Congratulations. We've made it through the most frantic portion of free agency. You know what that means?
Draft-hype season is upon us!
I used an exclamation point there. But I'm not really excited. In fact, I kind of dread it. Don't get me wrong, I'm keenly interested in the players. While I'm working to understand the unique talents and skillsets the incoming class brings to the table, I'm less interested in other aspects. Like the social-media bickering about who's better than who; the minute-by-minute tracking of who's rising and who's falling; the endless speculation about which team is drafting which player; who's working out and who's not . . .
I'm not against NFL mock drafts. Credible versions help me sort out team needs, and our own Christian Williams' Mock Draft 5.0 is an ideal starting point for that journey.
However, if, as I like to contend, the NFL Scouting Combine press conferences are when general managers and coaches are most likely to tell the truth, the draft-hype season is when they're most likely to blow smoke, obfuscate, dissemble, and lie.
I get it. Some of you love that part of it.
But the answer for me is focusing on trusted analysis of the players. That being the case, I'll remind you that the Footballguys 2024 Rookie Draft Guide 2.0 is available for Footballguys Elite and Hall of Fame subscribers (and Version 1.0 is still free to all comers). In addition, our own Matt Waldman is putting the finishing touches on the 2024 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.
Meanwhile, though they've slowed down, the moves are still ongoing.
We cover all of them in real time with our 2024 Free Agent Tracker. We continue to go more in-depth with Instant Reactions on all the major moves. Our 2024 Rankings and Projections reflect the changes. If you've had a busy week and want to catch up on the latest and greatest, my "5 NFL Headlines That Changed Fantasy Football" gives you a quick video review designed to get you up to speed. Those who play both sides of the ball will also find Gary Davenport's IDP Free Agency Winners and Losers available.
My anti-draft-hype season stance should explain why I'll focus primarily on non-draft-related content in the weekly Fantasy Notebook, even as the NFL Draft draws nearer. There's plenty of exciting fallout from free agency, coaching changes, and general fantasy strategies to dig into, and I'm here for it.
Let's get the ball rolling with our weekly look at an offensive coordinator change . . .
Getting Coordinated: Browns
After moving on from Alex Van Pelt, the Browns hired Ken Dorsey, who spent the last five seasons with the Bills, as their next offensive coordinator.
Dorsey was hired as Buffalo's quarterbacks coach in 2019, a role he also held in Carolina from 2013 through 2018 (after playing the position for the 49ers and Browns).
The Bills promoted him to passing game coordinator and quarterbacks coach in 2021. Dorsey received another promotion in 2022 when he replaced Brian Daboll as offensive coordinator. Dorsey served in that capacity until midway through the 2023 season when he was fired after Buffalo's 5-5 start.
Although Dorsey was criticized for predictable playcalling in the weeks before his dismissal, Browns coach Kevin Stefanski pointed to the new hire's background as a quarterback and Dorsey's success coaching the position as factors that made him appealing.
"I think in Buffalo, as we saw, as we competed against them and as you study them, I mean, very, very explosive in their offense, did a variety of things through the run and the pass that are exciting," Stefanski said.
Indeed, in his first season with the Bills, Dorsey worked with quarterback Josh Allen, who tallied the biggest improvement in QB rating in the NFL in 2019. Then, during Dorsey's first season as offensive coordinator, the Bills finished second in the NFL in total offense (397.6 yards per game) and points per game (28.4).
In 2020, Dorsey helped Allen finish second in the MVP voting, and Allen set single-season franchise records for passing touchdowns (37), completions (396), 300-yard games (8), passer rating (107.2), completion percentage (69.2), passing yards (4,544), and total touchdowns (46).
Allen also became the first player in NFL history with at least 4,000 passing yards, 30 passing touchdowns, and eight rushing touchdowns in a season in 2020.
Stefansksi added that Dorsey "sees it exactly how I see it" when it comes to crafting an offense.
"You want to play through the strengths of your players," Stefanski said. "I don't think either of us or anyone on our offensive staff believes that you have to do one thing to win in the NFL because that's not the reality of life in the NFL. You have to be multifaceted. You have to be able to pivot in a game. You have to be versatile in what you're doing.
"So, we'll do what we feel is best for our players in any specific given game because that changes from game to game as well . . ."
Who's In Charge?
Stefanski has called the Browns' offensive plays since he was hired in 2020, but with Dorsey on board, that could change.
During his turn at the podium during last month's combine, Stefanski said he had yet to determine who would handle that role in 2024.
"I think where we are right now, in our looking at the offense, putting it back together, I don't know if that decision's important right this minute," Stefanski said. "So, I'll let you know as soon as I've made a decision."
Whoever ends up calling the plays, the primary objective is obvious . . .
Fixing Watson
Much will depend on getting Deshaun Watson on point.
Dorsey knows that.
"Watching Deshaun, he clearly has a great feel for a lot of different aspects of football, whether it's scheme-wise for us, instincts of what he sees on the field in terms of the defense and adjusting things," Dorsey said. "But I think the exciting part about working with him is getting him back to the elite level of who he is."
The enthusiasm is mutual.
