Reading the Defense, Week 5

Tripp Brebner III's Reading the Defense, Week 5 Tripp Brebner III Published 10/06/2023

In 2013, Footballguy Adam Harstad wondered how many weeks into the season would pass before to-date scoring became more predictive of year-end finish than preseason ADP. His analysis of the 2012 season and several subsequent seasons concluded that the answer is roughly four games.

Harstad conducted his analysis only for skill-position players. Average draft position for individual defensive players is far less similar from source to source than that for offensive players, so parallel analysis is futile.

On the precipice of the 2023 season's bye weeks, Week 5 is nevertheless the right time to reflect on surprising producers on defense. This week's focus is a rest-of-season outlook to inform roster management, including trading decisions.

Defensive Line

Footballguy Aaron Rudnicki's preseason tiers of defensive linemen reflected consensus in analysts' ranks and drafts. Eighty percent of the top tier - Maxx Crosby, Myles Garrett, Micah Parsons, and T.J. Watt - resides among the first twelve scorers at the position through four weeks.

Nick Bosa, San Francisco 49ers

The fifth member of the top tier has just one sack through four weeks. At this point last season, Bosa was fueling his candidacy for Defensive Player of the Year with seven. Only nine have been recorded by his team, near the bottom of the league. So, what's wrong with them?

Teams are game-planning scared and getting routed anyway. The 49ers' starters are losing reps to double-digit leads en route to a 4-0 record. Bosa has led the team in quarterback pressures for three straight weeks. Production will surely ensue.

Jonathon Cooper and Nik Bonitto, Denver Broncos

The Broncos' starting edge rushers vaulted into the top-25 scoring edge rushers at the expense of Justin Fields and the Bears. Bonitto recorded 2.5 sacks in his first career start, while Cooper returned a fumble for a touchdown.

Both youngsters have some upside, but Cooper is a former undrafted free agent who made the team as a situational edge-setter, and Bonitto just overtook Randy Gregory on the depth chart. Denver will incur $24.3 million in dead cap to show Gregory the door.

Andrew Van Ginkel, Miami Dolphins

Andrew Van Ginkel is like a utility infielder. He produces in spots and could tease fans into wondering how he would perform as a starter. In Week 1, he played off the ball in nickel sub-packages. After rising star Jaelan Phillips got hurt, he started on the edge.

Phillips and Bradley Chubb, the regular starters, have just 1.5 sacks between them. While Phillips was productive in his one full game, he and Chubb are suffering the same leaky secondary that limited them in Miami last year. The franchise's big investments in cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey (trade) and Cam Smith (second-round pick) have yielded no starts. Justin Bethel, a 33-year-old career special teamer, is operating at nickelback while Ramsey recovers from a preseason injury.

Chubb is 11th among NFL edge defenders in pass-rush win rate but should only be considered by fantasy gamers for soft match-ups. If Phillips is healthy enough to play in Week 5, the Giants' Daniel Jones should prove a short-term remedy to the Dolphins' woes. The third edition of this column offered guidance for situational fantasy starters.

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Kwity Paye and Samson Ebukam, Indianapolis Colts

The 2-2 Colts constitute one of the young season's more pleasant surprises. Starting defensive ends Kwity Paye and Samson Ebukam have been key contributors. Ebukam, widely undrafted in fantasy leagues, ranks 8th with a studly 26% pass-rush win rate in 68 opportunities. He presents IDP gamers a cheap option versus Ryan Tannehill and the Titans in Week 5. Paye presented concussion symptoms after the Colts' loss to the Rams, which might help explain his absence from the box score last Sunday.

Paye and Ebukam, like Phillips and Chubb, fit fantasy rosters best as rotational pieces. The Colts no-name secondary just lost a starter to a torn Achilles. Like Miami, Indianapolis should struggle to provide its pass rushers time to reach opposing quarterbacks.

Defensive Tackles Briefly

Four defensive tackles reside among Footballguys' top 25 fantasy linemen. Three surprises follow perennial Pro-Bowler DeForest Buckner. Carolina's Derrick Brown and Minnesota's Harrison Phillips are piling up tackles in heavy workloads versus running games milking clock.

Vita Vea is already more than halfway to his career high in quarterback sacks. His pass-rush win rate is solid, but he is often double-teamed as a nose tackle. He needs more pressure from his teammates to continue his unlikely pace.

Linebackers

Like his tiers for linemen, three of Rudnicki's four elite LB1s are top producers at their position. The fourth, Nick Bolton, has lost time to injury.

As IDP gamers' most consistent producers, Footballguys' top 25 linebackers include just a single one-week wonder. 28-year-old journeyman Nicholas Morrow increased his career sack total from 4.0 to 7.0 last Sunday at Sam Howell's expense. Philadelphia's starting inside linebacker, Nakobe Dean, will resume his role once he returns from the Reserve/Injured list.

Most players who might be described as surprises can be tied back to preseason evidence, considered in this column's first edition of the season. Kenneth Murray's appearance relates to Eric Kendrick's two-game absence. Jordyn Brooks might be the biggest surprise since he underwent ACL reconstruction surgery nine months ago but started in Week 1.

Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano, Buffalo Bills

Matt Milano has reprised his role as a playmaker who collects relatively few tackles. IDP gamers' usage of Milano in their line-ups should continue to reflect their leagues' scoring systems.

Milano's new running mate, Terrel Bernard, replaced Tremaine Edmunds at middle linebacker and picked up where the unrestricted free agent left off. Bernard backed up Milano last year and played sparingly. He missed the preseason with an injury. Many observers were surprised that head coach Sean McDermott named him the starter.

Bernard and Milano rank among league leaders in passer rating allowed. Perversely, their success lowers their value in most IDP leagues. By preventing completions, the linebackers forego opportunities to make tackles. Each remains a quality option in big-play formats.

Shaquille Leonard, Indianapolis Colts

Five former number-one overall fantasy linebackers reside outside the top 25 at the position. Shaquille Leonard is one of three that fantasy gamers drafted highly, hoping for rebound performances. Leonard's share of the Colts' defensive snaps has declined each week this season. Zaire Franklin, meanwhile, sits atop the Footballguys' leaderboard.

No defense has played more snaps through four weeks than Indianapolis's. In contrast, Buffalo's has played the fewest. The workload has helped fuel Frankin's production. Leonard's declining share of it exposes him as a cut candidate outside of deep fantasy leagues, justifying four linebackers in Sunday line-ups.

Devin White and Lavonte David, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The 3-1 Buccaneers feature two linebackers who have finished a season as the top overall fantasy linebacker. Devin White and Lavonte David have each posted an inexplicable two-tackle dud in four outings. Neither player has Zaire Franklin's ceiling for tackle collection. Instead, both Buccaneers have been playmakers.

The surprisingly competitive Buccaneers are blitzing at the fourth-highest rate in the league. Given how little their pass rushers are producing, the blitzing might need to increase to pressure opposing quarterbacks. David and especially White are set up for better weeks ahead.

Thanks for Reading!

Reading the Defense will track trends and analyze anomalies each Friday. Next week's edition will cover the increasingly complex positions of the defensive backfield. Analysis at Footballguys aims to equip fantasy gamers with the confidence to acquire players for their rosters and deploy them on Sundays. Readers are welcome to contact and follow this writer @DynastyTripp on the website formerly known as Twitter.

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