Passing Matchups Super Bowl

Go here for this week's Rushing Matchups.

Top Passing Matchup

Kansas City vs San Francisco

Kansas City's passing game this playoffs seems to have stopped trying to find another level and has focused on refining their passing game through consolidation of targets. Throughout the regular season, this offense tried to get another wide receiver to step up amongst Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kadarius Toney, Justin Watson, and Richie James. Throughout the playoffs, 61% of the receptions were by Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice. Kelce has been tremendous throughout the postseason. Despite having a poor regular season compared to his standards, Kelce is averaging 87.3 yards per game and has three touchdowns in the team's three playoff games. Rashee Rice has been tremendous for the Chiefs as the rookie is averaging 82 yards per game over his last nine games, which leads the team. The Chiefs may get Skyy Moore back this week. The 2022 second-round pick had a disappointing 2023 season, but from a talent perspective, he's an upgrade over players like Richie James and Justin Watson. The key for the Chiefs will be whether their offensive line can hold up against the defensive line of the 49ers. The Chiefs lost All-Pro Joe Thuney to a pectoral injury, which moves backup center Nick Allegretti to guard.

San Francisco's pass defense has been amongst the league's best this season, even though the regular season passing yards allowed do not fully indicate that. Through Week 17, the 49ers allowed a very average 237 passing yards per game (18th in the NFL), but this was largely skewed by blowout game scripts and garbage time production from opposing teams throwing the ball while facing a significant deficit. Despite the yardage totals, the 49ers allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, which was primarily set by the fewest passing touchdowns allowed in the NFL this year at just 1.1 per game. The one issue for the 49ers is that despite all of the star power on their defensive line led by Nick Bosa, Javon Hargrave, Arik Armstead, and Chase Young, their sack numbers should be better than what they are. The 49ers were tied for 8th in sacks this season with 2.8 per game, and in the playoffs, are averaging just 1.0 sacks per game. In the secondary, Charvarius Ward has developed into one of the league's best cornerbacks and was recognized with a Second-Team All-Pro award, while Deommodore Lenoir is a very reliable slot cornerback. One thing to watch is Ambry Thomas, who was a very solid cornerback throughout the regular season after a disappointing 2022. However, he had surgery about a month ago on a broken hand. Throughout the playoffs, he just does not appear to have the confidence he had in the regular season and has been a liability in their two playoff games so far.

Bottom Passing Matchup

San Francisco vs Kansas City

Brock Purdy and the 49ers have not put together a complete game yet this postseason. Last week against Detroit, they fell behind 24-7 at halftime before mounting a tremendous second-half comeback while trailing for most of the game against Green Bay in their first playoff game. Despite the recent inconsistency, this remains one of the most talented offenses in the NFL. After leaving the Green Bay game due to injury, Deebo Samuel rebounded nicely in the Conference Championship game, leading the team with 8 receptions for 89 yards. With Deebo's return, we did see George Kittle step back into a secondary receiving role, as he now has five or fewer targets in four of his last five games with Deebo Samuel in the lineup. The offensive line for San Francisco is led by First-Team All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams, who has established himself as one of the league's best offensive linemen as the 49ers have been sacked the sixth-fewest times in the NFL this season. The matchup for the offensive line against the pressure-heavy Chiefs will be critical as we've seen Brock Purdy make mistakes when under pressure, as indicated by the four-interception game against another pressure-heavy team in Baltimore in Week 16.

Kansas City's defense is designed to put pressure on the quarterback and to stop the pass. Throughout the regular season, the Chiefs allowed just 197 yards passing per game, which was the fourth-best in the NFL as no quarterback threw for 300 yards against this defense, and only Kirk Cousins back in Week 5 topped 275 yards. Throughout the playoffs, this is a great unit, as they're allowing just 219 yards per game despite facing 38 pass attempts per contest (5.7 yards per attempt). A key to this week is going to be the pass rush, as the Chiefs, led by Chris Jones, George Karlaftis, and Mike Danna, were second in the NFL in sacks with 57 (3.4 per game), but in the playoffs, we have seen them dip a little bit to just 2.0 sacks per game despite facing six more pass attempts per game. In the secondary, this unit is led by the versatile Trent McDuffie, who played a big role in shutting down Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs. The All-Pro cornerback has developed into arguably the league's best and can line up both in the slot and on the outside, playing both at a very high level. Alongside McDuffie, L'Jarius Snead has consistently proven that he is an above-average outside cornerback, while the team rotates their third cornerback as Joshua Williams, Chamarri Conner, and Jaylen Watson situationally split time with Conner playing the slot when McDuffie moves to the outside. Kansas City has also been excellent at defending running backs, as they're allowing just 28 receiving yards per game to the position, the seventh-best in the NFL this season. This is key, as defending Christian McCaffrey will be critical for the Chiefs this week to avoid a big receiving day from the dynamic running back.