This article highlights some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) and reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not considered, so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is simply to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week.
Favorable Matchups
WR Courtland Sutton (DEN vs. MIN) vs. Mekhi Blackmon
The Minnesota defense has played much better of late, but the secondary continues to struggle. They are currently allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers and continue to blitz at a high rate, leaving their perimeter corners on an island. Akayleb Evans hurt his ankle last week and is questionable coming into the weekend. It will be a combination of Andrew Booth Jr and Blackmon on Sutton. Look for Russell Wilson to try to get the ball out quickly to Sutton and let him run. Blackmon is currently allowing 0.31 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 22% of the time. Look for the high volume for Sutton to continue this week.
WR Terry McLaurin (WAS vs. NYG) vs. Adoree' Jackson
There is nothing but uncertainty for the Giants at cornerback this week. Jackson missed week 10 with a concussion and could be out again. Even when fully healthy, the Giants currently allow the most fantasy points to opposing receivers and are being heavily targeted. Jackson has been torched to the tune of 0.48 fantasy points per coverage snap and is targeted 22% of the time. Deonte Banks also allows 0.40 fantasy points per coverage snap on the other side. McLaurin should feast this week against the Giants.
WR Brandon Aiyuk (SF vs. TB) vs. Jamel Dean
Tampa Bay has suffered a rash of injuries in the secondary that has extended into this week, and it is a big reason why they have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers. Carlton Davis III has missed three weeks, including week 10, and has been sorely missed. Dean has had to try to hold things down on his own, and it has not gone well. San Francisco will be at full strength in their receiver group and Tampa Bay will have to find a way to slow both Aiyuk and a healthy Deebo Samuel. Dean is currently allowing 0.39 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 19% of the time. Look for Aiyuk to get favorable matchups for the majority of the game.
WR Tyler Lockett (SEA vs. LAR) vs. Duke Shelley
Seattle has been hit or miss when it comes to their receiver group due to regression from Geno Smith. That could change this week for Lockett as he gets a prime matchup against Shelley on the outside. Shelley is currently allowing 0.55 fantasy points per overage snap and is being picked on 29% of the time. DK Metcalf should see more of Ahkello Witherspoon on the other side but is prone to move all over the field. Upgrade both Seattle receivers this week in what could be a pivotal divisional matchup.
WR Tank Dell (HOU vs. ARZ) vs. Marco Wilson
Even with the return of Nico Collins, Dell should continue his tear with a prime matchup against Wilson on the outside. Dell has seen 25 targets over the past 2 weeks and has become a favorite weapon of C.J. Stroud. Wilson is currently allowing 0.53 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 23% of the time. Arizona ranks 30th against the run and that could lead Houston to go run-heavy, but Dell should still be heavily targeted when they do throw the ball.
WR DeVonta Smith (PHI vs. KC) vs. Jaylen Watson
The big storyline will be A.J. Brown with L'Jarius Sneed in shadow coverage, but that leaves Watson to contend with Smith on the other side. Watson is currently allowing 0.58 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 28% of the time. Dallas Goedert is also out with an injury, which should allow even more targets for Smith with Julio Jones not fully up to speed. The Eagles are going to air it out against this Kansas City defense and Smith is poised to have the biggest game of any Philadelphia receiver.
TE Dalton Kincaid (BUF vs. NYJ)
It feels like it goes without saying at this point, but Kincaid is a must-start at tight end. Kincaid finished last week with another touchdown and another 15-point performance. He is quickly becoming a favorite target and plays more snaps out wide than almost every other tight end in the league. The Jets' secondary has been elite and will be a problem for Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs, but their biggest weakness is tight end right now. They have allowed more touchdowns to the position than any other team in football and should be the area the Bills attack most this week.
TE Cole Kmet (CHI vs. DET)
Kmet continues to raise his ceiling on an almost weekly basis as he finds the end zone at a high rate. He has scored between 15-27 fantasy points in four of his last seven games. He is being highly targeted in this offense and is the main weapon in the red zone right now. HE gets a great divisional matchup against a Lions' team that is currently allowing the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Tight end is always a tough position to predict, but Kmet has been putting up consistent numbers in recent weeks.
