4 QBs Who Could Improve in 2023

Photo: USA Today Sports

A player's fantasy football production can differ significantly from year to year based on a variety of factors. One of the key places to understand is when their production will be influenced by highly variable and uncorrelated stats. In many cases, players may perform better on the field but have worse fantasy production because they regress in these high-variance areas. Likewise, players may perform worse in the following season but have better fantasy production because they progressed in a positive direction in these high-variance stats. Understanding these forces will identify undervalued and overvalued players.

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When setting expectations, consider the following four quarterbacks candidates due for a bounceback in 2023.

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert had the third most attempts into the end zone in 2022 (44) and managed only 16 touchdowns. On average, 38% of the passing attempts into the end zone were converted for touchdowns, so Herbert's 36% is slightly below the average. This is notable considering Herbert's preferred end zone option, Keenan Allen, was targeted 8 times in only 10 games. Allen and Mike Williams missed a combined 11 games in 2022, and Herbert should benefit from the addition of Quentin Johnston. Herbert led the league in passing dropbacks but only had 1 touchdown longer than 40 yards. Overall, Herbert was expected for 33 passing touchdowns but only threw for 25, making him a good candidate to rebound in 2023. Additionally, Herbert barely ran last year, ranking 17th in red zone rushes (7), and failed to score a touchdown. This is down from 23 (2021) and 20 (2020) in his first two seasons. Herbert had little touchdown luck, and his running was basically shut down. He still finished as QB11 in 2022. Herbert has a lot of ways to rebound, including a new offensive coordinator, a healthy receiving corps, positive touchdown regression, and a return of his running game in 2023.

Mac Jones, New England Patriots

No player in the league got a bigger upgrade in situation than Mac Jones this offseason, with the team hiring Bill O'Brien to replace Matt Patricia as play caller. Just that fact alone should cause Jones to regress in a positive direction. In 2022, Jones had only 17 throws into the end zone and threw only 6 touchdowns on those throws. In terms of end zone throws, Jones ranked ahead of only Daniel Jones, Kyler Murray, and Andy Dalton among quarterbacks with 400 dropbacks. Additionally, the team threw it only 42.7% of the time in the red zone, which ranked 26th in the league. This is a big year for the trajectory of Jones's career, and he should benefit from the new offensive coaching staff.