well on that 10th pick, this could be the rare occasion where the team getting the best player actually winds up losing production.

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 Dynasty Trade 3 (from @brucewayne0305):

Format: 12-team SF TEP

Hutchinson Brown Grade: B-

This is a very interesting deal with a lot of risky assets, but the odds of you winning this one are slightly lower than losing it. While Josh Downs is talented and flashed at times as a rookie in his 771-yard campaign, he is in quite a tough situation as, at best, the number two option in an offense with a questionable passer in Anthony Richardson. For fantasy, I just don't see plenty of upside. With Williams, history is against him. Since 2013, there have been 33 running backs who have had multiple seasons of being a top twelve fantasy running back over their careers (aka 15.1 fantasy points per game, which is the average RB12 since 2013). About 80% of them did it at least once in their first two seasons. Williams has not done it in three, meaning, based on history, his having major success in fantasy would be an outlier. He is also in what should be an exceptionally bad offense this year in Denver whose current starting quarterback is Jarret Stidham. However, this is a contract year for him and two years removed from his brutal knee injury at just 23, so he still has a chance. But the risk is immense.

On the other side of the deal, you get a solid veteran rental quarterback in Matthew Stafford, who has amazing weapons and should approach top-15 numbers as long as he is healthy. I like the move of taking advantage of veteran productive quarterbacks in the dynasty because they tend to be extremely undervalued due to the new hotness always coming through in the NFL at quarterback. Then, looking at the 2.01, it could be a great asset in this class that's very deep at wide receiver. Those two could be the best two assets of this trade, making me lean that way.

Thanks for reading this Grade the Trade article. Look out for more of these coming in the future!

 

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