Identifying bounce-back or breakout players for the following season is a long-standing strategy to maximize roster value in the offseason. Here are my favorite bets for an uptick in 2024:
QUARTERBACKS
Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
Why: For as poor of a rookie season Bryce Young (and the Panthers) have had, this recommendation is an annual reminder that 1.01-drafted quarterbacks are one of the most durable dynasty assets and bets for a post-Year 1 rebound. The past 18 quarterbacks who have been drafted 1.01 have averaged QB24 in Year 1, and only three (Peyton Manning, Cam Newton, and Andrew Luck) have started their career with a top-12 season. Despite this lack of overt Year 1 success, 67% of the sample size has posted a top-6 finish in Year 2 or beyond. Plus, 17 of 18 (JaMarcus Russell the lone complete whiff) posted a top-20 season in Year 2 or beyond. In short, Young is essentially a lock to improve in the next 12-24 months in a strong, if not pronounced, fashion. Trevor Lawrence and Jared Goff are recent examples of 'the sky is falling' results in Year 1, which whiplashed to Year 2 success.
A few December dynasty trades (Superflex) of note for Young include:
- Young for Aaron Rodgers, 24 2nd
- Young, 2026 2nd for Rachaad White
- Young for David Montgomery
- Young, 2024 1st for Jonathan Taylor, Zack Moss, 2026 2nd
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Why: Burrow is sliding to the QB6-8 range in the dynasty market, cooled from his perch in the 2023 offseason thanks to a slow start to the season and a season-ending injury to bookend his year. While still on the early side of his career, Burrow is one of the few quarterbacks to have multiple seasons of at least a 2.00 ratio of big-time throws to turnover-worthy plays. This is a key marker for elite and durable quarterback profiles. Burrow hit in 2021 and 2022 and, even in a down 2023 season, posted 1.89. The NFL average this season is 1.19 as a threshold marker. The lone repeat qualifers in their career are:
A few December dynasty trades (Superflex) of note for Burrow include:
- Burrow, Garrett Wilson for Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk
- Burrow for Brock Purdy, Zay Flowers
- Burrow, Quentin Johnston for CeeDee Lamb
- Burrow for Jordan Love, 2024 1st
- Burrow for Trevor Lawrence
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RUNNING BACKS
Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans
Why: Derrick Henry will be 30 years old in the offseason and a free agent. Even without a clarified start to close the season, Tyjae Spears will be a hyped breakout player in the offseason for the Titans' starting job. Spears' RB30-35 market value is low considering the market reaction at the moment Henry is rumored (or actually) not returning to Tennessee in the offseason.
A few December dynasty trades of note for Spears include:
- Spears, 2024 3rd for Chuba Hubbard
- Spears for Gus Edwards
- Spears, Chase Brown, 2025 4th for Jerome Ford, Zack Moss
Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals
Why: Brown was already on this breakout outline before his Week 14 breakout performance with 105 total yards on 11 touches. Joe Mixon enters his final contract year in 2024 at 28 years old and the team can save more nearly $6 million by moving on from Mixon. At a minimum, Brown projects as one of the stronger injury-away RB2 roles in the NFL with his upside and the level of the Bengals offense. Brown's dynasty price point is already on the high side, considering Mixon could easily be retained by Cincinnati in the RB30-40 range, similar to Tyjae Spears, who has a clearer path to RB1 touches.
A few December dynasty trades (Superflex) of note for Brown include:
- Brown for 2024 3rd, 2025 3rd
- Brown, 2024 2nd for Jayden Reed
- Brown, 2024 1st for D'Andre Swift, Zack Moss
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