Unfavorable Matchups
WR Gabe Davis (BUF vs. NYJ) vs. Michael Carter II
Davis has been volatile all season and continues to be a major boom-or-bust player. This week he has a high percent chance of busting against a Jets secondary that is allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers this season. Davis had 2 catches for 32 yards in their meeting earlier this season and will be working with a new offensive coordinator this week. Carter has put up better fantasy numbers than Gardner on the other side and will be locked up with Davis. He is an outright bench candidate this week in what has become a nightmare matchup for any receiver in the league.
WR Cooper Kupp (LAR vs. SEA) vs. Devon Witherspoon
It would be easy to give Kupp a boost with Matthew Stafford expected back this week, but Seattle has been stingy against receivers over the past four games. They are allowing 120 yards combined to opposing receivers and just 4 touchdowns in that span. Witherspoon has been a standout in the slot and will see Kupp more than 50% of the time this week. He currently allows 0.22 fantasy points per coverage snap and is leading the way for this secondary. Beware of the Rams receivers this week in a tough matchup against a Seattle secondary playing very well right now.
WR Rashee Rice (KC vs. PHI) vs. Bradley Roby
Kansas City has not figured out their receiver group this season and it is a constant guessing game who will get the ball each week. Rice has put up solid numbers a few times but can be avoided in a tough matchup against Roby in the slot this week. Roby is currently holding slot receivers to 0.12 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 21% of the time. Travis Kelce continues to be the biggest target in this offense with the rest of the receivers being downgraded until they can find some consistency.
WR Davante Adams (LV vs. MIA) vs. Jalen Ramsey
The Raiders have been flying high with their interim coach and new starting quarterback. Adams has gotten back to seeing a high volume of targets and has been much happier. That could quickly come to an end against a Miami team that is getting healthy down the stretch. Ramsey has returned and looked good with an interception in his first game back. He will try to lock up Adams and keep his 0.12 fantasy points per coverage snap intact. Adams is too good to bench, but we can temper expectations this week in a tough matchup against Ramsey.
WR Zay Flowers (BAL vs. CIN) vs. D.J. Turner
Thursday night will be a prime matchup of divisional rivals fighting for the top spot. Flowers has been a breath of fresh air for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, but he is walking into a tough matchup this week. Turner is currently allowing 0.18 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 16% of the time. Odell Beckham Jr has also become a weapon in the red zone in recent weeks and this team will always be run first. Downgrade Flowers and the rest of the receiver group this week against Cincinnati.
WR Amari Cooper (CLE vs. PIT) vs. Joey Porter Jr.
Porter has been asked to take over the No. 1 corner duties for the Steelers, and it paid off against DeAndre Hopkins. The young corner held him to 1 catch for 17 yards on five coverage snaps. This week he will face Cooper without starting quarterback Deshaun Watson and the Browns are struggling to find a new game plan. Their overall numbers against receivers have not been great, but Cooper can be downgraded with Porter expected to be in coverage nearly 60% of the time.
TE Evan Engram (JAX vs. TEN)
Engram has had a safe floor the majority of the season with just two games below 9 fantasy points. He is coming off a rough game against the 49ers, where he had 4 catches for 12 yards, and is walking into another tough matchup against Tennessee. The Titans are allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends and have not allowed a single touchdown to the position. It is hard to replace a tight end at this point in the season, but you may want to consider doing that with Engram this week.
TE Cade Otton (TB vs. SF)
Otton is the other side of the coin of Engram above. He will face the 49ers defense that just held Engram to 4 catches for 12 yards and was just held to 2 catches for 10 yards against Tennessee himself. San Francisco has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends and a single touchdown to the position. The string of good games for Otton has ended, and that will continue with a tough matchup against the 49ers.