Game Theory
The Lions head to Kansas City to take on the defending champion Chiefs. With Travis Kelce looking less and less certain to suit up, Vegas has shifted the Chiefs’ line from -6.5 to -4.5, and the total from 54.5 to 53. Those are truly noteworthy shifts. It’s rare to see a non-quarterback swing a line by more than a point, but Kelce is another beast. His absence as the team’s only proven, consistent playmaker throws even the juggernaut Chiefs’ expectations into confusion. If he sits, it’ll be up to the DFS world to project where his targets (and touchdown chances) will go. That makes for cheap options, but a LOT of them – and that says nothing of the offense keeping pace on the other side. Vegas expects scoring tonight; where will it come from?
INJURY ROUND-UP
Travis Kelce is doubtful for this game with a knee injury, which will open up considerable offense for the Chiefs.
CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION
KANSAS CITY OFFENSE
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes II ($12,200 FLEX / $18,000 CAPTAIN)
To finish with a winning lineup from a high-scoring game, you need at least one of the quarterbacks on the field. In a game where both quarterbacks spread the ball around as much as they do, it’s seemingly difficult to imagine a game in which Mahomes is not in the optimal lineup. Whether or not to play him in the captain spot is likely a game theory play, as while he very easily could become the top play of the week, if you can get multiple touchdowns from another player, I could allow you to capture more value across the board in a week where there are not a lot of deep options.
Running Back
Jerick McKinnon- Captain Only
McKinnon is relatively simple; you’re hoping for receiving touchdowns of which he had 9 last season. With no Travis Kelce, it is entirely plausible that McKinnon could become a favorite red zone target for Mahomes this week.
Isiah Pacheco- Flex Only
Kansas City backs are rarely easy to project to big games. With only middling volume on the ground, they generally need to catch passes and find the end zone to return big DFS results. And if Kelce sits, these two will likely dominate the goal line tonight. Last year, the duo was given 57 opportunities (carries + targets) from inside the 10. They’d also claim the lion’s share of Kelce's looks – he led the team with 32 such opportunities on his own. Of the two, I’d rather have McKinnon, who famously caught 9 touchdowns last year – 7 from inside the ten.
Wide Receiver
Kadarius Toney ($7,000 FLEX / $10,500)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($5,400 / $8,100)
Skyy Moore ($4,800 / $7,200)
Rashee Rice ($4,600 / $6,900)
Picking the right wide receiver for the Chiefs is always a difficult task. But that doesn’t mean there’s no value here. We know Mahomes and the Chiefs can score at will, even with a piece or two missing. If he’s pushed to throw 35+ times, with or without Kelce, there will be scoring opportunity for these guys. Be sure to aim cheaply, though. Toney is the priciest but always one tweak from sitting down, while Valdes-Scantling cleared 60 yards just 5 times last year. Moore looks like the best value here. He’ll man the slot as Kelce and JuJu Smith-Schuster often did last year and could be a big part of a Kelce-less gameplan. Rookie Rice comes the cheapest, but he could well open 2023 invisible after a shaky camp.
Tight End
Noah Gray ($2,400 FLEX / $3,600 CAPTAIN)
If Kelce sits, Gray will be the chalkiest of chalk as a talented but dirt-cheap backup to a superstar. In that case, even a captain’s nod would make some degree of sense. Just a 5-50-1 line would bring home nearly 7x value from the captain spot – and allow both quarterbacks plus St. Brown into a lineup. If Kelce plays, of course, Gray will lose a lot of chalk, but not all his value. He’d be an ideal dart throw with Kelce clearly hobbled at best.
Under the Radar
Richie James ($2,000 / $3,000)
If Moore doesn’t lock down slot duties, they’ll fall to the veteran James, who also returns punts.
DETROIT OFFENSE
Quarterback
Jared Goff ($9,400 FLEX / $14,100 CAPTAIN)
It’s hard to know what to make of Goff’s 2023 outlook, especially with only marginal receiver talent around him. But Goff should see ample volume tonight; he’s projected to keep pace with Mahomes and the world champions in a 29-24 type of game. If rookies Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta prove electric right off the bat, Goff will turn that volume into slate-breaking numbers.
Running Back
Jahmyr Gibbs ($8,200 FLEX / $12,300 CAPTAIN)
David Montgomery ($6,600 / $9,900)
This pricing seems wonky. Yes, the rookie Gibbs is the more exciting player from a talent standpoint. Yes, he’s a much bigger part of the Lions’ future than Montgomery is. But in the here and now, these two should be valued fairly equally. Gibbs, who never took on 200 touches in a season at Alabama, is no lock to step into some imagined Darren Sproles/Reggie Bush role. Note that just last year, D’Andre Swift saw 15+ touches in just 3 of his 14 games. (He also scored just 5 touchdowns from inside the ten.) Note also that Montgomery is a three-down workhorse of his own, catching 3.0 balls a game over the past 3 years. He carries plenty of his own DK upside, too. Jamaal Williams scored 17 touchdowns in this role last year as the Lions ran the ball 40 times inside the 5 (2nd-most in the league). Montgomery boasts real 20+ potential tonight and makes sense as captain of a lineup that squeezes in both quarterbacks.
Wide Receiver
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($10,200 FLEX / $15,300 CAPTAIN)
Marvin Jones Jr ($6,200 / $9,300)
Josh Reynolds ($2,800 / $4,200)
St. Brown isn’t much of a red-zone threat, and he’s scored on just 11 of his 196 NFL receptions. But tonight’s volume could be truly massive, particularly if the Lions are forced to keep up with high scoring. St. Brown commanded 27% of team targets last year and racked up 20+ DK points 33% of the time he finished a game. Vegas expects this one to be competitive, and it’s hard to see that happening without St. Brown being involved. Jones is back with the Lions but appeared to have lost noticeable steam last year at 32. The price is right, though, for a No. 2 wideout in a potential shootout. Reynolds makes for as good a sub-$3,000 dart throw as any.
Tight End
Sam LaPorta ($5,000 / $7,500)
The rookie looks like an every-down starter from the get-go, and the value could hardly be better for this matchup. LaPorta could well be Goff’s No. 2 option right away, yet he’s priced way, way behind fellow newcomers Jahmyr Gibbs and Marvin Jones Jr For what it’s worth, last year’s Chiefs gave up nine touchdowns to tight ends, and they appear to have lost more than they gained in the offseason.
Under the Radar
(none)
KICKER AND D/ST
Given the high total, this doesn’t look like an ideal place to slot in a kicker. To do that confidently, you’d love to see a low-scoring game between shaky offenses that tend to bog down in the red zone. This one doesn’t look like that, and a game of touchdowns doesn’t help either kicker. Last year’s Chiefs found the end zone on 71% of their red-zone drives (2nd in the NFL), with the hard-charging Lions at 66% (4th).