Midway through the first quarter of the Falcons' Week 18 matchup against the Buccaneers, Desmond Ridder escaped the pocket, rolled to his right, and found Drake London, who was wide open in the middle of the field. Ridder was 0/2 before turning to his favorite target, and that connection ignited a career-best performance from the then-rookie wideout. London finished the day with six receptions on eight targets for 120 yards. That performance put a period on a solid, albeit unspectacular, opening act. London finished the season with 72 receptions, 866 yards, and four touchdowns. He finished tied for 25th with 117 targets. He was the WR43 in points per game but finished inside the top 30 in overall positional scoring. Despite the mediocrity and the Falcons' run-first tendencies, London is poised for a massive sophomore campaign. With Desmond Ridder slated as the full-time starter, the natural progression of year-two wideouts, and the lack of challenging target competition, London could finish as a top-20 wide receiver in 2023.

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The Desmond Ridder Sample

Atlanta's quarterback play in 2022 was a rollercoaster, but more like the rides in the kids' area. Marcus Mariota completed just 61.3% of his passes (27th among qualifying passers), had a Bad Throw % of 22.5%, and averaged 170.7 passing yards per game. He averaged 14 completions per game, and the passing offense was often stagnant when he was under center.

Desmond Ridder wasn't spectacular over his four-game sample, but the offense opened up. Ridder completed 18 balls per game, averaged 177 yards, and took care of the football. His On Target % was 5%, and his Bad Throw % was 4.3% better than Mariota. Mariota was more efficient on a per-attempt basis, but the coaching staff instilled confidence in their rookie quarterback; enough to let him throw the football more. And when he did, London was his favorite target.

In Ridder's four starts to conclude 2022, Drake London accumulated 36 targets for an average of 9.0 per game. That number ranked 11th over that timeframe and would've ranked 7th throughout an entire season. Over that span, London hauled in 69.4% of those targets, ranking fourth in the NFL ahead of names like Justin Jefferson and Amon-Ra St. Brown. His target share was 33.0%. 38% of his total receiving yards (333) and 35% of his total receptions (25) came in the final four weeks. Furthermore, during that timeframe, Drake London was the WR12. In points per game, he was WR16.

Kyle Pitts's absence certainly contributed to London's emergence during that time. Still, the Falcons treated London as the No. 1 - or 1A - option even when he was healthy. The bottom line: without Ridder under center, the Falcons treated London like an elite option on a per-attempt basis. With Ridder under center, the Falcons treated London like an elite No. 1 receiver without contingencies.

The Second-Year Leap

Recent trends suggest that wide receivers traditionally see a substantial increase in production in their sophomore campaign. Since 2014, first-round wide receivers who saw more than ten targets in their rookie or sophomore campaigns (to remove egregious injury outliers) earned the following in their sophomore season:

• 21.77% more targets
• 29.73% more receptions
• 45.53% more yards
• 47.40% more fantasy points

66.67% of wideouts experienced an increase in targets, 59.26% experienced an increase in receptions, 74.07% experienced a rise in yards, and 59.26% saw a bump in fantasy points. Just seven players from the 27 who qualified were selected inside the Top 10 of the NFL Draft. Here's how their performance changed in Year 2:

Extrapolating those numbers and applying them to London's rookie year is ill-advised, as those increases would grant London one of the most prolific receiving seasons in NFL history. Draft capital doesn't always indicate success, either. Still, history suggests that top-ten picks traditionally improve drastically from Year 1 to Year 2.

Additionally, the list of round-one wideouts who eclipsed 750 yards as a rookie in that timeframe boasts some prominent names:

• Sammy Watkins
• Mike Evans
• Odell Beckham Jr
• Amari Cooper
• DJ Moore Jr.
• Calvin Ridley
• Jerry Jeudy
• CeeDee Lamb
• Justin Jefferson
• Ja'Marr Chase
• Jaylen Waddle
• DeVonta Smith

Extrapolation is not the end-all, be-all, and London isn't guaranteed to experience a second-year leap precisely like the others on that list. Still, history suggests London is due for a boost in production as a sophomore in 2023.

Where are the Targets?

While the Falcons made yet another skill-position pick inside the top ten of the 2023 NFL Draft, London escaped the bulk of the offseason without a scratch regarding his target competition. Last year, just three Falcons earned more than 50 targets: Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Olamide Zaccheaus. The latter joined the Eagles this offseason. The Falcons signed Mack Hollins to a 1-year, $2.5 million contract during the opening stages of free agency. Hollins earned 94 targets for the Raiders in 2022, accumulating 690 yards on 57 receptions. They also added Jonnu Smith via trade. Smith was disappointing in New England but was at his best with Arthur Smith in Tennessee. And, of course, the running back position received a massive upgrade with the addition of Bijan Robinson, a capable receiving back who can line up as a slot receiver when needed.

