Depending on who you ask, DJ Moore is either the next A.J. Brown or trapped in an offense that can't support fantasy production for wide receivers. But let's take a closer look at Moore and his potential in the 2023 season.

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Moore's career has been a case study in "motivated perception." Brian Resnick dove into the principle in this piece for Vox. The start of his career exposed him to various interpretations due to the constant changes in quarterbacks (10) and offensive coordinators (3). Now, in his sixth season, he faces questions about his touchdown-scoring ability, his consistency as a deep threat, and whether we've seen the best of him.

Who is DJ Moore?

Blind Resume. Part 1

The first sampling is a group of dominant fantasy wide receivers. The group placed several players inside the Top 12 for wide receiver PPR scoring. They played a crucial role as primary targets on their respective teams, often operating in the short to intermediate range. What set them apart was their ability to make explosive plays after catching the ball. It's worth noting that these receivers were in the early stages of their careers and played in a variety of offensive systems, including run-heavy schemes. Additionally, their quarterbacks did not finish among the Top 12 in QB1 rankings.

The group included:

• Amon-Ra St. Brown
• DJ Moore
• CeeDee Lamb
• Garrett Wilson

This sample was Moore’s 2021 season. It was his second year in Joe Brady's offensive scheme, but he faced some challenges with the rotating cast of quarterbacks, including Sam Darnold and Cam Newton. Despite these obstacles, the Panthers deployed Moore as their primary receiving option, showcasing his exceptional skills after the catch.

Blind Resume. Part 2

These players belong to the elite group of vertical threats. While their relatively lower passing volumes and volatility prevented them from reaching the top tier of PPR scoring, they have established themselves as reliable fantasy options.

The group included:

• DJ Moore
• Chris Olave
• Terry McLaurin
• Mike Evans

This sample was Moore’s 2020 season, his first year with Joe Brady. His quarterback for much of the season was Teddy Bridgewater. Under Brady's system, which heavily relied on crossing routes at various depths, Moore, along with Robbie Anderson and Curtis Samuel, achieved career-high numbers, with each surpassing 850 receiving yards.

Following the 2020 season, Samuel departed in free agency, forcing Moore to adjust his playing style. He shifted from being primarily a vertical threat to incorporating more underneath routes into his repertoire. These two seasons illustrate a consistent pattern in Moore's usage, as he has alternated between playing a high-volume role in short and intermediate routes and being a deep-field stretcher. The fact that he has excelled in both roles demonstrates his versatility and adaptability, especially considering the turnover at the quarterback position and the multiple offensive coordinators he has played under. But what does that versatility look like for the Bears?

Luke Getsy’s Offensive Scheme

After joining the Chicago Bears from Green Bay, offensive coordinator Luke Getsy introduced a run-pass option (RPO) heavy scheme that primarily relied on vertical passes and screens. When it comes to RPO plays, Justin Fields ranked 7th in the league in pass attempts and 21st in play-action pass attempts. Overall, Fields threw the 27th most passes in the league, with 45% of those passes coming from RPO or play-action situations. Comparatively, quarterbacks like Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes II had 35% of their pass attempts from these situations, while Jalen Hurts led the league with 55%. Fields' average intended air yards per attempt of 9.1 ranked him 5th in the league, highlighting the frequency of vertical attacks in the Bears' offensive strategy.

Moore has shown his proficiency in the vertical passing game. Over the past four seasons, he ranks 17th out of 84 qualifying receivers in yards per route run. At the very least, Moore is expected to maintain his role as a deep threat, which has allowed him to consistently remain on the fringes of WR2 territory, even during his statistically weakest season since his rookie year in 2018. Despite the Panthers' low passing volume, Moore received 118 targets, which was the second-lowest in his career. However, it is worth noting that the Bears allocated a significant number of targets (109 combined) to lesser-known receivers like Dante Pettis, Equanimeous St. Brown, Byron Pringle, and Velus Jones.

Moore can break through and exceed a WR21 ADP through the screen game. That is where Getsy's history with Green Bay and Davante Adams comes in.

