Contrarian means opposing or rejecting popular opinion; going against the current practice. Being a contrarian in fantasy football is difficult because it's not chalk as the DFS kids would call it today. Risk is involved, but it could be a league-winning selection. Contrarian is where the big money is made within DFS, especially in large tournaments, because you'll submit more unique lineups than your competitors.
- Do mix in one or two of these players within a lineup to maximize individuality.
- Do not create your entire lineup based on the contrarian picks below.
Does playing contrarian in DFS really work? YES! I've won good money in DFS in two out of three weeks by using a contrarian play or two per lineup. Let's keep the heater going this week.
Key for charts:
- Player = recommended contrarian play
- Opponent = Home or away and the opponent
- FD Roster % = This week's FanDuel roster percentages
- FD Salary = FanDuel salary to roster the player
- DK Roster % = This week's DraftKings roster percentages
- DK Salary = DraftKings salary to roster the player
Contrarian Quarterbacks
The Baltimore Ravens defense has been stout this year by allowing the second least yards per play and the third-worst QB passing rating allowed. However, they've faced a weak set of QBs this season in Ryan Tannehill, Malik Willis, Kenny Pickett, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Gardner Minshew, Joe Burrow in week two when he was limited, and C.J. Stroud's first game in the NFL. Jared Goff is quite a different test of Baltimore because he's PFF's top-graded QB on the season. Over the last two games, Goff has thrown five touchdowns, no interceptions, and 589 passing yards.
Nationally televised games get more attention and carry more weight in people's minds. Well, Russell Wilson and the Broncos played poorly last week in one of those games. However, it was Thursday Night Football, and we know those games are a worse product because players are not healed from the previous game. In the three previous games, Wilson averaged 242 passing yards, two touchdowns, and only 0.3 interceptions. Wilson plays a declining Houston pass defense, who allowed 329 passing yards to Desmond Ridder and 353 passing yards to Derek Carr in the last two games. Wilson bouncing back against a struggling defense seems inevitable this week.
Tyson Bagent? I know you're confused. Let me sell you on this one, and it will get worse before it gets better. Starting RG Nate Davis will miss the game, so the Bears reshuffled their starting OL again. The Raiders could be without starting CB Nate Hobbs, and Maxx Crosby was limited for two days with multiple injuries. Crosby is a great talent, but he's the only pass rusher the Raiders can count on. Bagent played so well in the preseason it forced Chicago to release P.J. Walker with his $2M guaranteed contract. The Raiders defense is below average all over the field. Bagent is a smart player with a quick release who broke the all-time NCAA record for touchdown passes. He only needs to play decent for this contrarian play to pay off because the rest of your starting lineup will be stronger.
Seattle has allowed over 300 passing yards in three of five games this season. Last week, Dobbs snapped a four-game streak with at least one touchdown pass. Dobbs has rushed for 41 or more yards in four of his last five games as well. Like Bagent, Dobbs is a cheap contrarian play, allowing your lineup to get beefed up elsewhere. However, keep an eye on if Kyler Murray is active and plays on Sunday.
Contrarian Running Backs
Roschon Johnson has been ruled out, and Khalil Herbert is on injured reserve. D'Onta Foreman's only competition is Travis Homer and Darrynton Evans, whom Foreman out-snaped and had more touches than last week. The Raiders defense has the third-worst expected points contributed for a rush defense this year. Last week, the struggling Patriots rushing attack played the Raiders. Both Ezekiel Elliott and Rhamondre Stevenson averaged over four yards per carry and scored a touchdown in the game. Foreman is a cheap option this week and faces a vulnerable defense.
The Green Bay Packers have had a bottom-10 run defense for a while. They'll likely be without LB De'Vondre Campbell. LB Quay Walker, S Darnell Savage, DT Devonte Wyatt, and CB Jaire Alexander are also questionable. Jaleel McLaughlin has nine or more touches in each of the last three games. The pass-catching ability and big plays have earned McLaughlin his highest snap share of 40% against the Chiefs last week. The Broncos backfield is messy, but McLaughlin is the best value in DFS against a soft run defense.
Kareem Hunt's touches last week and a touchdown seem to be scaring people away from Jerome Ford this week. Ford was more efficient than Hunt last week by nearly a full yard per carry. Ford is 15th in the NFL in rushing YPC over expectation, and the Colts have been a bottom third in fantasy points allowed to RBs.
Predicting the Rams backfield this week is a mess. Zach Evans is getting the hype, but Royce Freeman, Myles Gaskin, and Darrell Henderson also have an opportunity. This situation will clear up closer to kickoff when the active roster is released. My advice is to lean into Henderson or Freeman if you want a very cheap contrarian play this week. Henderson isn't currently available on the main slate, or he would be my pick for this article. They'll play a Steelers run defense that is allowing the 6th highest yards per carry in the NFL.
The Denver Broncos are allowing the most fantasy points to RBs. The Packers signing James Robinson could indicate that Aaron Jones' questionable tag might make him unable to play or at a reduced workload, which leads to A.J. Dillon being a solid contrarian DFS play this week. Dillon is coming off his best game of the season, which is just in time for this juicy matchup.
Contrarian Wide Receivers
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