Reading the Defense, Week 1

Photo: USA Today Sports

Reading the Defense returns for another season of analyzing defensive personnel trends and anomalies that impact fantasy value. Light boxes, for instance, stabilized the playing time and therefore, the fantasy value of linebackers.

Throughout the second decade of this century, nickel and then dime sub-packages grew in usage across the league. In this third decade, more teams are defending the run with just six defenders, choosing to remain in nickel and rotate players less frequently in response to tempo offenses.

To be successful, a light box requires a player who can stack and shed blockers as well as drop into coverage with speed and agility. The Packers drafted Quay Walker in the first round of last year's draft to implement this strategy after years of leading the league in deployment of dime personnel with a single off-ball linebacker.

Trends to Watch in 2023

Sub-package stabilization has afforded fantasy gamers the deepest crop of linebackers to draft in years. Alex Anzalone finished 26th in fantasy points among linebackers in 2022. He's ranked 58th by Footballguys staff for 2023. His average draft position is 54th among off-ball linebackers. (This ADP is courtesy of The IDP Show and is pulled from several dozen best-ball drafts that began in January.)

Alex Anzalone just signed a three-year, $18.75 million contract extension with the Lions and will continue to wear the green dot as their defensive signal caller. The Lions drafted an off-ball linebacker, Jack Campbell in the first round of the 2023 draft to play alongside Anzalone, just like the Packers did last year.

Fantasy gamers must not become complacent with the implication that fifty-some linebackers will adequately fill fantasy line-ups in 2023. While the growth of dime personnel has subsided, five-man fronts are spreading. To stay on the field, an off-ball linebacker must not only hold off a sixth defensive back but also a fifth defensive lineman.

It was once a forgone conclusion that a base 3-4 defense would substitute its nose tackle with an extra defensive back for sub-packages. More recently, coordinators like Ejiro Evero of the Panthers are keeping a nose tackle on the field and subbing one of his inside linebackers to deploy "penny personnel."

The Green Dot

Footballguy Gary Davenport is tracking and reporting linebacker deployment for 2023. His coverage will denote the defensive signal caller as well as full-time deployment. The player responsible for relaying defensive play calls from the sideline via a communication device wears a green dot on his helmet. (The quarterback does the same on offense.)

An NFL defense very rarely fields a defense without a player wearing the green dot. Only one player can wear it on the field at a time. The player capable of relaying signals and getting his teammates set displays just one more ability that keeps him on the field. The green dot does not guarantee, however, that its wearer plays full-time.

Only seven NFL defenses regularly played without a full-time linebacker in 2022. Those teams either assigned the green dot to a safety or rotated signal callers.

Uncertainty as to which player would relay signals surrounded twenty NFL teams this summer. The number of surprises might itself be an anomaly in historical context. Another trend, declining preseason reps for starters, only increases the uncertainty for lack of playing time to observe.

Each of these teams underwent personnel changes among coaches and players; however, more than one defensive coordinator appears to have reassigned the green dot from the incumbent wearer. The relative inexperience of some newly ordained green-dot calls into question whether either the wearer or his running mate will play full-time in 2023.

Arizona Cardinals

What We Learned: Incumbent green dot Zaven Collins has switched positions from inside to outside linebacker. Unrestricted free agent Kyzir White came from Philadelphia to Arizona with the newly hired head coach and defensive coordinator. White is widely expected to consistently play full-time for the first time in his six-year career.

What to Watch: Josh Woods played full-time alongside White in very limited preseason action. His new head coach, Jonathan Gannon, contributed to the burgeoning trend of five-man fronts as the 2022 Eagles' defensive coordinator. Woods is a player worth monitoring, but his preseason role is likely a component of vanilla preseason defenses. He profiles as a player who might play 70 percent of his unit's snaps, losing time to penny and dime personnel.

#CardsCamp: Josh Woods turns in goal line INT...

...on same day #AZCardinals LB appears on #RedSeaReport. #Ding pic.twitter.com/8o7fpYuep1

— Paul Calvisi (@PaulCalvisi) August 1, 2023

Atlanta Falcons

What We Learned: The Falcons drafted Troy Andersen in the second round last year. The new defensive coordinator, Ryan Neilsen, brought Kaden Elliss with him from New Orleans as an unrestricted free agent. Both linebackers were once primarily pass-rushers in college and, therefore, need to develop in coverage to compete in the NFL.

With no prior indication from the team, we simply had to see which player would wear the green dot in the preseason. The answer is Elliss.

What to Watch: Andersen, then, is at risk of losing snaps to dime personnel in obvious passing situations. He profiles as a matchup-based starter playing 80- to 90-percent of Atlanta's defensive snaps.

Buffalo Bills

What We Learned: The Bills might break from its 2022 pattern as well as league norms by playing a single full-time linebacker while assigning the green dot to a rotation. Head coach Sean McDermott will assume responsibility for the defense following the departure of defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier. Incumbent weak-side linebacker Matt Milano will continue to play full-time, but a trio of accomplished safeties – Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde, and incoming unrestricted free agent Taylor Rapp – should strengthen the Bills' pass defense as part of a dime sub-package.

Such a personnel grouping was seen very little in the preseason. The defense's focus has been on evaluating the middle linebacker role.

Terrel Bernard earned the starting nod for Week 1 despite missing much of August with injuries. Perhaps Tyrel Dodson, who backed up defensive captain Tremaine Edmunds last year, simply couldn't earn the role.

What to Watch: Uncertainty is fully baked into Bernard's ADP of 69th among off-ball linebackers. If he plays full-time in the opener, he'll be a priority on the waiver wire in Week 2.

Terrel Bernard -- Starting MLB, Buffalo #Bills #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/I9taf92ouT

— Andy Young (@AndyYoungTV) September 6, 2023

Carolina Panthers

What We Learned: Veteran linebacker Shaq Thompson agreed to a contract restructuring this past spring. Coaches indicated shortly thereafter that Thompson would play full-time and relay signals for the defense in 2023.

Thompson told reporters in June that his running mate Frankie Luvu and defensive back Jeremy Chinn were players "you gotta have on the field" for their playmaking abilities. Preseason game reps have shown that the Panthers can't get them both on the field full-time.

What to Watch: Ejiro Evero has promised diverse roles for both players and would seem to need Luvu's pass-rush experience due to the Panthers' lack of depth at outside linebacker. This writer's beliefs about Luvu's fantasy outlook remain unchanged this summer.