Confession time: I start every week wondering if there will be enough grist for the Fantasy Notebook mill. Yes, I'm the same guy who regularly reminds you the NFL has perfected the 365-day-a-year reality show.
You'd think I might know better.
As always, there were several noteworthy developments.
No, I'm not talking about Tom Brady telling the world he's "not opposed" to picking up the phone if an NFL team needs him one day.
Tom Brady "not opposed" to NFL return if team callshttps://t.co/jJkZwWXDSb pic.twitter.com/6bkRo2zu0t
— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) April 12, 2024
While it's absolutely a development, let's wait until there's a little more meat on the bone before we get too excited.
Because there's plenty beyond that . . .
First, we started gaining clarity on Rashee Rice's situation. I have more on that below.
But we're also getting a better feel for some looming contract battles that should be on your radar as we head towards the summer and the start of training camps.
For example, Dallas Morning News staffer Michael Gehlken reported that CeeDee Lamb will skip at least the voluntary portions of the Cowboys' offseason program. Lamb is heading into the final year of his current contract, set to make just under $18 million. Missing voluntary sessions isn't a big deal, but Gehlken suggested Lamb could deny services even longer without an extension. With Dak Prescott expected to play out the final year of his current contract at $55 million this year, Jerry and Stephen Jones have a lot on their plate.
I cover this story in detail in my weekly Top 5 Fantasy Headlines video on the Footballguys YouTube channel.
But Lamb isn't alone.
Minnesota's Justin Jefferson and Cincinnati's and Tee Higgins, who is currently on the Bengals franchise tag, have their eyes on big paydays.
Let's throw Brandon Aiyuk in the mix, too.
The 49ers wideout has been using his social media accounts to hint at his desire for a new deal since the team's Super Bowl loss to Kansas City. The latest twist came on Saturday when Aiyuk unfollowed the 49ers on Instagram.
All of these wideouts will be looking to reset the receiving market. They'll all certainly want more than the current top contract, Tyreek Hill's deal with Miami, worth $30 million annually.
For perspective, Hill signed that contract with Miami in 2022.
As Gehlken noted, the league's salary cap has since increased. The cap-share equivalent of Hill's $30 million average in 2022 is $36.8 million today.
Consider that a starting point.
As of today, all 32 teams are in the initial phase of their offseason programs, and we'll start finding out who's volunteering to show up.
And who isn't.
We'll watch for more in the coming weeks, but it will soon be time for some of the powers that be to break out the checkbooks.
Meanwhile, it's time for me to break out the good stuff, starting with our usual look at an incoming offensive coordinator . . .
Getting Coordinated: The Patriots
New England hired Alex Van Pelt as their offensive coordinator on Feb 1. The new play-caller, who spent the past four seasons as the Browns' offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach, fills a critical position on first-year coach Jerod Mayo's staff.
Van Pelt didn't call the offensive plays for the Browns, as head coach Kevin Stefanski handled those responsibilities. Still, the former NFL quarterback spent the majority of his coaching career working with that position with Buffalo, the Buccaneers, the Packers, the Bengals, and Cleveland.
In Green Bay, Van Pelt worked with current Patriots director of scouting Eliot Wolf, who is emerging as a leading front-office presence following Bill Belichick's 24-year tenure. Wolf, the son of Pro Football Hall of Fame executive Ron Wolf, was with the Packers from 2004-2017 -- crossing over with Van Pelt for six seasons.
According to ESPN.com's Mike Reiss, this hire signifies the team's move to a more West Coast-based offense. So, what can fantasy managers expect from this offense with Van Pelt at the helm?
We'll start with improvement.
I know. All things considered, improvement seems like a bold prediction, but . . .
It's A Very Low Bar
The Patriots finished the 2023 season ranked second-to-last in points per game, averaging just 13.9. They also finished 29th in the league in total passing yardage (3,392 yards), 30th in yards per game, 31st in third-down conversions, 27th in passing touchdowns (16), and 30th in overall scoring with just 13.9 points per game.
In Cleveland, Van Pelt was part of the offensive staff for a unit that scored 408 points in the 2020 season, the second most in team history.
Van Pelt has made it clear that his offense in New England, while similar to the Browns', won't be a simple copy-and-paste.
Instead, SI.com's Harrison Reno reports that Van Pelt will not look to fit "square pegs into round holes" when implementing an offense that, if he just duplicated what they did in Cleveland, may not precisely fit with the Patriots' personnel.