One potential area where Moore could excel and potentially surpass his ADP of WR21 is in the screen game. This is where Getsy's previous experience with Green Bay and Davante Adams becomes relevant. Many football fans have witnessed the Packers execute their signature play, where they utilize a play-action pass or quick RPO action to set up a screen pass to Adams. Adams ranked 1st, 3rd, and 4th in the three years playing in Matt LaFleur's system.

In Getsy's first year with the Bears, he doubled Darnell Mooney's usage in screen plays, increasing it from around 11% to 22% of his targets. Moore has hovered around that 11% mark in recent seasons. If Moore can add an additional three points per game through easy completions via the screen game, it could be enough to elevate him into fringe WR1 territory. This showcases the fine line between being classified as a WR1 or a WR2.

However, there may be another avenue through which Moore can boost his fantasy points.

Use Him Like Deebo Samuel

The top spots on the receiver rushing board are not surprising. Deebo Samuel led the way with 232 rushing yards, although it was a decrease from his 365 yards in the previous year. Coming in second was Moore's former teammate Curtis Samuel, who has a background as a college running back. However, what's interesting is that several Bears wide receivers, including Jones, St. Brown, Claypool, and Pettis, all factored as runners at times. Combined, they accounted for 26 rushing attempts and 253 yards, which would place them third and first, respectively, in terms of total rushing yards among receivers.

So where does Moore fit in?

Moore’s ten rushing attempts placed seventh for all receivers, behind the two Samuels and kick returners like Brandon Powell, Jamal Agnew, and Devin Duvernay. More to the point, Moore has flashed this involvement and skillset in the past, with 172 rushing yards as a rookie.

While screen game usage and involvement in the run game won't single-handedly make Moore a WR1, they do add additional dimensions to his game. Think of it as building layers on a snowball, where each smaller piece contributes to creating a larger whole.

The Rushing Team Death Sentence

You'll hear it repeated everywhere when it comes to Moore's outlook for the 2023 season: "The Bears are a run-first offense."

And it's not entirely unfounded. The Bears indeed prioritize the running game and build their offensive strategies around its success. With the improvements made to their offensive line, the undeniable talent of Fields at quarterback, and the depth of their backfield, their commitment to running the football should yield positive results. However, this emphasis on the run doesn't mean Moore's fantasy prospects are doomed.

In the recent Bijan Robinson Spotlight, we noted the Falcons, who rank tenth in team rushing attempts since 1990. Surprisingly, the Bears were only one attempt behind them. Now, the question arises: How have the top receiving options on these run-heavy teams performed?

The leading receivers on the run-heaviest teams fared surprisingly well. These teams featured seven different 1,000-yard receivers. White and Thigpen would have qualified top-12 fantasy receivers in 2022, while Mason and Ward would have broken the WR2 threshold. Andrews also scored enough to hit that threshold with the bonus of tight-end eligibility.

Fantasy football is all about accumulating points, and the logic behind it is quite simple. Offenses that generate high rushing volume tend to run more plays overall. So, while it may be true that the Bears are labeled as a run-first offense, what really matters for Moore's fantasy value is his ability to distinguish himself from the other receiving options on the team and earn a substantial share of the targets.

Fortunately, Moore has proven capable of doing just that in the past. In the 2022 season, he accounted for a staggering 49% of the Panthers' air yards. This impressive figure led the entire NFL and even surpassed second-place Davante Adams by 7%.

The Bottom Line

Passing volume poses a potential challenge for the Bears' pass catchers, and this is a key factor contributing to Moore's current ADP as a late WR2. Many fantasy football sources also value him lower than future first-round picks in dynasty leagues. The worst-case scenario has been baked in.

Footballguys’ Adam Harstad, one of the brightest analysts on our staff, emphasizes the inevitability of being wrong about player evaluation. To mitigate this, it's important to consider the ways in which our misjudgments can turn out favorably.

Moore has a skill set that allows for creative usage in all elements of an offense. He is stepping into an offense starved for playmakers, particularly in the receiving corps. As a late WR2 selection, the risk associated with drafting Moore is minimal. However, if he emerges as the centerpiece of the Bears' offensive game plan, leveraging his skill set and the opportunities within the offense, the potential payoff could be significant.

Ultimately, people tend to see what aligns with their own perspectives. From my standpoint, Moore represents an exceptional buy-low opportunity.