Go here for this week's Passing Matchups.
Top Rushing Matchup
Kansas City vs San Francisco
Kansas City's rushing offense has been a significant reason they've made the Super Bowl this season. This team remains committed to the running game even when it has struggled, as we saw last week when Isiah Pacheco had 68 yards on 24 carries against Baltimore. Pacheco has averaged 21 carries per game throughout the playoffs despite not having more than 20 carries in a game during the regular season. The Chiefs had hoped that they would get some positive injury news this week for Jerick McKinnon and All-Pro guard Joe Thuney, but both seem to be a long shot to play this week as Andy Reid said, "Jerick is not practicing. I'd tell you it's slim for him to be out there", and on Joe Thuney "I think it's a long shot." Without Thuney, this is an offensive line that looks completely different and no longer the elite interior unit that it was for most of the season. Center Creed Humphrey continues to be one of the best young centers in the NFL, while right guard Trey Smith is an above-average player, but the Chiefs have had to move back up center Nick Allegretti to left guard, which caused blocking issues, especially when you factor in that they have some of the worst tackles in the NFL as Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor have both been horrendous in run-blocking.
San Franciso's run defense has struggled in their two playoff games thus far. The 49ers are allowing 159 rushing yards and 5.6 yards-per-carry per game throughout the playoffs, with both Aaron Jones and David Montgomery topping 90 yards. Big plays have been the killer for the 49ers, as they've allowed a 40-yard run in each game, with Jameson Williams and Aaron Jones having big plays against this defense. The issue for the 49ers continues to be that they put a significant amount of pressure on their linebackers, as this is a defensive line that is designed to rush the passer with Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, Javon Hargrave, Chase Young, and Randy Gregory seeing the vast majority of the snaps. Up the middle with Armstead and Hargrave, the 49ers are under-sized compared to some of the elite run-stopping units in the NFL. Dre Greenlaw and Fred Warner are two of the best run-stopping linebackers, but they have to essentially be perfect every play, consistently needing to shed blockers to make the play. The good news for the 49ers is that Ji'Ayir Brown returned from injury against the Lions after missing three games. Brown is a significant upgrade compared to Logan Ryan, who was a liability as the team tries to replace the injured Talanoa Hufanga, who was lost for the season earlier this year. This is still a defense that allowed just 65 yards to opposing running backs on the season, which was the second-best in the NFL, so they could quickly correct and get back to a very good run defense.
Bottom Rushing Matchup
San Francisco vs Kansas City
Christian McCaffrey and the 49ers rushing offense continue to be among the most consistent units in the NFL. While McCaffrey has not had a 100-yard rushing game throughout the playoffs, he has topped 90 in both games, has scored 2 touchdowns in each contest, and is averaging 5.1 yards per carry both in negative game scripts as the 49ers have had to come back from deficits against both Green Bay and Detroit to make it to the Super Bowl this week. McCaffrey has now topped 75 rushing yards in 9 of his last 10 games. This is a rushing attack that frequently runs behind Trent Williams, who is amongst the league's best left tackles. Despite weighing in at 320 pounds, he is amongst the fastest tackles in the NFL. This allows him to be dynamic and pull or be a lead blocker downfield, a rare trait for such a large tackle.
Kansas City's rushing defense is coming off its best performance of the season as they eliminated the rushing attack of the Baltimore Ravens. Baltimore only attempted 15 carries, 8 of which came from Lamar Jackson. This is a rushing defense that has had consistency issues as they allowed 4.6 yards per carry on the season, but for a significant portion of the season, they've shown that they can be amongst the league's best. Throughout the playoffs, they have not allowed a running back to top 65 rushing yards. One area that could be a concern heading into this game is the rushing of Brock Purdy. While he is not known as a mobile quarterback, as he has just two games this season over 20 yards rushing, he did show that ability last week when he ran for 48 yards against Detroit. Kansas City has struggled as of late against mobile quarterbacks as they've allowed five straight quarterbacks to run for 25 yards or more the heavy blitz scheme of Steve Spagnuolo - combined with safeties who struggle against the run in Justin Reid and Mike Edwards - can lead to some big scrambles from opposing quarterbacks. The Chiefs got good news this week as it looks like linebacker Willie Gay Jr will return after suffering a neck injury in the AFC Championship game. Gay is a run-stopping specialist splitting time with Drue Tranquill, who both play alongside Nick Bolton, the defensive signal caller. One key thing to watch this week is that the Chiefs' defensive line is undersized with the recent loss of Charles Omenihu at defensive end. The Chiefs will start Mike Danna and George Karlaftis, who are both under 265 pounds. Chris Jones is the only player above 300 pounds on the defensive line. This could create some difficult matchups against one of the larger offensive lines in the NFL in San Francisco. We could see Mike Pennel get more than the 20-25% of snaps that he has typically seen as the 335-pound defensive lineman could add size to the front, while Malik Herring could also rotate in at defensive end to try to fill some of the size void created by the injury to Omenihu.
Week 22 Rushing Matchups | ||
Kansas City | vs San Francisco | Neutral |
San Francisco | vs Kansas City | Tough |