Reading the Defense returns for another season of analyzing defensive personnel trends and anomalies that impact fantasy value. Light boxes, for instance, stabilized the playing time and therefore, the fantasy value of linebackers.
Throughout the second decade of this century, nickel and then dime sub-packages grew in usage across the league. In this third decade, more teams are defending the run with just six defenders, choosing to remain in nickel and rotate players less frequently in response to tempo offenses.
To be successful, a light box requires a player who can stack and shed blockers as well as drop into coverage with speed and agility. The Packers drafted Quay Walker in the first round of last year's draft to implement this strategy after years of leading the league in deployment of dime personnel with a single off-ball linebacker.
Trends to Watch in 2023
Sub-package stabilization has afforded fantasy gamers the deepest crop of linebackers to draft in years. Alex Anzalone finished 26th in fantasy points among linebackers in 2022. He's ranked 58th by Footballguys staff for 2023. His average draft position is 54th among off-ball linebackers. (This ADP is courtesy of The IDP Show and is pulled from several dozen best-ball drafts that began in January.)
Alex Anzalone just signed a three-year, $18.75 million contract extension with the Lions and will continue to wear the green dot as their defensive signal caller. The Lions drafted an off-ball linebacker, Jack Campbell in the first round of the 2023 draft to play alongside Anzalone, just like the Packers did last year.
Fantasy gamers must not become complacent with the implication that fifty-some linebackers will adequately fill fantasy line-ups in 2023. While the growth of dime personnel has subsided, five-man fronts are spreading. To stay on the field, an off-ball linebacker must not only hold off a sixth defensive back but also a fifth defensive lineman.
It was once a forgone conclusion that a base 3-4 defense would substitute its nose tackle with an extra defensive back for sub-packages. More recently, coordinators like Ejiro Evero of the Panthers are keeping a nose tackle on the field and subbing one of his inside linebackers to deploy "penny personnel."
The Green Dot
Footballguy Gary Davenport is tracking and reporting linebacker deployment for 2023. His coverage will denote the defensive signal caller as well as full-time deployment. The player responsible for relaying defensive play calls from the sideline via a communication device wears a green dot on his helmet. (The quarterback does the same on offense.)
An NFL defense very rarely fields a defense without a player wearing the green dot. Only one player can wear it on the field at a time. The player capable of relaying signals and getting his teammates set displays just one more ability that keeps him on the field. The green dot does not guarantee, however, that its wearer plays full-time.
Only seven NFL defenses regularly played without a full-time linebacker in 2022. Those teams either assigned the green dot to a safety or rotated signal callers.
Uncertainty as to which player would relay signals surrounded twenty NFL teams this summer. The number of surprises might itself be an anomaly in historical context. Another trend, declining preseason reps for starters, only increases the uncertainty for lack of playing time to observe.
Each of these teams underwent personnel changes among coaches and players; however, more than one defensive coordinator appears to have reassigned the green dot from the incumbent wearer. The relative inexperience of some newly ordained green-dot calls into question whether either the wearer or his running mate will play full-time in 2023.
Arizona Cardinals
What We Learned: Incumbent green dot Zaven Collins has switched positions from inside to outside linebacker. Unrestricted free agent Kyzir White came from Philadelphia to Arizona with the newly hired head coach and defensive coordinator. White is widely expected to consistently play full-time for the first time in his six-year career.
What to Watch: Josh Woods played full-time alongside White in very limited preseason action. His new head coach, Jonathan Gannon, contributed to the burgeoning trend of five-man fronts as the 2022 Eagles' defensive coordinator. Woods is a player worth monitoring, but his preseason role is likely a component of vanilla preseason defenses. He profiles as a player who might play 70 percent of his unit's snaps, losing time to penny and dime personnel.
#CardsCamp: Josh Woods turns in goal line INT...
— Paul Calvisi (@PaulCalvisi) August 1, 2023
...on same day #AZCardinals LB appears on #RedSeaReport. #Ding pic.twitter.com/8o7fpYuep1
Atlanta Falcons
What We Learned: The Falcons drafted Troy Andersen in the second round last year. The new defensive coordinator, Ryan Neilsen, brought Kaden Elliss with him from New Orleans as an unrestricted free agent. Both linebackers were once primarily pass-rushers in college and, therefore, need to develop in coverage to compete in the NFL.
