A player's fantasy football production can differ significantly from year to year based on a variety of factors. One of the key places to understand is when their production will be influenced by highly variable and uncorrelated stats. In many cases, players may perform better on the field but have worse fantasy production because they regress in these high-variance areas. Likewise, players may perform worse in the following season but have better fantasy production because they progressed in a positive direction in these high-variance stats. Understanding these forces will identify undervalued and overvalued players.
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When setting expectations, consider the following three quarterbacks candidates due for regression in 2023.
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
Brock Purdy was an unlikely breakout player at the end of 2022. Purdy was selected as the final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft and was vaulted into a starting job after Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo suffered season-ending injuries. Purdy finished as QB6 in the final five weeks of the season, but there could be signs of a step backward in 2023. Some will say the final pick of the NFL Draft will naturally fall back to earth, but the causes for concern are more related to his touchdown luck. Purdy threw for touchdowns on 7.6% of his attempts in 2022, which led the league among quarterbacks with more than 100 passing attempts. In fact, his touchdown rate was nearly twice the 2022 league average of 4.1%. The offense has been very effective in prior years, but the touchdown rate ranked 17th (4.4%) and 13th (5.1%) in 2022 and 2021, respectively. Notably, the team ranked 4th in plays inside their opponent's 10-yard line (108) but threw it only 36.8% of the time, the 27th highest rate in the league. Purdy's touchdown production is inflated in unsustainable ways, and he will need a significant rise in volume to produce at a similar level in 2023. Purdy is recovering from an elbow injury and should start if he is healthy, but may take time to come along in 2023.
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
Tua Tagovailoa had multiple concussions in 2022 that overshadowed what was otherwise a very good season. While Tagovailoa's season was strong, his touchdown scoring may not be sustainable. On 400 attempts, Tagovailoa had eight touchdowns of 40 or more yards, meaning 2% of his attempts were 40-yard touchdowns, which led the league. The next closest quarterbacks were Joe Burrow (1.2%) and Josh Allen (1.1%). While Tagovailoa's aDOT of 10.1 was among the higher in the league, his aDOT suggests a 40-yard touchdown rate of about 1%. A reduction of this amount would be about one-third of a touchdown per game. Tua finished as QB15 in season-long points in 2022 in 13 games, including two games he was knocked out of with concussions. Tagovailoa may experience some regression in touchdowns, but he could make up for the production with more passing attempts if he can stay healthy in 2023.
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
The Detroit Lions started 1-6 in 2022, then won 8 of the final 10 games before narrowly missing the playoffs. In the final 10 weeks of the season, Goff lead the league in expected points added (EPA) with .290 expected points added per dropback, despite a completion percentage 1.5 percent under expectation. This was the best 10-game stretch of Goff's career. Since he was drafted in 2016, Goff has an EPA of 0.084, which ranks 29th of 80 qualifying quarterbacks during the span. Goff was more than three times higher to finish the season. There is a perception the Lions are heading in an upward trajectory, but be careful about elevating Goff based on the positive vibes around the team. Goff could be an above-average starter but do not expect him to be a top-10 option.