The Internet lit up this week with a red-hot debate over C.J. Stroud when the second-year signal caller was suddenly being discussed as QB1 in Dynasty drafts.
We asked our Footballguys Staff if Stroud merits that status, and the answer was a resounding "No."
But it's worth a closer look.
Stroud came out of the chute hot as a rookie, delivering a pair of 300-yard performances and three two-touchdown outings in his first four games. Stroud then exploded against the Buccaneers in Week 9 for 470 yards and five scores.
Since his epic Week 9 outing, Stroud has been locked in as a Top-10 Dynasty quarterback and often mentioned in the top five at the position.
Then came last week's trade that added veteran wideout Stefon Diggs to the Texans' receiving corps. Some began speaking of Stroud as "the" -- not "a" -- top Dynasty fantasy football quarterback.
Is he worth the QB1 spot?
Our staffers explain where they rank C.J. Stroud for Dynasty. They also let us know who they see ahead of them.
The Answers at a Glance
- Staffers Ranking Stroud QB1 - 0
- Staffers Ranking Stroud QB2 - 0
- Staffers Ranking Stroud QB3 - 1
- Staffers Ranking Stroud QB4 - 4
- Staffers Ranking Stroud QB5 - 5
- Staffers Ranking Stroud QB6 - 1
- Staffers Ranking Stroud lower - 0
Quarterbacks Ahead of Stroud
- Josh Allen was ranked ahead of Stroud 100% of the time.
- Patrick Mahomes II was ranked ahead of Stroud 100% of the time.
- Jalen Hurts was ranked ahead of Stroud 72.7% of the time.
- Lamar Jackson was ranked ahead of Stroud 72.7% of the time.
- Joe Burrow was ranked ahead of Stroud 9.1% of the time.
The Complete Answers
Sam Wagman
Stroud is definitely in my top-five dynasty quarterbacks but sits squarely at five. He's currently behind Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, and Patrick Mahomes II, and I'll give you the main reason:
He doesn't run.
Stroud is as gifted a passer as any of the top guys, really. His Deep Ball Completion Percentage ranked in the top five last season, he destroyed both man and zone coverage with a passer rating of above 102 against both, and he turned Nico Collins and Tank Dell into stars.
However, fantasy football wants quarterbacks to run, and Stroud simply doesn't as much, with only four games of more than four carries and 15 yards. With Joe Mixon in the building, he may run even less.
Dave Kluge
Stroud assuredly deserves to be ranked highly after his impressive rookie season. But preferring him ahead of Josh Allen, who has been the per-game QB3 or better for four straight seasons, is too reactionary. Patrick Mahomes II has a similar production profile and a more proven track record. Stroud is my QB4 behind Allen, Mahomes, and Lamar Jackson. Stroud is undoubtedly great, but his profile might not be for fantasy football. Despite passing the eye test with flying colors, Stroud was fantasy's per-game QB10 last year and had just five top-10 finishes. Averaging only 11.1 rushing yards per game lowers his weekly floor. He'll likely maintain season-long top-10 output, but his ceiling may leave something to be desired. Declaring him as the overall dynasty QB1 makes him a prime sell candidate if you can tier down and acquire additional assets to pair Allen, Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, or Caleb Williams.
Ben Cummins
C.J. Stroud is my QB5 behind only Patrick Mahomes II, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts. He's a better quarterback than Jackson and Hurts but falls behind them in fantasy/dynasty due to his lack of rushing. Stroud literally has no weaknesses in his game as a passer. He has strong arm talent that allows him to make every throw in the book. His accuracy and touch on deep balls consistently show up on film, and his accurate downfield sideline shots are reminiscent of Joe Burrow. Two indicators of good mental processing show up repeatedly when watching him: anticipatory throws and back shoulder throws all over the field, including deep down the field. The defense has to cover the entire field when trying to defend him. He's going to be elite for a very long time. Get used to it.
Jeff Tefertiller
For dynasty, Stroud is my QB4, behind Josh Allen, Patrick Maholmes, and Lamar Jackson. He was very impressive as a rookie and will only get better over time. I like the addition of Diggs to an already impressive receiving corps. Dell and Collins will be healthy, so the addition of Diggs gives Stroud an elite group of receivers. Schultz and Mixon are also weapons in the passing game.
Unless Stroud becomes a greater threat in the running game, I will struggle to move him up to the top spot. These other three passers offer fantasy upside due to their rushing ability and willingness to gain yards and scores on the ground.
The second-year passer has a legitimate shot at leading his team to the Super Bowl. He is a star in the making.
Hutchinson Brown
Stroud is my QB3 in dynasty, only behind Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes II.
Many question Stroud's ceiling, but I would argue he can take a leap in fantasy as he matures even more in the NFL. He is already an elite passer. He also has an elite offensive core around him and is in an organization that wants to build around him.
Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson are two top tier dynasty assets that people may rank over the Texans' star, but I'd lean Stroud because we often see quarterbacks lose their rushing power as they enter age thirty. Jackson, at 27 years old, is approaching that potential cliff. Looking towards Hurts, his play last year slightly concerned me for his longevity as the Eagles starter. If I need to invest heavily in a dynasty quarterback, I want to have security. Stroud presents that more than Hurts.
Corey Spala
I have Stroud ranked as my current QB5 in dynasty behind Patrick Mahomes II, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts. I had to keep in mind the rushing ability these quarterbacks provide, aside from Mahomes, on a weekly basis. Stroud had only 167 rushing yards and three touchdowns in his rookie season. A lack of rushing statistics will lower his weekly floor. I understand wanting a young player for years to come, especially if you play in a Superflex league. The quarterback position brings a longer outlook, or shelf-life, as you may have heard, compared to a running back. Notably, as a rookie, Stroud had five top-10 and three top-5 weekly QB1 finishes. Respectively, Jackson had 10 top-10 and six top-5 weekly finishes. This is why I prefer the four aforementioned quarterbacks over Stroud. I am not rejecting Stroud will continue to develop and not be a superstar for the Houston Texans. There is more consistency to be found at this current price or tier of quarterbacks.
Jason Wood
C.J. Stroud is my No. 4 dynasty quarterback behind Patrick Mahomes II, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts. Stroud's rookie season couldn't have gone better, and the Texans have made it clear this offseason that they're going to continue surrounding him with talent. It's exceedingly rare for a quarterback of Stroud's pedigree to peak as a rookie, and he was already playing at an MVP level. Given his age, talents, and rookie success, he's understandably a sought-after asset near the very top of the dynasty value board. What keeps Stroud from cracking into the Top 3 are two issues: 1) Longevity, we've seen the top 3 quarterbacks put up elite numbers for multiple seasons, and 2) Rushing upside. Stroud isn't a runner, or at least we've yet to see him emphasize the ground game.
Bob Harris
I have Stroud at QB5, behind the list you'd expect (Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes II, Jalen Hurts, and Lamar Jackson) for the same reason -- a lack of rushing equity -- cited by others. Also, as impressive as his rookie season was (and I don't see it as a mirage), Stroud is slightly less proven. In a range where we're splitting hairs, that's no small thing. I'll add one last thing I haven't seen others mention: If Stroud is everything we expect and puts up another strong season in 2024, it seems highly likely his offensive coordinator, Bobby Slowik, will rise up the ranks of heading coaching candidates heading into 2025. A coaching change wouldn't be a deal breaker, but again, we're splitting hairs here.
Ryan Weisse
Stroud lands at QB4 in my dynasty rankings. He slots in behind the usual suspects of Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes II, and Jalen Hurts. At one point during the 2023 season, I moved him all the way to QB1, based on what we saw on the field and his age compared to those ahead of him. He has that upside, and in this upcoming season, with the best weapons of his life and another year of comfortability in the offense, I could easily see myself moving him back to the top spot. He was the QB9 last season but the only top-10 QB to play 15 games. If you had given two more games of production, he would have been the QB6 in his rookie year. Realistically, Allen and Hurts' rushing upside and Patrick Mahomes II' existence cap his fantasy ranking, but if you told me he was your QB1, I wouldn't need much convincing.
Andy Hicks
I would currently rank C.J. Stroud sixth. Patrick Mahomes II, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrow are ahead of him. Of course, Stroud has the upside to move up this list, but with only one year of production, I am reluctant to move him ahead of guys with years of elite performance. Is Houston building something great? Did we get a year where luck was on their side? Opposing defenses will have had a whole offseason to work through flaws in Stroud's game. While the future is bright for him, I want to see progression and development in his second season before I am comfortable ranking him ahead of the peers mentioned. He is close to Burrow and Jackson in my rankings and could easily slot in fourth, but experience counts.
Gary Davenport
At the risk of sounding like a parrot, Stroud would be at the back end of my top-five in dynasty, behind Allen, Hurts, Mahomes, and Jackson (in whatever order turns your gears). He doesn't have the rushing upside of Hurts, Allen, and Jackson (and that matters in fantasy football—a lot), and he has yet to show that he can consistently maintain the sort of passing numbers that Mahomes has.
Is it possible that Stroud could outpoint one or more of those players with a 5,000-yard, 40-plus touchdown campaign? Absolutely—the addition of Stefon Diggs gives Stroud an array of weaponry that rivals any in the NFL. And I absolutely do not believe last year's performance was a fluke—Stroud's poise and accuracy are legit. But to work his way any higher up the list, he's going to need to back up 2023—or better it.