With no prior indication from the team, we simply had to see which player would wear the green dot in the preseason. The answer is Elliss.
What to Watch: Andersen, then, is at risk of losing snaps to dime personnel in obvious passing situations. He profiles as a matchup-based starter playing 80- to 90-percent of Atlanta's defensive snaps.
Buffalo Bills
What We Learned: The Bills might break from its 2022 pattern as well as league norms by playing a single full-time linebacker while assigning the green dot to a rotation. Head coach Sean McDermott will assume responsibility for the defense following the departure of defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier. Incumbent weak-side linebacker Matt Milano will continue to play full-time, but a trio of accomplished safeties – Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde, and incoming unrestricted free agent Taylor Rapp – should strengthen the Bills' pass defense as part of a dime sub-package.
Such a personnel grouping was seen very little in the preseason. The defense's focus has been on evaluating the middle linebacker role.
Terrel Bernard earned the starting nod for Week 1 despite missing much of August with injuries. Perhaps Tyrel Dodson, who backed up defensive captain Tremaine Edmunds last year, simply couldn't earn the role.
What to Watch: Uncertainty is fully baked into Bernard's ADP of 69th among off-ball linebackers. If he plays full-time in the opener, he'll be a priority on the waiver wire in Week 2.
Terrel Bernard -- Starting MLB, Buffalo #Bills #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/I9taf92ouT
— Andy Young (@AndyYoungTV) September 6, 2023
Carolina Panthers
What We Learned: Veteran linebacker Shaq Thompson agreed to a contract restructuring this past spring. Coaches indicated shortly thereafter that Thompson would play full-time and relay signals for the defense in 2023.
Thompson told reporters in June that his running mate Frankie Luvu and defensive back Jeremy Chinn were players "you gotta have on the field" for their playmaking abilities. Preseason game reps have shown that the Panthers can't get them both on the field full-time.
What to Watch: Ejiro Evero has promised diverse roles for both players and would seem to need Luvu's pass-rush experience due to the Panthers' lack of depth at outside linebacker. This writer's beliefs about Luvu's fantasy outlook remain unchanged this summer.
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Chicago Bears
The Bears signed two unrestricted free agents who each relayed defensive signals for their respective teams in 2022. While T.J. Edwards will wear the dot for the Bears, the more highly-paid Tremaine Edmunds will join him as a full-time linebacker.
Cleveland Browns
What We Learned: General Manager Andrew Berry described Anthony Walker as the "nerve center" of the Browns' defense in an interview with SiriusXM NFL radio. Although Walker didn't play in the preseason, the Browns showed enough on the field for us to interpret their plans at linebacker for 2023.
Walker's back-up, Jordan Kunaszyk, played full-time in Preseason Week 3 before suffering a serious injury. Kunaszyk was flanked by Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and Sione Takitaki in August practices. Koramoah rotated situationally in preseason games, as did Matthew Adams, Takitaki's presumed backup.
What to Watch: Walker and Takitaki are still working to return to playing speed after succumbing to season-ending injuries in 2022, so Week 1's deployment could reflect them building up to their roles. Fantasy gamers shouldn't give up on Walker if he's not full-time right away.
Green Bay Packers
What We Learned: The Packers surprised observers by equipping Quay Walker with the communication device and the accompanying green dot in Preseason Week 2. It's an indication he's ready to play full-time alongside 2021 All-Pro De'Vondre Campbell.
What to Watch: The Packers possess arguably the weakest group of safeties in the NFL. Replacing a linebacker to show dime personnel would not seem to present any advantage for the defense. Both starting linebackers should play full-time.
Houston Texans
What We Learned: Second-year linebacker Christian Harris emerged this summer as the team's LB1 and played full-time with the first unit in preseason games. Newly signed free agent Denzel Perryman wore the green dot for new head coach DeMeco Ryans. Long a stout run defender but a liability in coverage, Perryman lost reps to sub-package personnel in preseason action.