First Things First
Much will depend on who starts at quarterback.
The Patriots traded Mac Jones, benched in favor of Bailey Zappe late last season, to the Jaguars before signing veteran Jacoby Brissett last month.
According to SI.com's Richie Whitt, Brissett's addition means the Patriots are "willing to drive on a spare tire."
Of course, the team could take a quarterback with the No. 3 pick in this month's NFL Draft. However, according to the latest report from SI.com insider Albert Breer, the decision to take a quarterback in Round 1 still needs to be decided.
If they do land a QB, Brissett would be the bridge.
Expecting much more from the career journeyman would be a reach, with Whitt characterizing the veteran as "neither good enough to keep a starting job nor bad enough to ever go without a backup role."
Brissett's one-year, $8 million contract isn't the kind of investment that suggests the Patriots don't view him as more than that.
But from a fantasy perspective?
NBC Sports' Matthew Berry wrote that Brissett is "not amazing, but he's also not terrible, as he can get points with his legs, has a 51-to-23 career touchdown to interception ratio, and he ranked eighth in QBR during his 11 starts with the Browns in 2022."
That said, Brissett is going outside the top 32 QBs in early best balls, and the team's current level of investment at wideout also says something . . .
The State Of The Receiving Corps
As Yahoo's Matt Harmon wrote this week, "Kendrick Bourne is the best wide receiver on this depth chart, but he's coming back from a torn ACL. That about sums up the state of this room."
Harmon, also the creator of the Reception Perception methodology for wide receiver evaluation, likes Demario Douglas as a slot receiver who can "do a little more than your typical bunnyhop-route player at the position."
With Bourne and Douglas as their top two wideouts, Harmon contends New England is a strong candidate to add multiple bodies at the position in the draft.
They are set at tight end, however.
Hunter Henry re-signed with the Patriots on a three-year deal just before hitting free agency. He was on pace to be the Patriots' leading receiver in 2023 before a knee injury cost him the final three games. He finished with 42 catches for 419 yards and a team-high six touchdown receptions.
Henry has caught 35 or more passes for at least 400 yards in all but one of his eight seasons.
The Patriots also added Austin Hooper in free agency.
The presence of Van Pelt enticed Hooper to sign with the Patriots. Hooper and Van Pelt were together for two seasons in Cleveland. When Hooper was with Van Pelt, he caught 46 passes for 435 yards and four touchdowns in 2020 and 38 receptions for 345 yards and three touchdowns in 2021.
Not surprisingly, all of New England's current receiving assets are essentially "free-square" plays available at the tail end of best-ball drafts.
But other Patriots merit our attention . . .
For The Obvious Reasons
Cleveland's running game ranked in the top 10 in three of Van Pelt's four seasons on staff. Don't be surprised if we see an effort for a similar outcome here.
The weaponry is in place.
Though a high-ankle sprain suffered in Week 13 would sideline him for the remainder of the season, Rhamondre Stevenson finished the season with 619 yards and four touchdowns while averaging four yards per attempt. He was also a notable contributor in the passing game, catching 38 passes for 238 yards and seven touchdowns.
Boston Globe staffer Nicole Yang recently reported that Stevenson is ready for a more prominent role heading into a contract year.
"I want to be the featured back for the Patriots," he said.
Yang went on to remind readers that throughout Stevenson's first three seasons in New England, the Patriots, more often than not, alternated drives with their running backs. Last year, until he was hurt, Stevenson would get a drive, then Ezekiel Elliott would get a drive. The two would switch on and off. The same pattern happened in 2022 with Stevenson and Damien Harris.
Yang added Stevenson typically would get the snaps on third down, but barring injuries or other absences, the Patriots stuck to their script of close to an even split.
Headed into 2024, Stevenson plans on speaking to Mayo and Van Pelt about modifying that approach.
"The guys I split with -- Damien, Zeke -- they would say the same thing," Stevenson said. "The importance of being in the game and getting a hang of the game, just drive after drive -- not one drive on, one drive off. You can't get hot like that. All running backs know that. You can't really get hot like that."
While Elliott won't be back this year, former Commanders running back Antonio Gibson is on board.
Gibson signed a three-year deal worth just over $11 million (with incentives that could increase the value to $17 million) last month. He is coming off a season in which he set career lows for touches (113), total yards (654), and touchdowns (three) on 473 offensive snaps in 16 games.
