Identifying bounce-back or breakout players for the following season is a long-standing strategy to maximize roster value in the offseason. Here are my favorite bets for an uptick in 2024:
QUARTERBACKS
Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
Why: For as poor of a rookie season Bryce Young (and the Panthers) have had, this recommendation is an annual reminder that 1.01-drafted quarterbacks are one of the most durable dynasty assets and bets for a post-Year 1 rebound. The past 18 quarterbacks who have been drafted 1.01 have averaged QB24 in Year 1, and only three (Peyton Manning, Cam Newton, and Andrew Luck) have started their career with a top-12 season. Despite this lack of overt Year 1 success, 67% of the sample size has posted a top-6 finish in Year 2 or beyond. Plus, 17 of 18 (JaMarcus Russell the lone complete whiff) posted a top-20 season in Year 2 or beyond. In short, Young is essentially a lock to improve in the next 12-24 months in a strong, if not pronounced, fashion. Trevor Lawrence and Jared Goff are recent examples of 'the sky is falling' results in Year 1, which whiplashed to Year 2 success.
A few December dynasty trades (Superflex) of note for Young include:
- Young for Aaron Rodgers, 24 2nd
- Young, 2026 2nd for Rachaad White
- Young for David Montgomery
- Young, 2024 1st for Jonathan Taylor, Zack Moss, 2026 2nd
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Why: Burrow is sliding to the QB6-8 range in the dynasty market, cooled from his perch in the 2023 offseason thanks to a slow start to the season and a season-ending injury to bookend his year. While still on the early side of his career, Burrow is one of the few quarterbacks to have multiple seasons of at least a 2.00 ratio of big-time throws to turnover-worthy plays. This is a key marker for elite and durable quarterback profiles. Burrow hit in 2021 and 2022 and, even in a down 2023 season, posted 1.89. The NFL average this season is 1.19 as a threshold marker. The lone repeat qualifers in their career are:
A few December dynasty trades (Superflex) of note for Burrow include:
- Burrow, Garrett Wilson for Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk
- Burrow for Brock Purdy, Zay Flowers
- Burrow, Quentin Johnston for CeeDee Lamb
- Burrow for Jordan Love, 2024 1st
- Burrow for Trevor Lawrence
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