A player's fantasy football production can differ significantly from year to year based on a variety of factors. One of the key places to understand is when their production will be influenced by highly variable and uncorrelated stats. In many cases, players may perform better on the field but have worse fantasy production because they regress in these high-variance areas. Likewise, players may perform worse in the following season but have better fantasy production because they progressed in a positive direction in these high-variance stats. Understanding these forces will identify undervalued and overvalued players.
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When setting expectations, consider the following four quarterbacks candidates due for a bounceback in 2023.
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert had the third most attempts into the end zone in 2022 (44) and managed only 16 touchdowns. On average, 38% of the passing attempts into the end zone were converted for touchdowns, so Herbert's 36% is slightly below the average. This is notable considering Herbert's preferred end zone option, Keenan Allen, was targeted 8 times in only 10 games. Allen and Mike Williams missed a combined 11 games in 2022, and Herbert should benefit from the addition of Quentin Johnston. Herbert led the league in passing dropbacks but only had 1 touchdown longer than 40 yards. Overall, Herbert was expected for 33 passing touchdowns but only threw for 25, making him a good candidate to rebound in 2023. Additionally, Herbert barely ran last year, ranking 17th in red zone rushes (7), and failed to score a touchdown. This is down from 23 (2021) and 20 (2020) in his first two seasons. Herbert had little touchdown luck, and his running was basically shut down. He still finished as QB11 in 2022. Herbert has a lot of ways to rebound, including a new offensive coordinator, a healthy receiving corps, positive touchdown regression, and a return of his running game in 2023.
Mac Jones, New England Patriots
No player in the league got a bigger upgrade in situation than Mac Jones this offseason, with the team hiring Bill O'Brien to replace Matt Patricia as play caller. Just that fact alone should cause Jones to regress in a positive direction. In 2022, Jones had only 17 throws into the end zone and threw only 6 touchdowns on those throws. In terms of end zone throws, Jones ranked ahead of only Daniel Jones, Kyler Murray, and Andy Dalton among quarterbacks with 400 dropbacks. Additionally, the team threw it only 42.7% of the time in the red zone, which ranked 26th in the league. This is a big year for the trajectory of Jones's career, and he should benefit from the new offensive coaching staff.
Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos
Russell Wilson's fantasy production was among the worst of his career in 2022. Overall, he finished as QB16 in season-long points, but he ranked 19th in per-game scoring among quarterbacks with at least two starts. While there was much discourse around Wilson's play, the biggest factor in his fantasy scoring decline was his drop in touchdown production. In his Seattle career, Wilson threw a touchdown on 6.2% of his attempts. In 2022, Wilson's touchdown rate plunged to only 3.3%. This was almost entirely the performance in the red zone. In 2022, Wilson's red zone touchdown rate cratered to 15.6%, almost half his 30.5% rate during his time in Seattle. This stayed true inside the 10-yard line, where Wilson scored on 21.7% of his attempts, well below his 41.1% rate in Seattle. Denver hired Sean Payton as their head coach, and if Payton brings competence to the Denver red zone offense, Wilson should rebound.
Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers
Kenny Pickett is entering year two of his career, which is typically a season quarterbacks take a jump in production. His production jump should be aided by positive regression. Pickett had 25 end zone attempts and four touchdowns (16%), well below the league-average touchdown rate of 38% on end zone throws. Pickett was also the lowest touchdown maker on balls thrown into the end zone for any quarterback with over 400 dropbacks. The team added Allen Robinson and drafted tight end Darnell Washington to go along with a quality cast of supporting players in Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Pat Freiermuth, and Najee Harris.