Five years ago, fantasy football platforms designated defensive players' positions based on the architecture of the schemes in which they played. An NFL defense was known as a "3-4 defense" or a "4-3 defense." For many years, the number of teams playing a 3-4 defense was roughly equal to that playing a 4-3.
The 4-3 defense largely defined IDP fantasy football for decades. Defensive ends like Michael Strahan and Julius Peppers led the position and anchored IDP rosters. Fantasy gamers were thrilled to draft Warren Sapp in leagues requiring defensive tackles.
Pass rushers featured in 3-4 defenses, like Clay Matthews, were often afterthoughts in fantasy football. Designated as linebackers, their utility to IDP gamers was minimal. As a result, IDP rosters were typically populated by defensive linemen from fewer than 20 NFL teams. The scarcity of options sent gamers scrambling for options after draft mistakes or injuries inseason.
2023 IDP Draft Strategy
Footballguy Gary Davenport explained fantasy football's transition to "true-position" designations in May. Several fantasy football platforms have dramatically increased the number of players available for 'DE' or 'DL' slots in fantasy line-ups. These platforms either adopted true-position designations or made pass rushers eligible for both lineman and linebacker slots.
Davenport explained how to address defensive line in his piece on draft strategy with input from Footballguy John Norton. The duo acknowledges a choice between spending draft capital on two stars and building out rosters with newly available depth. True-position designations make viable options for one or more pass rushers from nearly every NFL team.
In-Season Management
Davenport noted a top tier of 18 to 20 players from which fantasy drafters might have chosen over the summer. For every gamer that missed out on top options, another selected early-season duds like Haason Reddick and Cameron Heyward.
A successful fantasy gamer transitions from drafter to manager in September. The odds that an undrafted pass rusher emerges as a reliable option early in the season are low. A linebacker or safety is much easier to find on the waiver wire.
The key to success week after week includes successful navigation of match-ups. A fantasy gamer with adequate depth but no returning All-Pro can sustain Pro-Bowl-caliber production by correctly rotating his defensive ends through his weekly line-up.
Eight quarterbacks have already taken eight or more sacks through two weeks. Certainly, the high number is partially a product of small sample size; however, this pace of four sacks allowed per game puts each on pace for 68 sacks in 17 games. No quarterback took more than 55 sacks in 2022.
Ten teams are allowing sacks on more than 10 percent of their drop-backs. While Chicago once again leads the league at a consistent 13 percent year after year, no other team exceeded 10 percent in 2022.
Eleven quarterbacks are holding the ball for more than 2.5 seconds per drop-back. While several of these players create with their feet, they also increase the likelihood of sacks taken with extended pocket times.
Several teams' offensive lines are doing their quarterbacks few favors. Nine are allowing pressure more than half the time. In other words, nine teams have pass-block win rates below 50 percent.
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Quarterback Targets
IDP fantasy gamers should target the following quarterbacks when choosing a pass rusher for a line-up on Sunday morning. Each shows a relatively high likelihood of allowing sacks that fuel IDP scoring.
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
The Bears' third-year signal-caller is throwing more often this year.
- Sacks allowed: 10
- Sack rate: 13.16%
- Pocket time: 2.8 seconds
- Pass-block win rate: 61%
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
The rookie will take time to develop and eat the ball playing from behind frequently.
- Sacks allowed: 11
- Sack rate: 10.78%
- Pocket time: 2.3 seconds
- Pass-block win rate: 54%
â¤ï¸CJ Stroud deserves to be loved and protected.
— Will Kunkel (@WillKunkelFOX) September 20, 2023
Through 2 games:
11 Sacks
19 QB Hits
vs Ravens:
5 Sacks
10 QB Hits
vs Colts:
6 Sacks
9 QB Hits
💔CJ Stroud is projected to be the most sacked quarterback in NFL history.
👇ðŸ¼ðŸ‘‡ðŸ¼ðŸ‘‡ðŸ¼ pic.twitter.com/NCI42aml7y
Sam Howell, Washington Commanders
Howell seemed to take a step forward in his third career start, but his penchant to hold the ball and take off attracts pass rushers.
- Sacks allowed: 10
- Sack rate: 12.50%
- Pocket time: 2.6 seconds
- Pass-block win rate: 65%
Zach Wilson
Another unsuccessful third-year passer, Wilson has the added pressure of playing behind the league's worst line in terms of pass-block win rate. Wilson led the league in yards lost to sacks as a rookie.
- Sacks allowed: 5
- Sack rate: 10.91%
- Pocket time: 2.7 seconds
- Pass-block win rate: 33%
Daniel Jones, New York Giants
Only in Year 5, Jones is already 15th among active players in sacks taken.
- Sacks allowed: 10 (through Week 2)
- Sack rate: 12.99%
- Pocket time: 2.4 seconds
- Pass-block win rate: 57%
Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
Despite playing in just 5 more games than Daniel Jones, Watson has been sacked 42 more times. Many of those sacks came when he was playing well three to four years ago.
- Sacks allowed: 9
- Sack rate: 11.54%
- Pocket time: 2.5 seconds
- Pass-block win rate: 71%
Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos
With Aaron Rodgers on the shelf, Wilson is the active leader in sacks allowed for his career. He took as many as Fields last year (55).
- Sacks allowed: 9
- Sack rate: 12.00%
- Pocket time: 2.7 seconds
- Pass-block win rate: 67%
No one knows offensive line play like @BaldyNFL.
— DNVR Broncos (@DNVR_Broncos) September 20, 2023
He says Denver's oline HAS to be better.
"The offensive line has been disappointing. Russell Wilson has been hit 18 times and sacked nine in 75 pass attempts... That's the most any quarterback has been hit." pic.twitter.com/rtLJ4dhfc7
Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans
The 35-year-old led the league in sacks allowed in 2013.
- Sacks allowed: 8
- Sack rate: 12.12%
- Pocket time: 2.6 seconds
- Pass-block win rate: 57%
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Burrow's offensive line is getting him killed. An unsustainably low volume of deep passing is keeping his sack totals low for now. He took 41 sacks (6th most) last year and is a target as long as he's banged up.
- Sacks allowed: 3
- Sack rate: 3.95%
- Pocket time: 2.1 seconds
- Pass-block win rate: 39%
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Hurts took 38 sacks last year during a season in which he and his offense looked great. The 2023 version is much less impressive without its offensive coordinator. The Eagles' powerful running game has kept their number of pass plays low, a pace they probably can't sustain.
- Sacks allowed: 7
- Sack rate: 11.11%
- Pocket time: 2.6 seconds
- Pass-block win rate: 65%
Reading the Weekly Content
Footballguys brings the reader abundant resources to pick players off waivers and for line-ups each week. Kyle Bellefeuil covers prospective additions at each level of the defense, while Joseph Haggan focuses on defensive linemen (including pass-rushing outside linebackers). This column helps the reader better understand the reasoning behind these moves.
Reading the Defense will track trends and analyze anomalies each Friday. Future editions will tackle the impacts of press coverage and two-high-safety sets and of other evolutions of the game on defenders' fantasy values. Readers and subscribers are welcome to follow along and engage this writer in conversation on the Footballguys' IDP Forum or writer @DynastyTripp on the website formerly known as Twitter.