What to Watch: Perryman has never been a regular full-time player in his eight-year career. Assuming that doesn't change in Year 9, the Texans will rotate defensive communicator responsibilities in-game.
Perryman is nevertheless a value at an ADP of 46 among off-ball linebackers. He's long been efficient, even prolific in run defense. Runners in the third level of Houston won't be as commonplace in 2023.
pic.twitter.com/XnB4PSBVw2
— NFL Rumors (@nflrums) August 19, 2023
Miami Dolphins Tua Tagovailoa first play was an interception by Texans LB Denzel Perryman.
Las Vegas Raiders
What We Learned: Robert Spillane told reporters he signed with the Raiders as an unrestricted free agent in part because he sought an opportunity to start at middle linebacker and relay signals. We saw in Preseason Week 2 that he appears to have won that role. Weakside linebacker Divine Deablo wore the dot when healthy in 2022 and had been widely expected by observers to reprise that role.
What to Watch: Raiders defensive coordinator Patrick Graham rose through the coaching ranks in New England and Miami, where linebackers often made way for a variety of players and personnel groupings. Deablo, therefore, looks like a draft risk with an ADP of 34 among off-ball linebackers. Spillane, meanwhile, is positioned to be the top IDP waiver wire add of the early season if he plays full-time in Week 1.
New FSM Preview: 2023 Las Vegas Raiders Position: Linebackers by @ZTrezevant. #RaiderNation, Robert Spillane leads a retooled trio of #Raiders linebackers ready to make a jump and create havoc. We take a look!
— FranchiseSportsMedia (@TheFranchiseLV) August 22, 2023
📸: @TQtheTrojanhttps://t.co/C3w3dTrnUI pic.twitter.com/Mc3kwAUtRx
Miami Dolphins
What We Learned: As in Arizona and Atlanta, the Dolphins' camp battle to wear the green dot featured an incumbent versus a notable free-agent signing. David Long, however, had no experience with new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. Preseason action revealed that Jerome Baker has retained his role for 2023.
What to Watch: Fangio's predilection for light boxes will keep both linebackers on the field frequently enough to support the fantasy value of each.
Minnesota Vikings
Uncertainty surrounding the linebackers is greater in Minnesota than anywhere in the league. Many observers expect veteran Jordan Hicks, who didn't play a snap in the preseason, to don the green dot and perhaps even play full-time.
What We Learned: Undrafted free agent Ivan Pace Jr Jr. practiced extensively with the green dot in August and wore it with the second unit in early preseason games. He reportedly occupied a full-time role while Hicks and Brian Asamoah rotated in one practice afterward. Pace then sat out Preseason Week 3 with other starters, as did Hicks and Asamoah. Despite this, Pace appears on the Vikings' Week 1 depth chart behind Hicks.
What to Watch: This writer continues to expect Hicks to play part-time. The new defensive coordinator has experienced nothing but rotations of linebackers in his last three coaching gigs in Pittsburgh, Miami, and New England. Penny personnel contributed to the linebackers' loss of snaps in Miami. Asamoah, meanwhile, spent much of August banged up and doesn't appear ready for a full-time role per Brian Flores.
New York Giants
Blake Martinez was stunningly cut last August, leaving the Giants without a full-time linebacker for the 2022 season. Safeties relayed signals from first-year defensive coordinator Don "Wink" Martindale.
What We Learned: The team sought out that full-time linebacker for 2023, making Bobby Okereke the top-paid off-ball linebacker in this class of free agents. He'll wear the dot in New York.
What to Watch: The second linebacker, Micah McFadden, will play a proverbial two-down role. Martindale's long career features an attacking style with defensive backs flowing downhill to supplement run defense. New arrival Isaiah Simmons should cut into McFadden's workload as well in a cameo role that could grow as the season progresses.
Philadelphia Eagles
What We Learned: The reigning NFC champs will turn the keys to their defense over to sophomore Nakobe Dean after losing T.J. Edwards in free agency. Signed last month, Zach Cunningham appears to have won the starting role alongside Dean. The former Titan played two-thirds to three-quarters of defensive snaps in Nashville, a workload that would seem appropriate for him in Philly.
