MISSION
You know the mission. If you don't, read it here (and thanks for checking this out for the first time)
STRAIGHT, NO CHASER: WEEK 14'S CLIFF'S NOTES
This week, I'll be examining a lot of players who should be on your Waiver Wire Rolodex. Are you young enough to wonder what a Rolodex is? It's the precursor to your smartphone's contact list. After your fantasy drafts, it's wise to build a preliminary list of free agents with the talent, depth chart spot, and/or offensive scheme to deliver fantasy value for your rosters if and when an opportunity arises.
The article below will provide expanded thoughts and supporting visuals for the following points. I always provide bullet points for those lacking the time to see the tape examples and expanded commentary.
- Breece Hall: Ready for Liftoff?
- Get the RSP Draft Guide: Pre-Order Discount!
- Lamar Jackson - Odell Beckham Jr Magic
- Flacco-Njoku: A League Winning Combo?
- Football Matchmaking Success: Parker Washington and Trevor Lawrence
- Is Calvin Ridley A Primary WR?
- Demarcus Robinson: Playoff Hero?
- Ezekiel Elliott, Playoff Hero!
- The Bengals Are Getting It Right with Chase Brown
- Fresh Fish
Let's roll...
1. Breece Hall: Ready for Liftoff?
Stuck on a franchise whose logo should be cataloged in Webster's Dictionary next to the word "misfortune," Hall is LeSean McCoy with a bigger frame — a mercurial runner who can make something out of nothing and, with proper support, routinely take an inch and turn it into a mile. Ahh, those pesky qualifiers trip us up from waxing too poetic. In some shape or form, "proper support" has been missing from New York for too long.
Still, if you are a student of running back performance, it's obvious Breece Hall is regaining his pre-injury form and enhancing his reliability as a receiver. If Aaron Rodgers returns and returns to form, even a less-than-steller Jets offensive line won't prevent Hall from emerging as a top-five force in fantasy football.
On a per-game basis, Hall is only 1 catch for 10 yards away from that distinction this year despite the offensive line, the quarterback situation, and not physically performing at 100 percent for at least the first third of the season.
Hall is tied with Christian McCaffrey for second among running backs in receptions (52) and third in passing yards (435). If he had the complementary pieces, he'd see a lot more red-zone and green-zone touches that would at least triple his current rushing TD output (2).
The rise of Hall in the Jets' passing game is notable. From Weeks 1-6, Hall averaged 3 targets per game. After the Week 7 bye, Hall's targets have more than doubled to 6.7 per game.
The target increase is partly due to Jets quarterbacks who either don't have time or the processing skills to win downfield and lean on check-downs or schemed plays to the running back. That running back didn't have to be Hall. Entering the season, the Jets had a few strong pass catchers on the depth chart, and when Hall entered the league, he had lapses catching the ball.
There are six other contests with equal-to-greater examples of Hall's usage as a receiver, but the Texans' game in the rain is a fine illustration of Hall's expanded presence in the passing game.
Breece Hall screen pic.twitter.com/6V2lot9GK5
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 11, 2023
Breece Hall TD pic.twitter.com/56fD6fJ9JI
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 11, 2023
The Jets are targeting Hall from the backfield on screens, check-downs, and leaks. They have also designed vertical shots from the backfield and detached from the formation. The "Yeah, but..." crowd will raise the point that if Aaron Rodgers returns to New York in 2024, will Hall earn as many targets as he did this year, given the circumstances of the passing game this year?
There are two likely answers to this question, and both bode well for Hall:
- Rodgers' success leads to an increase in overall offensive snaps and Hall's passing game production remains steady but proportionately more appropriate to a successful passing scheme modeled after Kyle Shanahan's 49ers (Hall and McCaffrey are nearly even in receiving production this year).
- Hall's receiving production declines 15-30 percent in 2024, but due to an increase in overall offensive snaps and play efficiency, Hall's rushing attempts, red zone usage, and overall production efficiency rises.
Either way, I think Hall has a legitimate shot at becoming the East Coast McCaffrey.
2. Pre-Order Discount For the RSP Rookie Draft Guide
Everything I share in this column and other fantasy work is either a product of my work with the Rookie Scouting Portfolio (RSP) or informs the work I do with it. If you're new to my work and have seen my reference to the RSP or you've thought about getting the RSP but never have, I run an annual early-bird pre-order discount that began last Thursday and runs through Thursday, December 21st.
The RSP is a pre-draft/post-draft analysis of at least 150 rookies at the fantasy positions of QB, RB, WR, and TE entering its 19th year of publication. I publish the pre-draft every April 1 and the post-draft no later than a week after the NFL Draft.
You can pre-order here. You'll create a login and a password, and I'll email you when the pre-draft and post-draft are ready for download from the site.
The RSP is written with both a fantasy football and real football perspective. If you weren't aware, the RSP is one of the two most purchased independent draft guides among NFL personnel staff (scouts/management), according to my source, SMU's Director of Recruiting, Alex Brown, who meets weekly with evaluators as the essential duties of his job at SMU as well as past gigs at Rice and Houston.
I've also done some consulting recently with a known quarterback coach for his clients Brock Purdy and Anthony Richardson.
I'm sharing this because the RSP is a detailed and unique evaluation process that often leads to a departure from the consensus draft media analysis.
RSP subscribers have reaped the benefits over the years, most recently by exploiting the values of high-profile players who weren't rated as highly by others (links are to sample RSP scouting reports):
- Chris Olave
- Justin Jefferson
- A.J. Brown
- Cooper Kupp
- Dalvin Cook
- Nick Chubb
- Lamar Jackson
- Patrick Mahomes II
- Travis Kelce
- Pat Freiermuth
- Brock Purdy
- Isiah Pacheco
- Sam LaPorta
- Jayden Reed
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire
- Andre Williams
- Knile Davis
- Baker Mayfield
- Zach Wilson
- Drew Lock
- Malik Willis
- Quentin Johnston
And, of course, there are also plenty of examples of players who are annually drafted late, if at all, who show the skills to contribute, if not emerge as starters that the RSP identifies early. This helps re-draft and dynasty GMs identify value from the free agent pool as well as leverage favorable trades. Isiah Pacheco, Aaron Jones, and Zonovan Knight are good examples from recent seasons.
The RSP is available for $19.95 through December 22nd and $21.95 afterward. You get the pre-draft, post-draft, and email newsletter updates throughout the year.
A portion of sales proceeds (over $60,000 since 2012) has been going to Darkness to Light — an organization devoted to training individuals and communities on how to prevent and properly address sexual abuse.
You can go here for details on what you get with the purchase — it's a lot, and it's valuable for fantasy GMs.
You can go here to see what others think about the RSP or ask around. Most are pleasantly shocked, and most become annual subscribers. I'm sure you'll find folks who will remember my misses and like anyone in this industry, I have them and will continue to have them.
I will also continue to improve. That's always been an embedded feature of my process by design. It's a transparent process that's in the publication. Here's a sample of some of my evaluation methods.
Fantasy Advice: If you enjoy and value what I do here, on my podcast, TikTok, my site, my YouTube channel, and Twitter, the RSP is the best content I put out. If you prefer to wait until the pre-order discount is over — many tell me they do — I appreciate that as well.