Stevenson is expected to be the primary back, but will it be a true featured role with Gibson in the mix?
To get a better feel for how the workload might be divided, Footballguy Ryan Weisse pointed to Van Pelt's recent history, reminding readers the duo of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt held down the Cleveland backfield from 2020 to 2022, and after Chubb went down last year, it was a two-back system again with Hunt and Jerome Ford.
Weisse added: "The most likely scenario is that Stevenson is the primary runner, ceding some passing game work to Gibson. If that means a Nick Chubb-esque role for Stevenson, it should pay dividends in fantasy."
Stevenson can be had as RB20 on Underdog and RB23 on Bestball 10s.
This aligns reasonably well with our Footballguys 2024 Draft Rankings, where Stevenson sits at RB18.
Gibson is our RB46, which also tracks with his RB48 (on Underdog) and RB51 (on BestBall 10s) ADP . . .
Getting A Handle On Rice
On Wednesday, an arrest warrant was issued for Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice in connection to his involvement in a multi-vehicle crash in Dallas on Mar 30. Rice, who posted a statement on his Instagram four days later saying he was cooperating with the investigation, surrendered to authorities on Thursday.
He was booked and released on $40,000 bond.
According to the arrest warrant affidavit obtained by the Dallas Morning News on Friday, Rice was driving 119 mph in his black Lamborghini SUV before he lost control of the vehicle.
Crash data cited in the affidavit stated the other driver, who was behind the wheel of a Corvette that also belongs to Rice, was going 116 mph seconds before the crash. The speed limit was 70 mph, and police said how the men were driving put "multiple people at risk of loss of life and serious injury."
Rice faces eight felony charges: Six counts of collision involving bodily injury, one count of collision involving serious bodily injury, and one count of aggravated assault.
All of this puts Rice in the crosshairs of the NFL's Personal Conduct Policy.
As last week's Fantasy Notebook mentioned, it's often best to hold off making moves after off-field incidents until we have a clearer picture.
We're starting to get that -- even if we're still in the speculative phase.
Footballguy Drew Davenport, a practicing defense attorney, is my go-to when assessing these situations.
Drew sees reasons for optimism.
First, Rice has approached this as though he is genuinely remorseful. Davenport contends this is important to both the NFL and the prosecutors handling the case in court. It's possible Rice pleads down and the felonies go away, which would also be a mitigating factor in terms of potential punishment.
That said, the high speed involved, combined with the serious nature of some of the injuries sustained, is a concern.
Citing examples of other players caught driving at high speeds and their varied outcomes in terms of league discipline, Davenport stresses the results of the speed matter more than the speed itself.
Jordan Addison was reportedly going 140 mph.
— Drew Davenport (@DrewDavenportFF) April 12, 2024
Marquise Brown was reportedly going 126 mpg.
Henry Ruggs was reportedly going 156 mph.
Rashee Rice was reportedly going 119 mph.
One of these guys is in prison. Two of them didn't even warrant a statement from the NFL for their…
Given all the facts -- as they stand now, Davenport still thinks a 1- to 2-game sanction is the most likely outcome -- if he's suspended.
But there is a caveat.
"What matters most is whether 'bad facts' continue to leak out that make the case worse," Davenport added.
While the league usually waits for resolution of criminal cases before imposing discipline, the Chiefs could ask Rice to skip the offseason program.
In 2019, the team and Hill agreed the wideout would stay away from offseason workouts while authorities were investigating a broken arm suffered by Hill's son. Hill ultimately was not charged.
Taking all this into account, our own Sigmund Bloom wrote in his This Week in NFL News on Thursday, "It might end up being a good time to buy Rice in dynasty leagues, but if the Chiefs go wide receiver in Round 1, Rice's value will fall further."
Bloom reminded readers that even when the Chiefs took Mecole Hardman with their first pick in Round 2 with Hill's future still in question in 2019, anyone who bought Hill during the dip was handsomely rewarded.
And make no mistake: There is a dip.
While he's still a WR2 in our Dynasty Rankings (Patrick Mahomes II matters here), Rice has fallen outside that territory in current best balls, with a WR26 ADP on Underdog. While that's off his initial range (it wasn't unusual to see him go in Round 3 in early best balls), I find the pricing on recent addition Marquise Brown more interesting.
I'm not against Hollywood at his WR35 ADP on Underdog, but I'll be acquiring all the shares I can at double-digit round prices (WR45) on BestBall 10s . . .