Cleveland Plain Dealer reporter Mary Kay Cabot recently advised readers that Watson is equally excited to work with Dorsey, who, in addition to having great success with Allen, also helped coach Watson's close friend Cam Newton to NFL MVP and a Super Bowl berth in 2015 when he was with the Panthers.
I'm super excited to get up there in Cleveland and just learn from him," Watson recently said. "And I heard his press conference, too. That was dope to be able to hear what he said, make me one of those type quarterbacks again. So that's the key."
What is Watson capable of when he's at his best?
Dorsey had it right. Before he arrived in Cleveland, Watson compiled elite numbers during a four-year run with the Texans.
To review: Watson left Houston with the highest completion percentage in NFL history (67.8 percent) among all players with at least 1,500 passing attempts. He led the NFL in passing yards with 4,823 in 2020 and set the Texans' franchise record with 33 passing touchdowns that same season.
Watson also became the first player in NFL history to record consecutive seasons (2018-19) with at least 25 passing touchdowns and five rushing touchdowns.
Other highlights include being the first player in NFL history to surpass 10,000 career passing yards and 1,000 career rushing yards in his first 40 games. Waston also had five passing touchdowns three times in a game and did not record an interception in any of those contests. He registered a career-high 426 passing yards against Atlanta on Oct. 6, 2019.
More importantly, he was a top-5 fantasy quarterback in three out of his four seasons in Houston.
He was QB26 as a rookie in 2017, followed by a pair of QB4 seasons (2018 and '19) with a QB5 finish in 2020, his final season with the Texans.
Watson has fallen far short of that since making his Browns debut late in the 2022 season.
Limited by suspension and injury, he's played just 12 games for Cleveland over the last two seasons. He's completed 60 percent of his throws for 2,217 yards with 14 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He's finished as QB36 in fantasy in both campaigns as a Brown while averaging a mediocre 14.2 fantasy points per game . . .
Setting Expectations
As The Sporting News' Joe Rivera recently suggested, the confounding aspect of Watson's struggles in Cleveland lies in the fact he has better offensive talent around him than he had in Houston. While he connected with his favorite target in Houston, Brandin Cooks, for 1,150 receiving yards in 2020, Watson has yet to establish a rhythm with players like Amari Cooper and David Njoku -- certainly not to the degree Joe Flacco did after Watson was hurt last year.
Flacco earned Associated Press Comeback Player of the Year honors by leading the Browns to a 4-1 record and AFC wild-card berth as a starter. In his five games as the starter, Flacco completed 60.3 percent of his passes for 1,616 yards with 13 touchdowns, eight interceptions, and a passer rating of 90.2.
As I noted in a previous Fantasy Notebook, Njoku averaged 18.6 fantasy points per game in his five games with Flacco last year; he's averaged 9.0 fantasy points per game in 11 games with Watson as his triggerman. Cooper had 11 catches for 265 yards, a career-high and a franchise record, in a Week 16 win over the Texans last year and credited Flacco with helping him achieve greatness.
"To be completely candid, I would attribute most of it to Joe," Cooper told the team's official website. "He has an incredible feel for the game. He has an incredible arm. I think, obviously, with the relationship between a receiver and a quarterback, it's a symbiotic relationship. The best way to explain it is that we mesh well together."
That's the vibe Watson needs to target.
The Browns experienced ups and downs throughout the 2023 season as they battled injuries to key offensive players. They started five quarterbacks throughout the season and were without their star running back, Nick Chubb, who went down with a severe knee injury in Week 2, and three of their tackles.
They finished the season ranked 19th in the league in total pass yards with 4,011 and 18th with 24 passing touchdowns. The Browns were last in the league in completion percentage at 56.9 percent. They were also 12th in the league with 2,017 total rushing yards and 14th with 15 rushing touchdowns.
The Browns were No. 10 in points scored and No. 16 in total yards. They also led the league in giveaways, including an NFL-high 23 interceptions.
If they want to turn that around this season, Dorsey getting Allen-like improvement from Waston would be a great starting point; getting Flacco-esque results -- he was QB4 over his four regular-season games as a Brown -- would get the job done . . .
Are The Prices Right?
Those of you looking to get a feel for the fantasy values involved will find everybody here reasonably priced.
Cooper, who finished last year as WR20, is WR29 on the Footballguys 2024 Draft Rankings. Newly-acquired wideout Jerry Jeudy is WR48, and Elijah Moore is WR61.
Cooper's ranking mirrors his current Average Draft Position (ADP) on Underdog. Njoku opened up as our TE8. That compares to his Underdog ADP of TE10 at a position where things tail off quickly once you get past the top tier. Jeudy, with a WR58 ADP, and Moore, who is WR85, are free-square plays.
But Watson, whose QB24 ranking is the same as his Underdog ADP, might have the most upside. I'm not predicting a return to the form he demonstrated during his time in Houston, but it wouldn't take much for Watson to outperform that ranking.
Good health and decent coaching might do the trick . . .
On The Mend
Watson appears set to take another step in his recovery from shoulder surgery. According to Cabot, the QB may begin light throwing again this Tuesday.