Despite the additions of seemingly capable weapons, London's raw targets should increase. Arthur Smith has shown a preference for featuring two receivers.

The 2022 season was an anomaly, as Kyle Pitts was the clear second option but dealt with his injury over the back half of the season. London's 29.25% target share was far and away the best mark of any receiver in an Arthur Smith-led offense, and even if that decreases, he should receive more targets. When Desmond Ridder took over, he averaged five more attempts per game than Marcus Mariota. As aforementioned, the offense opened up, and Arthur Smith was able to work his magic. He consistently schemed London wide open, and the increased passing volume looked like a mainstay.

If Ridder's five attempts per game held into 2023 and London's target rate declined to 26% (the difference between the average Option A in a Smith offense and London's rookie-year target share), London would still receive nine more targets on the year. If his rookie year share held up, he'd earn 142 targets. Assuming the same or better efficiency, London's potential floor would be:

• 142 targets
• 87 receptions
• 1048 yards
• Five touchdowns
• 221.8 fantasy points

This floor would have finished as the WR19.

While Hollins is likely an upgrade from Zaccheaus, and Jonnu Smith is undoubtedly an upgrade from MyCole Pruitt as the No. 2 tight end, neither is a move-the-needle addition. London and Pitts remain the A and B options, with Bijan Robinson offering the most dynamic option C Smith has ever had. Projecting London's target share to stay near 30% is unrealistic, but the difference in overall volume should balance out his raw targets.

The Counter

While Drake London looks primed for a sophomore breakout, a few hypothetical situations could comprise a counterargument for that outcome.

The hypothetical: Desmond Ridder loses the starting role to Taylor Heinicke. Heinicke prefers Pitts as his Option A, relegating London to the secondary target share.

Why it's unlikely: Arthur Smith is on record saying he expects Ridder to take the next step. The Falcons were so convinced of this that they stayed out of the bidding war for Lamar Jackson this offseason. Smith raves about Ridder's mental makeup, and all signs point to Heinicke remaining the backup quarterback.

The hypothetical: Ridder wins the job, but his four-game sample was misleading, and his output becomes more similar to Marcus Mariota.

Why it's unlikely: If Ridder's output becomes more similar to Marcus Mariota, Smith will likely pull the trigger on starting Heinicke. The Falcons are positioned to compete for the NFC South title and won't be patient when making quarterback decisions.

The hypothetical: Kyle Pitts re-establishes himself as the No. 1 option with the better quarterback play, and the offense doesn't increase passing volume enough for London to improve as a fantasy performer.

Why it's unlikely: This is the most realistic counterargument, as Kyle Pitts' usage when healthy was similar to London's. Their targets-per-game marks were close in 2022, but that entire sample was with Mariota under center. Pitts is a unicorn of a weapon in the Smith offense, and it's more likely that he and London are the 1A and 1B than London is the one and Pitts is the two. Still, London was the top option as a rookie, and natural growth suggests he should maintain that status.

Projections and Stats

Final Thoughts

Drake London was a widely-criticized college prospect, as his game doesn't fit the style the NFL is trending towards. He landed with an offensive coordinator who thrives on putting his best players in the best position to succeed, and his style perfectly matches the Falcons' identity. That showed during his rookie year, but the volume and lack of competent quarterback play limited London's fantasy ceiling.

In Year 2, with Desmond Ridder fully set to start the season, London could be on the verge of fantasy superstardom. The Falcons' offense produced 554 targets with Matt Ryan under center in 2021, a stark difference from the 400 in 2022. If Smith were to give Ridder full reigns and increase passing volume to that rate, London would have a ceiling inside the top ten.

While that's unlikely, London should still become a viable fantasy performer in 2023. With the natural growth that second-year receivers historically experience, With Ridder's presence as the starting quarterback, along with a lack of challenging target competition, London looks ready for the next step. With a Best Ball ADP of WR27, London is the perfect target in the fourth round. With receivers like Mike Williams, Christian Watson, and Christian Kirk going in that area, the safety of London, combined with the upside of the sophomore breakout, make him the easy selection. WR27 is near his floor if everything goes wrong, and his upside is that of a top-20 wide receiver. With Arthur Smith's confidence in Ridder to "take the next step" emitting from the entire organization, fantasy managers should feel confident in Ridder to bring his top weapon along with him.

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