You are right there. The fantasy playoffs at upon us (at least for most leagues). Week 14 resulted in some significant fantasy football injuries. We discuss them in more depth below.
Key:
(Position) Player | Injury | My Projection for Return to Play
QB Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers | Finger Fracture | Likely Season Ending
Justin Herbert fractured his index finger on his throwing hand on Sunday and was unable to finish the game vs. the Denver Broncos.
Chargers’ HC Brandon Staley said Justin Herbert was diagnosed with a fractured right index finger.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 11, 2023
If you remember, Herbert fractured a finger in his non-throwing hand in Week 4, but this is a different situation. The injury to the throwing hand almost ensures that Herbert is going to miss time. The Chargers are slated to play Thursday night, and I don't think Herbert will be ready then. Depending on the severity of his fracture, Herbert could have surgery, which would end his season. Even without surgery, if you have to wonder if the Chargers will bring their franchise QB back. LA is not going to make the playoffs. Fantasy teams using Herbert as their starter should start making other plans.
Tuesday Update: Per Adam Schefter it is now official. Justin Herbert will have surgery on this finger and his season is over.
QB Jake Browning, Cincinnati Bengals | Thumb/Hand | Projecting Week 15 Return
Jake Browning exited Sunday's game with a thumb injury. Just went the Bengals' offense starting humming post-Joe Burrow injury the team appeared to sustain another injury to major position.
After the game it was revealed that Browning was merely dealing with "thumb cramps." This should not limit him moving forward. Expect him under center next week.
RB Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders | Knee Injury | Timeline TBD
Josh Jacobs exited in the 4th quarter of Sunday's game with a knee injury and did not return. The Raiders did not offer up much detail about the injury, but the team also plays on Thursday night. Even without specifics it seems like Jacobs is unlikely to play on a short week. Knee injuries for RBs tend to result in multiple games missed, but until we have specifics it is hard to offer a projection.
WR Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings | Chest/Rib Injury | Projecting Week 16 Return.
Justin Jefferson managers are surely thinking, "Why can't we have nice things?" after the wide receiver was knocked out early with a chest/rib injury.
This is exactly the type of pass that Tom Brady was talking about when he was addressing how very few quarterbacks today have accountability to keep their receivers safe.
— Dominique Clare (@DomClare) December 10, 2023
I never want to see Justin Jefferson take a snap with Josh Dobbs again. pic.twitter.com/p1xQQVHFOY
Jefferson had to be taken to a nearby hospital, meaning that the team's medical doctors were at least concerned about a rib fracture, which can result in pneumothorax (collapsed lung) if not treated properly.
If Jefferson had a rib fracture, he will likely miss at least one game. A rib contusion does not necessarily mean Jefferson avoids time missed. Since 2017, 60% of NFL WRs have missed one game with a rib contusion/injury.
Those who held onto Jefferson through his IR stint might have to wait another week following his most recent injury.
RB Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings | Ankle Injury | Projecting Week 18 Return
Alexander Mattison was unable to finish Week 14's game with an ankle injury. By video, it did appear that Mattison sustained the dreaded high ankle sprain, which carries, on average, a 3.5-week absence for NFL RBs.
A low-grade (inversion) ankle sprain also typically results in time missed (~2 weeks), so it is very possible that Mattison is going to be another player that is not available for most of the fantasy football playoffs. Ty Chandler is a great add this week for teams that are thin at RB.
RB Jerome Ford, Cleveland Browns | Wrist Injury | Projecting Week 15 Return
Jerome Ford needed X-rays on his wrist due to an injury. The severity of his injury is unclear at this time. A fracture would net multiple weeks missed, while a sprain would be fairly minor and could result in minimal time missed. Check back on Tuesday as we update Ford's availability.
Tuesday Update: Word out of Cleveland is that Ford avoided a wrist fracture. He still could miss time depending on the severity of his sprain but his chances of playing in Week 15 went up exponentially.
QB C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans | Concussion | Projecting Week 16 Return
C.J. Stroud is in the concussion protocol after a rough game Sunday versus the New York Jets. Typically, players this season have missed one game due to concussions, and this aligns with historical trends. However, since Week 10, five out of eight offensive, fantasy-relevant players listed with a concussion have not missed any time. It could be a coincidence or it could be that teams being more lax with the concussion protocol, with injuries pilling up and fewer options later in the season. Nevertheless, I have conservatively projected Stroud to miss one game.
WR Nico Collins, Houston Texans | Calf Injury | Projecting Week 17 Return
Nico Collins appeared to re-aggravate a calf injury he was dealing with and, as a result, did not finish the game in Week 14. On average, NFL WRs miss two weeks with calf injuries. Additionally, as with most soft tissue injuries, calf strains carry a moderate re-injury risk of 10%. The injury bug has taken hold of the Houston passing game these past few weeks.
WR Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins |Ankle Injury (likely high ankle) | Projecting Week 17 Return
Tyreek Hill was on the receiving end of everyone in fantasy football least favorite tackle - the drop hip tackle. By video it appeared that Hill sustained a high ankle sprain. Hill was able to jog off the field and eventually returned to the game in a limited role but he spent the majority of the game on the sidelines.
Similar to RBs, WRs also see a sharp decline in fantasy production following a high ankle sprain. On average fantasy points per game decrease by 17%. This would not be a huge blow to Hill's upside considering he is the WR1 is all formats, but that is not the worst of it. Typically WRs miss 4 weeks with a high ankle sprain and only 28% of the sample missed 0 or 1 games due to injury.
Miami will have decisions to make as the NFL playoffs are approaching and their offense was not the same with Hill missing. It's possible Hill is shut down for a few weeks so that his ankle is able to heal. This would be an absolute blow to fantasy teams as most managers in first place probably had Hill on their roster.