Watson is expected to participate in at least some aspects of the offseason program if not all of it. However, Cleveland does not want to rush his return, so the team recently added Jameis Winston and Tyler Huntley to the roster (Dorian Thompson-Robinson is the other quarterback currently under contract).
While Watson will likely be limited in organized team activities and the mandatory minicamp in June, he's expected to be ready for training camp in July, even if he ramps up to the season. The Browns hope to be awarded the Pro Football Hall of Fame preseason opener again, this time on Aug. 1, which would enable them to start training camp on July 20 . . .
On The Mend 2?
One last note in Cleveland . . . The Browns signed running back D'Onta Foreman last week, and as Footballguy Sigmund Bloom contends, this matters because the Browns don't have to rush Chubb back from his catastrophic knee injury.
Bloom explained, "Foreman can be an early down grinder paired with Jerome Ford, who definitively showed that he belongs as at least a committee back in the NFL."
Remember: Chubb underwent two surgeries.
The first repaired the medial capsule, meniscus, and MCL in late September, and the second repaired the ACL in November.
The Browns have referred to his possible return window as "at some point in 2024."
We shall see.
Bloom pointed out that, for now, "Chubb is going in the late seventh round in early best ball drafts. It might not be a bad idea to pair Foreman with him in deeper drafts since Foreman is basically free."
Free is my favorite price . . .
Running Back To Prominence
Last offseason, Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah cut running back Dalvin Cook, putting Minnesota on the list of NFL teams that decided not to pay aging ball carriers.
But, as Profootballtalk.com's Michael David Smith noted, this offseason, Adofo-Mensah has a different approach.
The Vikings signed running back Aaron Jones in free agency, and Adofo-Mensah said he thinks that after years of NFL teams devaluing running backs, it may have gone too far.
"We get the conversation about running backs and age and different things like that," Adofo-Mensah said via the St. Paul Pioneer-Press. "Maybe that dynamic has gone a little too far to the other side, and teams are realizing that there are still really good players at their value. It's a position where we can really upgrade performance pretty efficiently. We're excited to have him."
Adofo-Mensah thinks Jones was well worth the one-year, $7 million contract he signed.
The GM also thinks other NFL teams may have gone too far in cost-cutting on running backs. It would appear he's not alone . . .
The Packers replaced Jones with Josh Jacobs, signing the former Raider to a four-year, $48 million contract; the Eagles landed Saquon Barkley, giving him a three-year, $37.75 million deal; the Ravens will pay Derrick Henry $16 million over two years; D'Andre Swift and Tony Pollard also get $8 million a year over the next three seasons -- Swift in Chicago and Pollard in Tennessee; and the Texans, after trading for Joe Mixon, signed the former Bengal to a three-year, $27 million extension.
Jacobs, Barkley, Henry, and Mixon all have clear paths to true feature roles, making their new team's respective investments understandable.
More interesting are Swift and Pollard, who don't appear to have that same path to a featured role, getting up into that $8 million a year territory ahead of Jones (who will share to some degree as well).
Assuming teams give us an idea of their desired outcomes based on resources doled out, all of these players, ranking from late RB1 through early RB3 on our initial rankings make sense.
But as always, those who dig deeper -- and spend less -- might get a steal . . .
Ride The Bus
There's one potential feature back who came at a bargain basement price and is positioned to outproduce his higher-priced contemporaries.
Chargers general manager Joe Hortiz joined the team after decades of working for the Ravens, and he brought a handful of players from Baltimore in during free agency.
One of those players is running back Gus Edwards, who played in 69 games for Baltimore before signing in Los Angeles for two years and $6.5 million -- less than half the price of those $8 million-a-year backs.
Edwards only started 26 of those games, and he split time with various other backs over the years, but the other backs in L.A. have limited experience, and Hortiz suggested in an interview with the team's website that Edwards is capable of carrying a full load.
"He's the bell cow, the goal line [guy], the finisher," Hortiz said. "The right mentality for what we're looking to do here. I told you we wanted to be bigger, play a physical style of football on both sides of the ball, and he helps us do that."
The Chargers could still add to the backfield and share the wealth, but it sounds like they believe Edwards can give them all they're looking for in the run game.
We have evidence that's within his range of possible outcomes because we've seen this movie before.
During his time with the Ravens, Edwards worked under the Chargers' new offensive coordinator, Greg Roman, for four years.
Footballguy Ryan Weisse pointed out that Edwards carried the ball 501 times for 2,585 yards, with an outstanding 5.16 yards per carry average, during those four years. He also scored 13 touchdowns, a number he matched last year alone.
Weisse noted that Edwards showed us what he could do with a more significant workload in 2023 by carrying the ball 198 times for 810 yards and those 13 touchdowns, all career highs.
And while he was a bargain for the Chargers, he's been an absolute gift for investors in early best balls, who are landing him as an RB4 in Round 10.
Safe to say I'll be climbing on board "The Gus Bus" at that price . . .
That's it for this week's Fantasy Notebook. I appreciate you spending some time with me.
The best part about the news slowing down is that it allows the processing and analysis to ramp up. Expect more of that when we reconvene in this space next week.
See you then.