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Mark Andrews, who commands an average draft position (ADP) of 32 overall and holds the distinction of being the second tight end selected after Travis Kelce, has been a central topic of discussion among football analysts. Many of my peers believe the cost to draft Andrews is disproportionate to the value he offers, especially when compared to a player of Kelce's caliber. However, I firmly believe that Andrews justifies his ADP for the following reasons:

• Todd Monken, the new offensive coordinator, brings a creative, forward-thinking approach and a track record of amplifying the value of tight ends that spans decades.
• Lamar Jackson, now secured for the long term, shares a palpable and potent rapport with Andrews. This connection has been honed and solidified over years of high-pressure situations, with Jackson frequently turning to Andrews in critical moments.
• While the receiving corps has grown more competitive, Monken's strategy to elevate the overall tempo and pace of play is expected to increase the total number of targets. Consequently, any reduction in Andrews' target share should be more than offset by the general increase in opportunities.

Todd Monken Takes Over

The Ravens had seen enough of Greg Roman and opted to replace him in the offseason with Todd Monken. Monken is a seasoned NFL veteran who recently orchestrated the University of Georgia's successive national championship offenses.

Monken's history of productive tight-end usage goes back to 1991 when he was a graduate assistant at Notre Dame. He coached four eventual NFL players, including first-round picks Derek Brown and Irv Smith Jr. His expertise in play-calling and the development of tight ends persisted throughout his career. As the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive coordinator from 2016 to 2018, he aided journeyman Cameron Brate in having his only fantasy-relevant seasons.

As Georgia's offensive coordinator, Monken's tight end usage reached masterclass levels over the past two seasons. The Brock Bowers and Darnell Washington duo was instrumental in the Bulldogs winning back-to-back national championships. Bowers, who has 1,824 career receiving yards and 20 career touchdowns, stands an excellent chance to depart as the all-time school leader in both categories in just three seasons, requiring only 1,269 yards and ten touchdowns to match Terrance Edwards.

Our Kevin Coleman did a fantastic job discussing what Monken's offense will bring to Baltimore in this insightful Lamar Jackson Spotlight. The most striking statistic was Monken's offensive balance, with Georgia being the only team to achieve more than 290 passing yards and 200 rushing yards.

This tweet from James Light does a great job illustrating what Monken's offense does:

Great call sequence from Georgia/Todd Monken vs Oregon.

UGA uses a compressed shift & runs Z reverse off of crack toss action. Later in the quarter they hit an explosive play w/ a 3 level flood from the same shift & action.https://t.co/kMk3SxEubE

pic.twitter.com/2eDmsGnlJe

— James Light (@JamesALight) January 8, 2023

Monken uses heavy pre-snap motion to destabilize defenses. He stacks the tight ends on the right side of the line, then hits a reverse off the play flow moving behind heavy tight end sets. Later, he employs this run action to freeze the defense, with Bowers blocking briefly before quickly releasing into the seam for a drag behind the defense.

Given Baltimore's personnel, it's easy to envision these maneuvers being effective. Zay Flowers or Devin Duvernay can punish defenses off the reverse action, while Andrews and Isaiah Likely can align in the stack. This shifting and misdirection immobilize defenses, and with Jackson at quarterback rather than Stetson Bennett (Georgia's quarterback), the offensive ceiling elevates.

But what does Monken need to demonstrate to help Andrews bounce back after a lackluster 2022 season? What is Andrews' potential within this system? Where is he trending historically in terms of tight end production? Most importantly, can he justify an ADP of 32 overall?

Don't Call It A Comeback

Andrews was selected as TE2 with an ADP of 16th in 2022. He fell short of expectations despite finishing as TE3 with 12.7 points per game. However, the end-of-year figures tell the complete story.

Andrews thrived for the first six weeks of the season, averaging 19.1 points per game (ppg), just behind Travis Kelce's 21.8. That 19.1 ppg would have been the third-best tight end season in the last decade, only surpassed by Kelce's performances in 2022 and 2020. In Week 7, Andrews appeared on the injury report due to a knee problem, and in Week 8, he exited in the 2nd quarter with a shoulder injury. These injuries forced him to miss Week 9 and, coupled with Lamar Jackson's season-ending injury in Week 12, effectively turned him into a fantasy liability for the second half of the year, as his scoring plummeted to 8.4 points per game.

Jordan Akins scored nearly as many fantasy points as Andrew from Week 7 onward.

