NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

The advice in this article pertains predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

Game Scripting & Roster Construction

Thursday night's game carries significant AFC playoff implications as the 9-5 Denver Broncos travel to Los Angeles to take on the 8-6 Chargers. These two teams appear to be heading in opposite directions: the Broncos are riding a four-game winning streak, while the Chargers have lost three of their last four. However, this contrast can largely be attributed to their respective schedules. The Broncos have faced teams with losing records during their streak, while the Chargers have battled teams with winning records. On paper, this is an even matchup, with Vegas projecting a narrow 22-20 victory for the home-field Chargers.

These teams last met in Week 6 in Colorado, where the Chargers defeated the Broncos 23-16, holding Denver scoreless until the fourth quarter. After analyzing the matchups, recent quarterback performances, injuries (outlined below), and other variables, I'm projecting another narrow win for the Chargers on Thursday night.

For lineup construction, I recommend rostering at least three, possibly four, Chargers in your builds. As for the Broncos, targeting one of their under-the-radar options is a solid strategy to differentiate your lineups. Finally, consider leaving some salary on the table this week. With these offenses distributing touches across many players, only a few higher-priced options truly justify their cost.

Injury Roundup

The Broncos will be without running back Jaleel McLaughlin, who suffered a quad injury last week against the Colts. McLaughlin's absence should open the door for more playing time for rookie Audric Estime, a Notre Dame product averaging 4.4 yards per carry on limited action this season. The only other notable injury for Denver is cornerback Riley Moss, who will miss the game with a knee injury. Kris Abrams-Draine will make his second consecutive start in Moss's absence. The rookie from Missouri held his own against the Colts last week, though facing the Chargers' stronger offense will be a more significant challenge.

The Chargers are expected to be without two key defensive backs on Thursday. Cam Hart remains in concussion protocol, and Elijah Molden (knee) is doubtful after missing practice all week. Molden's absence will be especially impactful, as he ranks 15th out of 160 safeties on Pro Football Focus this season. These injuries could benefit the Broncos' passing game, but predicting which Denver receiver will capitalize is difficult, given their tendency to spread targets.

On offense, the Chargers will once again be without tight end Will Dissly, marking his second missed game. Stone Smartt will step into the starting role for a second straight week. After being a popular DFS play last weekend, Smartt remains a solid value option at only $4.2K for Thursday's showdown.

Captain Considerations

1. Ladd McConkey
2. Courtland Sutton
3. Stone Smartt

Broncos Showdown Players

Quarterback

Bo Nix (FLEX)

Bo Nix's recent on-field success, combined with multiple injuries in the Chargers' secondary, makes him an intriguing Showdown option for Thursday night. Nix has scored 14+ DraftKings points in 10 consecutive games, showcasing consistent production. While his upside may be somewhat capped, if he surpasses a similar fantasy threshold on Thursday, he's likely to rank among the top scorers in a game where only a handful of players are projected to reach double-digit fantasy points.

Running Backs

Javonte Williams (FLEX...maybe)

The Broncos have employed a "three-headed monster" running back committee throughout the second half of the season. While Javonte Williams has led the group in snaps, it's been Jaleel McLaughlin who has emerged as the most productive back in recent weeks. With McLaughlin sidelined due to a quad injury, Thursday's backfield opportunities are expected to be more condensed, split between Williams and rookie Audric Estime.

Williams has struggled to produce, posting fewer than 20 rushing yards in four of the Broncos' last five games. Given his $7.6K salary, confidence is low that he will deliver value in this matchup. Instead, I recommend fading Williams and banking on Denver's coaching staff using McLaughlin's absence to give the promising rookie Estime an expanded role.

Wide Receivers

Courtland Sutton (CPT or FLEX)
Devaughn Vele (FLEX...maybe)

Since Josh Reynolds was placed on injured reserve with a hand injury in Week 5, Courtland Sutton has emerged as the go-to receiver in the Broncos' offense. Over that span, Sutton has averaged nearly 20 DraftKings points per game and commands a 26% airshare in Denver's passing game—more than double the next closest receiver. Combine that with the Chargers' struggles against wide receivers (allowing the 12th most fantasy points to the position) and a hobbled secondary, and Sutton becomes one of the premier plays on the slate.

Opposite Sutton is Devaughn Vele, a seventh-round draft pick out of Utah from this spring's draft. Vele has seen around 60% of Denver's offensive snaps and holds a slight edge over the team's other tertiary receivers. However, his production is highly volatile—over the past month, his fantasy outcomes have ranged from 0 to 14 points. While his salary is reasonable, I prefer paying a bit more for his teammate, Audric Estime, who is guaranteed touches and offers both a higher floor and more upside.

Tight Ends

Adam Trautman (FLEX...maybe)

With two scoreless performances in his last four games, Adam Trautman is a tough recommendation for Showdown contests, even with his affordable $3.6K salary. While Trautman's name recognition may make him the most popular Broncos tight end option, Lucas Krull and Nate Adkins (see below) receive similar playing time, come at a lower cost, and offer a way to differentiate your lineup from the crowd.