Dialing Back On Etienne?
The Jaguars struggled to run the ball in 2023. They finished 23rd overall with 96.8 yards per game.
But their final six weeks were downright horrible.
Jacksonville averaged just 79 yards per game on the ground despite a 155-yard performance during a Week 17 shutout win over the Panthers. Florida Times-Union staffer Demetrius Harvey put that in perspective by noting the Bengals' league-worst average on the season was 89.8 yards per game.
In addition to more consistent play along the offensive line, part of the plan to improve the run game is getting second-year back Tank Bigsby involved more.
One of last summer's fantasy darlings (and I was among those guilty of touting him as such), Bigsby's inability to protect the football ultimately left him on the bench for much of the season.
He played just 141 snaps and got 50 carries for 132 yards with two touchdowns.
Head coach Doug Pederson says that must change.
The desired outcome is taking some of the burden off Travis Etienne Jr., with Pederson telling reporters that keeping the former first-round pick healthy all year is vital.
Etienne played 856 offensive snaps last season. That's a 73 percent snap share.
His 325 total touches -- up from 255 the year before -- ranked third in the league last year behind San Francisco's Christian McCaffrey and Tampa Bay's Rachaad White.
"It's not the recipe, necessarily, to put Travis in that situation. So I would consider knocking a few of those reps down to keep him healthy throughout the course of the year," Pederson said.
Still, that heavy usage is why Etienne finished 2023 as fantasy's RB3.
He's RB7 on the Footballguys 2024 Draft Rankings. He's going in Rounds 2 to 3 in early best balls.
I still think that's a defensible price, but we need to watch for other possible additions to this backfield or for signs that Tank is truly capable of bolstering the rushing attack as the season draws nearer . . .
By the way, SI.com Jaguars beat writer John Shipley, appearing on my SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio show -- the FootballDiehards -- on Saturday, told listeners the Jaguars believe Bigsby is still their top option beyond Etienne. Shipley went on to suggest the Jaguars needs at wideout will be their focus in the NFL Draft, and if they add to the running back room, it'll likely be an undrafted free agent joining Etienne, Bigsby, and D'Ernest Johnson on the depth chart . . .
A Dynamic Duo In Tennessee
When the Titans signed Tony Pollard to a contract this offseason, fantasy managers were immediately concerned that he would be paired with second-year man Tyjae Spears this fall.
Those worries won't diminish after Tennessee's new coordinator, Nick Holz, suggested the two men are interchangeable. "We see it 1A, 1B, and they're both just gonna play a ton, get a lot of carries," Holz said.
I get the concern. But is it possible we're overstating it?
Spears, working behind Derrick Henry last season, was adequate. He ran for 453 yards on 100 carries and added 385 yards on 52 catches.
But that's from an NFL perspective. From a fantasy perspective, it was much less appealing. Spears averaged 9.0 fantasy points per game on the season, but Berry notes that number dipped to 7.6 points per game when Spears failed to get 10 touches.
Meanwhile, as anybody who invested in him last season will tell you, Pollard's single season in a featured role was a disappointment.
While he showed he could carry the load, Pollard's explosive plays diminished, and, as NFL.com notes, his yards-per-carry average plummeted to a career-low 4.0. He posted a career-low 2.92 yards after contact per carry, and his 22.8 percent breakaway rate was the lowest in his career, per Pro Football Focus.
He has been more efficient when sharing.
According to Footballguy Zareh Kantzabedian, in 2022, 45 percent of Pollard's 186 rush attempts accounted for runs of 15 or more yards. Since 2020, only Breece Hall has hit that mark.
That upside probably explains Pollard's RB22 ADP in early bestballs. Spears is available as RB34.
But if this latest news depresses Pollard's price and both are available as RB3-level investments, I'll have shares . . .
The Final Word
That's it for this week's Fantasy Notebook.
I'll remind you the NFL Draft draws near. Footballguys has you covered, whether it's the video content on all the top prospects on our YouTube Channel, associated articles on those rookies, NFL mock drafts (including the latest by our own Matt Bitonti), ADP for Dynasty Rookie Drafts, a staff roundtable on C.J. Stroud's Dynasty outlook, and much more, including the 2024 Rookie Draft Guide.
Otherwise, I appreciate your time and look forward to meeting you in this spot next week for more developing stories that need to be on your radar.
Heck, maybe even more Brady. See you then.