Table: 2022 Tight Ends, Sorted by PPR Fantasy Points per Game (Weeks 7-18)

Combining a strong final five games in 2020, all of 2021, and the first six of 2022, Andrews had a 29-game streak where he averaged 6.1 receptions, 76.6 yards, and 0.6 touchdowns for a total of 17.36 points per game.

Either Andrews ended one of the most impressive tight end runs ever, or the combination of injuries and Tyler Huntley stepping in for Lamar Jackson resulted in disappointing results. In this instance, injuries provide a clear explanation for the decline we witnessed from a player who had previously shown a consistently high level of performance.

Scheme Changes

Greg Roman implemented one of the most unique personnel packages in an offense designed to accentuate Jackson's rushing ability. The Ravens were routinely among the league leaders in utilizing fullbacks, with Patrick Ricard participating in 64% of the team's snaps, the second-highest rate after Andrews. Roman increased this emphasis, using the rarely seen 22 personnel, with Ricard and blocking tight end Josh Oliver, who played in 48% of the team's snaps. Meanwhile, tight end Isaiah Likely was just behind at a 38% snap count.

Oliver is no longer with the team, having signed a substantial free-agent contract with the Vikings. This leaves the Ravens without a traditional blocking tight end in a rotation that should include Andrews, Likely, and Charlie Kolar, a 4th round pick in 2022 who missed much of his rookie season due to an injury. Ricard also expects a much smaller role, stating, “It may not be quite as much as I was used with Greg Roman, but I'm okay with that. As long as we're winning games and I'm doing my part to help win, that's all I really care about.”

Monken intends to use a lot more 3- and 4-receiver sets, a luxury the Ravens may not have been able to contemplate after Rashod Bateman's limited season. The additions of Zay Flowers, Odell Beckham Jr, and Nelson Agholor have significantly expanded the available options.

Considering all these factors, it could be easy to worry about Andrews delivering or exceeding his ADP. But Monken has a solution for that: tempo.

The Ravens have vacillated from ranking near the top of plays per game in 2019 and 2021, with over 68, down to near the bottom with 62 in 2020 and 2022. However, Monken stresses the importance of increasing this tempo. A faster tempo means more plays, and more plays mean more opportunities for fantasy points.

Another emphasis Monken has made is on explosive plays. Rich Worsell conducted a thorough analysis highlighting that the Ravens only had 69 explosive pass plays (passes over 16 yards). Only the Pittsburgh Steelers (playing with a rookie quarterback) and the Los Angeles Rams (with Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp out of the lineup) had fewer. In contrast, the Kansas City Chiefs nearly doubled the Ravens' number, tallying 124.

In summary, while Andrews faces increased target competition, the potential for volume and efficiency increases within this scheme.

Historical Context

Andrews fell short of lofty expectations in 2022. However, those expectations may have been a bit ambitious to begin with. Only two tight ends in history have exceeded 100 receptions and 1,300 yards in a season: Andrews and Travis Kelce.

Table: Tight Ends with 100+ Receptions and 1,300+ Yards in a Season, NFL History

Kelce has accomplished this three times since 2018, with Patrick Mahomes as his quarterback. In comparison, Andrews achieved this despite playing in an offense that has thrown nearly ten fewer passes per game with Jackson vs. Mahomes. Despite having a smaller share, Andrews has seized a larger portion of it than Kelce, with a 29% and 26.6% target share each of the last two seasons. This is the highest share for the tight end position in both years. Over his career, Kelce's highest share was 26.6% in 2018, typically falling in the low 20% range in most years.

Viewing Andrews's career through a different lens provides a fuller picture of his historical significance. Only five tight ends have topped 330 receptions and 4,300 yards total through their first five seasons.

Table: Tight Ends with 330+ Receptions and 4,300+ Yards through 5 Seasons, NFL History

Undeniably impressive. Kittle is just one year ahead of Andrews but nearly doubled his career-high in touchdowns in his sixth season. Winslow is a Hall of Famer. Gates will be eligible for the Hall in 2024, having retired with the most career touchdowns for a tight end.

Recent Stats

Projections

Final Thoughts

Mark Andrews has proven himself as an elite performer, commencing his career with one of the most impressive five-year runs for a tight end ever. He faces the most target competition of his career with the arrival of Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr However, Todd Monken's scheme has heavily featured tight ends, and increases in pace and passing volume should compensate for any reduction in target share. Andrews should be aggressively pursued as a game-changer in the tight end position, with plenty of potential to exceed his ADP.