Under the Radar

Audric Estime (FLEX)
Troy Franklin (FLEX)
Marvin Mims Jr. (FLEX)
Lucas Krull (FLEX)
Nate Adkins (FLEX)

The Broncos' success this season can be attributed to several factors, one of which is their ability to effectively distribute the ball among their supporting players. As mentioned earlier, Audric Estime should see significant playing time, especially with the underperforming Javonte Williams in the mix.

At wide receiver, both Troy Franklin and Marvin Mims Jr. are intriguing options, each priced under $4.5K. Franklin averages 5 targets per game, while Mims averages 4, over the past several weeks. Both have demonstrated their ability to find the end zone, with multiple touchdowns this season, making them intriguing value plays.

The tight end group follows a similar pattern. Lucas Krull and Nate Adkins see nearly equal playing time to Adam Trautman but come at a discount. Krull, in particular, stands out at just $1.2K, offering excellent salary relief and allowing you to pay up for premium players like Courtland Sutton and Ladd McConkey.

LA Chargers Showdown Players

Quarterback

Justin Herbert (FLEX)

With just 16 passing touchdowns across the Chargers' 14 games, paying up for Justin Herbert at $9.8K is a tough sell. However, there's still a case to be made for Herbert in Showdown contests. This game is projected to spread fantasy production across many players on both sides of the ball, and with limited player pools, it's crucial to aggregate points wherever possible. The quarterback position is a prime target, as every play begins with the ball in their hands.

The matchup is challenging—only four NFL teams allow fewer fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks than the Broncos. Still, Herbert warrants consideration because he may only need 200 passing yards and a touchdown to land in winning lineups on Thursday.

Running Backs

Gus Edwards (FLEX...maybe)

The Chargers' backfield faces a tough challenge against Denver's fifth-ranked rush defense, which allows just 98.6 rushing yards per game. Gus Edwards has taken over as the lead back with J.K. Dobbins on injured reserve due to an MCL sprain. However, Edwards has been underwhelming, failing to eclipse 40 rushing yards in each of the last three games.

Last week, Edwards was outsnapped 35-14 by rookie Kimani Vidal, suggesting that the Chargers' coaching staff may be losing confidence in the veteran. At $7.0K, Edwards carries too much risk, and I recommend fading him, leaving your competitors to take the gamble.

Wide Receivers

Ladd McConkey (CPT or FLEX)
Quentin Johnston (FLEX)
Joshua Palmer (FLEX)

With 100+ receiving yards or a touchdown in three of his past four games, Ladd McConkey enters Thursday night's contest as the hottest player on either team. The former Bulldog is just 127 yards away from surpassing 1,000 receiving yards in his rookie season—a milestone achieved only 13 times in the past decade. While the matchup is challenging (the Broncos allow the 7th fewest fantasy points to wide receivers), McConkey's commanding 28% airshare within the Chargers' offense makes him hard to overlook for fantasy purposes.

After McConkey, Quentin Johnston and Joshua Palmer offer solid but risky fantasy options. Johnston is the preferred play, coming off back-to-back games with touchdowns and scoring in five of his last seven contests. His red-zone efficiency makes him a strong consideration in a game where touchdowns may be scarce. Palmer, like Devaughn Vele on the Broncos, is a volatile performer with both upside and risk. The 25-year-old has seen anywhere from 1 to 9 targets over the past month, making him a high-variance option for DFS lineups.

Tight End

Stone Smartt (FLEX or CPT)

Kickers and Defenses

Thursday night features two solid kicker options in Cameron Dicker and Wil Lutz. Dicker ranks 4th in the league with 29 field goals made, converting an impressive 93.5% of his attempts this season. Lutz isn't far behind, sitting 6th with 27 successful field goals out of 30 attempts. Given their similar performances, it's no surprise that DraftKings has priced them close to each other at $5.4K (Dicker) and $5.2K (Lutz).

Both are viable salary-saving options for Showdown contests. However, if I had to choose one, my preference is Lutz. The Broncos have struggled in the red zone on the road this season, converting just 45% of their red-zone possessions. This inefficiency could translate to extra field goal opportunities for Lutz on Thursday in Los Angeles.

When it comes to team defenses, the low Vegas total might suggest that the Broncos and Chargers are strong options. Denver has been solid over the past month, scoring double-digit fantasy points in each of their last four games. However, those performances came against a less-than-stellar group of quarterbacks: Anthony Richardson, Jameis Winston, Gardner Minshew II, and the recently benched Kirk Cousins—all known for turnover issues. On Thursday, the Broncos will face Justin Herbert, who has thrown 400 passes this season with only two interceptions. This matchup significantly tempers expectations for a fifth consecutive double-digit fantasy outing from the Denver defense.

The case for the Chargers defense isn't much better. The Broncos excel at protecting Bo Nix, allowing just 1.4 sacks per game (3rd best in the league). Meanwhile, Los Angeles has managed only one sack in three of their last four games, which severely limits their fantasy upside. If you're rostering the Chargers defense, you're banking on rookie miscues from Bo Nix. While that's possible, it's far from guaranteed.