What to Watch: Cunningham's re-emergence has flown under most IDP gamers' radar. He should be a viable fourth linebacker on fantasy rosters if he confirms this playing-time prediction in Week 1 of the NFL schedule, thanks largely to his tackle efficiency. The Eagles are likely to continue use of five-man fronts under new defensive coordinator Sean Desai.
“One of the reasons why he was in there Thursday night because he’s played really well. Really excited about where he is.”
— Word On The Birds (@WordOnTheBirds) August 19, 2023
- Nick Sirianni on Zach Cunningham
pic.twitter.com/9EXIjp2zRN
Pittsburgh Steelers
What We Learned: The Steelers cleaned out their linebacker room this past offseason. Cole Holcomb arrives from Washington to wear the green dot. Elandon Roberts, a career two-down banger, joined him. The team made journeyman Kwon Alexander their third linebacker with an August signing.
What to Watch: The Steeler's Week 1 depth chart read "-or- Kwon Alexander" next to the names of the two starters, Holcomb and Roberts. Three linebackers played roughly 600 snaps in Pittsburgh last year. Anything less than 1,000 (59 per game) for Holcomb would be a serious disappointment.
Seattle Seahawks
What We Learned: After a one-year sabbatical to Los Angeles, Bobby Wagner returns to Seattle to lead the Seahawks' defense.
What to Watch: The role of the second linebacker depends more upon player health than scheme or talent. Thumping defensive back Jamal Adams has already been ruled out of Week 1, but linebacker Jordyn Brooks is expected to play just eight months after ACL reconstruction.
Tennessee Titans
What We Learned: New Tennessee general manager Ran Carthon brought linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair with him from San Francisco as an unrestricted free agent. The former 49er will wear the dot and play full-time.
What to Watch: Former undrafted free agent Jack Gibbens appears to have won the starting spot alongside Al-Shaair. The Titans are likely to liberally deploy dime personnel in 2023 as they did in 2022. Gibbens is a lackluster deep-league option.
#Titans linebacker Jack Gibbens @johngibbens18 after Thursday’s practice. pic.twitter.com/OGy1abJBqR
— Jim Wyatt (@jwyattsports) August 3, 2023
Washington Commanders
What We Learned: Former Seahawk Cody Barton told SiriusXM Radio's NFL Training Camp Tour that he sought out and secured a MIKE linebacker job with play-calling responsibilities in free agency. He'll play alongside 2021 first-round pick Jamin Davis in Washington.
Davis finally emerged as a steady force playing full-time down the stretch in 2022. The entire defense seemed to find its stride with liberal use of three-safety sets.
What to Watch: Barton failed in a full-time role in Seattle last year. He was Pro Football Focus's lowest-graded linebacker league-wide in August. Even if he plays full-time versus the sad-sack Cardinals in Week 1, he'll need to show more in coverage than he did in 2022 to hold the role throughout 2023. Defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio rotated the communication device in 2020 due to a lack of talent in the second level of Washington's defense.
On the other hand, the depth chart is missing a reliable cover corner for situational slot play for 2023, just as it did last season. Frequent 4-2-5 big nickel sub-packages should again be expected. The Commanders furthermore showed more two-high coverages in 2022 than in recent years, helping push the league-wide trend. With both safeties back, the linebackers eat.
At an average draft position of 48th among off-ball linebackers, the risk is built into Cody Barton's price. He's likely on the waiver wire in shallower leagues and offers upside in tackle-heavy leagues.
Here's another play from Ravens/Commanders joint practice.
— Mason Kinnahan (@Mason_Kinnahan) August 16, 2023
Just look at the speed from Cody Barton (57) he was flying #HTTC #RavensFlock pic.twitter.com/CHYFVjWCj3
Forecasting the Reads for 2023
Footballguys brings the reader abundant resources to pick players off the waiver and for line-ups each week. This column helps the reader better understand the reasoning behind these moves. Reading the Defense will track trends and assess anomalies each Friday. Future editions will tackle the impacts of press coverage, two-high-safety sets, and other evolutions of the game on defenders' fantasy values. Readers and subscribers are welcome to follow along and engage this writer in conversation on the Footballguys' IDP Forum or writer @DynastyTripp on the website formerly known as Twitter.